40 Trillion in 2025

3,751 Views | 32 Replies | Last: 5 mo ago by TTUArmy
jamey
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AG
This deserves it's own topic. This will impact business and investing. I think its a just a question what to do in the short and long term.

And how long is the short term at this point


themissinglink
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AG
Who knew both parties believed in MMT? The magical thinking populists have taken over both parties.

The US dollar index is down 10% YTD and have to believe that trend continues.
SF2004
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AG
themissinglink said:

Who knew both parties believed in MMT? The magical thinking populists have taken over both parties.

The US dollar index is down 10% YTD and have to believe that trend continues.
We have bombers that can take off from Missouri and take a **** on you in the desert of Iran.

Our military might and defense spending will keep us on top for now.
Yukon Cornelius
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Government needs new buyers of debt. Stable coin issuers will be that. Tom Lee ( and I agree with him) believes stable coin providers will become the number one US debt holder. (Currently 12).

I'm dubbing it a national bail in no one will notice.
newbie11
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I remember in 1992 when Ross Perot ran for president. National debt was 4 trillion and many many people thought that debt level was unsustainable. Now here we are….
clobby
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AgOutsideAustin
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newbie11 said:

I remember in 1992 when Ross Perot ran for president. National debt was 4 trillion and many many people thought that debt level was unsustainable. Now here we are….


I liked his charts.
YouBet
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I've done what I think I can do.

1. Paid off all debt.
2. Moved out of big city.
3. Decreased discretionary expenses.
4. De-risking portfolio a little earlier than originally planned.
5. Lost more guns and ammo in the bay.
Proposition Joe
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I kinda think if #2 and #5 really come into play, then #1 doesn't matter.
YouBet
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Proposition Joe said:

I kinda think if #2 and #5 really come into play, then #1 doesn't matter.


Valid although #2 I think is more independent of it from POV that I get to avoid higher crime, higher stress from overcrowding, higher cost of living, noise pollution, sight pollution, etc.
jamey
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I don't think there will be an escape. It just won't be the land of opportunity and prosperity any longer. There won't be a global super power to calm the waters so the likes of Russia and China will be more free to do as they please.

I seriously doubt we're more free. Good times from all the money printing has created weak men so I dont like our odds


techno-ag
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National debt only becomes a "problem" when Republicans are in office. When the next Dem president gets in there, the media and talking heads won't worry about it anymore. Have seen this pattern play out all my life.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
jamey
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techno-ag said:

National debt only becomes a "problem" when Republicans are in office. When the next Dem president gets in there, the media and talking heads won't worry about it anymore. Have seen this pattern play out all my life.


Its been a problem for almost 2 decades as far as Im concerned


I dont give a damn who's in office but what should be obvious is it doesn't matter. Rs and Ds are both children when it comes to handling our tax money
techno-ag
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jamey said:

techno-ag said:

National debt only becomes a "problem" when Republicans are in office. When the next Dem president gets in there, the media and talking heads won't worry about it anymore. Have seen this pattern play out all my life.


Its been a problem for almost 2 decades as car as im concerned


I dont give a damn who's in office but what should be obvious is it doesn't matter. Rs and Ds are both children when it comes to handling our tax money
It's too bad you never made that point when Biden was in office. Then you might have some credibility.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
HECUBUS
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AG
Gullible finger pointing grift enablers have been and will always be the majority voter.Politics rely on this. It's an unstoppable train wreck in progress like all things human. No civilization has ever figured this out. Don't hold your breath.
YouBet
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techno-ag said:

National debt only becomes a "problem" when Republicans are in office. When the next Dem president gets in there, the media and talking heads won't worry about it anymore. Have seen this pattern play out all my life.


True. The added element this time around is that with the Republicans in control we were told we were going to cut spending and balance the budget. But now that we have heard "how" we are going to do that it just doesn't seem realistic from a mathematical standpoint.

Thus the disappointment and calls for it being a problem by the right this time as well. Trump won't be around long enough for us to really know if it will work either because as soon as the Dems get back in office they will simply reverse everything and put us right back on a path of left wing destruction.
jamey
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techno-ag said:

jamey said:

techno-ag said:

National debt only becomes a "problem" when Republicans are in office. When the next Dem president gets in there, the media and talking heads won't worry about it anymore. Have seen this pattern play out all my life.


