Anyone getting out before the rate cut for fear of a sell the news event?

What about IWM going up on rate cuts?

I'm going to hold. Keeping a small bit out that has been out in case there are a few deals, but nothing game changing.

#itspricedin

Goldman is predicting 3 rate cuts through end of year. Thought that was aggressive. We shall see.

*SENATE CONFIRMS MIRAN TO FED IN TIME FOR INTEREST RATE MEETING

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 16, 2025

YouBet said:

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Goldman is predicting 3 rate cuts through end of year. Thought that was aggressive. We shall see.

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woof. That ultimately means the economy is cooling that much.

Imho it means Trump wants to pump the market.

The individual dot plots are going to be interesting tomorrow.

Tex117 said:

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YouBet said:

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Goldman is predicting 3 rate cuts through end of year. Thought that was aggressive. We shall see.

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woof. That ultimately means the economy is cooling that much.

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Labor numbers are bad. If inflation doesn't rise much, they'll keep cutting.

GeorgiAg said:

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Tex117 said:

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YouBet said:

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Goldman is predicting 3 rate cuts through end of year. Thought that was aggressive. We shall see.

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woof. That ultimately means the economy is cooling that much.

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Labor numbers are bad. If inflation doesn't rise much, they'll keep cutting.

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Inflation is already ticking up...and with labor sinking...

A small cut tomorrow wont effect much I don't think...but I think we are in for a weird ride over the next 6 months.

GeorgiAg said:

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I'm going to sit tight. I think there will be more rate cuts later this year.

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Wow that's really going out on a limb

Rate cuts, assuming labor stays constant or picks up slightly, mean assets are likely to shoot to the moon, no?

No one knows. If we are headed for recession then probably not. If we aren't headed there, then maybe we ride for the moon, but inflation is going to make it a bumpy ride regardless.

Are we getting closer to the house of cards falling?

We're in a double dip recession. AI capex is contributing more to GDP than PCE (PCE is usually about 2/3) of the metric. There's a very specific slice of the economy that is sustaining any positive trends observed. We're coming off of $15T in stimulus in the past 5 years and just had to wipe 1M make believe jobs off the books. The fact that every Uber and door dash driver is out there creating EINs is throwing the BLS birth/death model into a tailspin.

There's no silver bullet. They need to just let it crash and see what survives.

So if you had a cash stockpile to add to your taxable brokerage account, you'd hold a bit longer before dumping in?

Me personally I was close to 50% cash as of a week or two ago after booking a bunch of long term gains and moving brokerages. I am now 30%-33% cash after a pretty significant buy in since and plan to use it to buy in on any steep drawdowns and sell weekly options a good ways out of the money for a little extra cash generation.

If you want to mitigate risk around events like this, there's lots of ways to do that. Throw in a chunk now ahead of a volatility event, another chunk after that dust settles, and keep a 3rd or even 4th chunk to rotate in as the calendar months flip along.

History says you are better off going all in more often than not, but there's plenty of examples where that's not the case, but a minority. Rarely ever will timing the market within a couple months result in life changing degree of wealth unless you time it right or wrong multiple times.

Ducks4brkfast said:

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Ghost of Bisbee said:

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So if you had a cash stockpile to add to your taxable brokerage account, you'd hold a bit longer before dumping in?

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Not me. Time in the market is more important than timing the market. IMO.

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Agreed. There is a ton of analysis out there showing simulated returns if you were either in the market the N best days of the period or out of the market the N worst days of the period. Most of those come down to a simple reality - you're never going to get timing right and missing one good day or being in the market for one bad day can have a significant impact on overall returns.

The thing that worries me here on a sell the news event is a couple pieces. First, the market is extremely concentrated and second, passive management. There's a big group out there that thinks they are diversified but really aren't...they own nvidia and broadcom for their equity exposure then own some index funds for their diversification...problem is their index fund is primarily nvidia. When the passive algorithm sees red, it sells. If it doesn't have the cash to satisfy redemptions, it sells more...if it sells more, it sees red and sells. Passive is over 50% of market cap.

I'm out of etfs for the time being.

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So if you had a cash stockpile to add to your taxable brokerage account, you'd hold a bit longer before dumping in?

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That's what I am doing. Read about what Buffet is doing with the cashpile at Berkshire. His famous "Buffet Indicator" is at 217%. He has said in the past that anything above 200% is "playing with fire".

I think we will get a .25% rate cut but the markets will crash broadly soon after.

It's gone up a lot expecting .25 so meeting the expectation will be disappointment as it is not better than that.

Ghost of Bisbee said:

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So if you had a cash stockpile to add to your taxable brokerage account, you'd hold a bit longer before dumping in?

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If going all in bothers you (which, mentally, yeah, understandable why), then just Dollar Cost Average it in over the course of like 6 months or a year.

If it does it'll be a heck of a buying opportunity

The day is young.

GeorgiAg said:

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I'm going to sit tight. I think there will be more rate cuts later this year.

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Buy low, sell high.

Follow my Twitter/X account for more insight and investment strategies.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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If it does it'll be a heck of a buying opportunity

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I'm waiting patiently!!

Kinda meh so far

Sims said:

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We're in a double dip recession. AI capex is contributing more to GDP than PCE (PCE is usually about 2/3) of the metric. There's a very specific slice of the economy that is sustaining any positive trends observed. We're coming off of $15T in stimulus in the past 5 years and just had to wipe 1M make believe jobs off the books. The fact that every Uber and door dash driver is out there creating EINs is throwing the BLS birth/death model into a tailspin.

There's no silver bullet. They need to just let it crash and see what survives.

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This guy understands. So much of the funds is concentrated in a few stocks. Fed action has been propping up this market for years now.

Next Chair will be picked on cutting rates

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Trump responded "yes" when asked in an interview with Politico if a quick reduction of borrowing costs would be a litmus test for his handpicked central bank leader.

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Trump earlier this year repeatedly called for the Fed to get its benchmark down below 2%, versus the current target of 3.75% to 4%. Powell and his colleagues are widely expected to take the benchmark down by 25 basis points in a decision due Wednesday.

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If rates were cut under 2% right now, what impact would that have on the economy both short term and long term? If the new chair and the rest of the board don't make this happen, does Trump look to try to find a way to force it to happen?

1970s Stagflation Trade