Its been a problem for almost 2 decades as car as im concerned


I dont give a damn who's in office but what should be obvious is it doesn't matter. Rs and Ds are both children when it comes to handling our tax money
It's too bad you never made that point when Biden was in office. Then you might have some credibility.


Ive been posting about it for almost 2 decades. Long before, during and now after Biden. Ive been extremely consistent, expanding my point to include the people who think politics is entertainment. They always have an excuse for their team

Its you who has no credibility, making up excuses. Ive heard them all over the decades. You're just another excuse maker. Clinging to your team
techno-ag
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jamey said:

techno-ag said:

jamey said:

techno-ag said:

National debt only becomes a "problem" when Republicans are in office. When the next Dem president gets in there, the media and talking heads won't worry about it anymore. Have seen this pattern play out all my life.


Its been a problem for almost 2 decades as car as im concerned


I dont give a damn who's in office but what should be obvious is it doesn't matter. Rs and Ds are both children when it comes to handling our tax money
It's too bad you never made that point when Biden was in office. Then you might have some credibility.


Ive been posting about it for almost 2 decades. Long before, during and now after Biden.


Links?
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
jamey
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techno-ag said:

jamey said:

techno-ag said:

jamey said:

techno-ag said:

National debt only becomes a "problem" when Republicans are in office. When the next Dem president gets in there, the media and talking heads won't worry about it anymore. Have seen this pattern play out all my life.


Its been a problem for almost 2 decades as car as im concerned


I dont give a damn who's in office but what should be obvious is it doesn't matter. Rs and Ds are both children when it comes to handling our tax money
It's too bad you never made that point when Biden was in office. Then you might have some credibility.


Ive been posting about it for almost 2 decades. Long before, during and now after Biden.


Links?


Go fish you childish twit. Ive made 100s of posts on the subject over the decades
techno-ag
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jamey said:

techno-ag said:

jamey said:

techno-ag said:

jamey said:

techno-ag said:

National debt only becomes a "problem" when Republicans are in office. When the next Dem president gets in there, the media and talking heads won't worry about it anymore. Have seen this pattern play out all my life.


Its been a problem for almost 2 decades as car as im concerned


I dont give a damn who's in office but what should be obvious is it doesn't matter. Rs and Ds are both children when it comes to handling our tax money
It's too bad you never made that point when Biden was in office. Then you might have some credibility.


Ive been posting about it for almost 2 decades. Long before, during and now after Biden.


Links?


Go fish you childish twit. Ive made 100s of posts on the subject over the decades


Ok. So, no links.

I thought as much. My assertion stands. The debt is only a problem when Republicans are in charge.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
Its Texas Aggies, dammit
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I think the Fed will use negative real rates to inflate away the debt. This hidden tax on savers is a manipulation favoring Wall Street that causes asset bubbles and helps the financial elite at the expense of ordinary people. Nothing stops this train. I'm buying stuff they cannot print.
permabull
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jamey
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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

I think the Fed will use negative real rates to inflate away the debt. This hidden tax on savers is a manipulation favoring Wall Street that causes asset bubbles and helps the financial elite at the expense of ordinary people. Nothing stops this train. I'm buying stuff they cannot print.



Like what? I dont have the money to buy a rental. I dont want that much debt in this environment, at least not woth that big of an investment

Wonder if there's an ETF or mutual fund thats real solid long term
Its Texas Aggies, dammit
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jamey said:

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

I think the Fed will use negative real rates to inflate away the debt. This hidden tax on savers is a manipulation favoring Wall Street that causes asset bubbles and helps the financial elite at the expense of ordinary people. Nothing stops this train. I'm buying stuff they cannot print.



Like what? I dont have the money to buy a rental. I dont want that much debt in this environment, at least not woth that big of an investment

Wonder if there's an ETF or mutual fund thats real solid long term


You won't like my answer. Bitcoin in cold storage, Bitcoin ETFs, gold are what I prefer.
Black Tooth Grin
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jamey said:

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

I think the Fed will use negative real rates to inflate away the debt. This hidden tax on savers is a manipulation favoring Wall Street that causes asset bubbles and helps the financial elite at the expense of ordinary people. Nothing stops this train. I'm buying stuff they cannot print.



Like what? I dont have the money to buy a rental. I dont want that much debt in this environment, at least not woth that big of an investment

Wonder if there's an ETF or mutual fund thats real solid long term
So in relative terms:
- The rental is an appreciating asset
- The dollar is a depreciating asset
- The debt/note that the bank is potentially holding is a depreciating asset secured against the rental.

I understand that the debt may be more difficult to service in an inflationary environment, but I would look at it as letting the bank take the risk on that note as long as I know I won't default.
Kansas Kid
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techno-ag said:

National debt only becomes a "problem" when Republicans are in office. When the next Dem president gets in there, the media and talking heads won't worry about it anymore. Have seen this pattern play out all my life.

National debt is only a problem to Republicans when they are out of power and they then run on getting it under control. Once they are in power, they get amnesia.

The Dems never make it a key issue only passing comments when they are out of power.

The only time we seem to have any austerity at all is a Rep Congress and Dem President.
Dan Scott
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Kansas Kid said:

techno-ag said:

National debt only becomes a "problem" when Republicans are in office. When the next Dem president gets in there, the media and talking heads won't worry about it anymore. Have seen this pattern play out all my life.

National debt is only a problem to Republicans when they are out of power and they then run on getting it under control. Once they are in power, they get amnesia.

The Dems never make it a key issue only passing comments when they are out of power.

The only time we seem to have any austerity at all is a Rep Congress and Dem President.


I think 2013 when only year there was actual year over year spending cuts. Boehner and Obama. And Boehner was considered a lib so think about that anytime people throw out the lib/conservative label at somebody.
jamey
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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

jamey said:

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

I think the Fed will use negative real rates to inflate away the debt. This hidden tax on savers is a manipulation favoring Wall Street that causes asset bubbles and helps the financial elite at the expense of ordinary people. Nothing stops this train. I'm buying stuff they cannot print.



Like what? I dont have the money to buy a rental. I dont want that much debt in this environment, at least not woth that big of an investment

Wonder if there's an ETF or mutual fund thats real solid long term


You won't like my answer. Bitcoin in cold storage, Bitcoin ETFs, gold are what I prefer.


Ive been increasing my bitcoin ETF holdings but im only at about 3% of portfolio
jagvocate
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It's almost as if the money lenders are in control!

94chem
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YouBet said:

I've done what I think I can do.

1. Paid off all debt.
2. Moved out of big city.
3. Decreased discretionary expenses.
4. De-risking portfolio a little earlier than originally planned.
5. Lost more guns and ammo in the bay.


Guessing you were "must see tv" around the water cooler before Y2K.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
YouBet
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94chem said:

YouBet said:

I've done what I think I can do.

1. Paid off all debt.
2. Moved out of big city.
3. Decreased discretionary expenses.
4. De-risking portfolio a little earlier than originally planned.
5. Lost more guns and ammo in the bay.


Guessing you were "must see tv" around the water cooler before Y2K.


You are going to love this. I led a Y2K project.
94chem
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YouBet said:

94chem said:

YouBet said:

I've done what I think I can do.

1. Paid off all debt.
2. Moved out of big city.
3. Decreased discretionary expenses.
4. De-risking portfolio a little earlier than originally planned.
5. Lost more guns and ammo in the bay.


Guessing you were "must see tv" around the water cooler before Y2K.


You are going to love this. I led a Y2K project.


Good one. Welcome to the year 19100!
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
TTUArmy
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We're not paying this debt off. We're not growing out of this. The Fed will cut interest rates and inflation will be freaking brutal. Bond yields will break higher with fewer buyers/suckers buying our debt. It's a vicious cycle that gets worse and worse as bonds mature and debt has to be refinanced at higher rates.

Japan and England are in deep **** with their bond market. I think Japan is the first domino to fall, catching a lot of big outfits in a Yen carry trade squeeze. From there...we see a world-wide melt down in markets.

Have assets with no counter party risk; outside the current central bank system...BTC...gold...silver...land which is paid off.
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