Volatility and downturn/corrections are good things. It allows markets to reset and recalibrate.

I don't see this fundamentally changing the prevailing bull market.

This is going to stop global trade and force things to repeat COVID. How long did it take to get back 'to normal' after the 'two week' shutdown?

If you start pushing ships through the straits, you risk getting hit. Insurance goes up; costs will have to go up. Once tanks holding oil & products fill up, you'll have to stop producing them.

30% of the world fertilizer goes through there, as well as oil and gas (~25% IIRC). All Iran has to do it hit a few ships and drive the system into chaos.

Iran only has to be lucky once; the defense has to be perfect, all the time.

~egon

The people who really know the answer to this don't post on Texags. Everything posted here is speculation.

MRB10 said:

---

The people who really know the answer to this don't post on Texags. Everything posted here is speculation.

---

I don't know about that...

TexAgs know things. Otherwise, I wouldn't have become part of the furniture around here.

Only the OB knows things. Everything you all do is gambling.

bitcoin is flat over the last two years. can yall tell me where that will be too in 6 months or a year while we're at it?

Markets tend to overshoot on expectations in both directions. We're going to have down days and up days along the way, and my personal strategy is going to be to continue my normal course investing while supplementing returns with volatility harvesting.

You cannot time the market. That is gambling. If you purchase financially solid companies over time, you will be fine. Dollar cost average.

Anyone who points to a time in the past where they successfully timed the market is the same as a guy who picked the correct number on the roulette.

You can be smart - when the US starts amassing a huge military force in a region, it is reasonable to assume there will be a conflict such as we are seeing now. Also, there might be some market volatility after the midterms. The Democrats are likely to overtake the House and perhaps even the Senate. That will grind Trumps agenda to a halt.

GeorgiAg said:

---

You cannot time the market. That is gambling. If you purchase financially solid companies over time, you will be fine. Dollar cost average.

Anyone who points to a time in the past where they successfully timed the market is the same as a guy who picked the correct number on the roulette.

You can be smart - when the US starts amassing a huge military force in a region, it is reasonable to assume there will be a conflict such as we are seeing now. Also, there might be some market volatility after the midterms. The Democrats are likely to overtake the House and perhaps even the Senate. That will grind Trumps agenda to a halt.

---

People who say things like this are just admitting they have absolutely no idea how to tell the difference between a healthy market and a risky one. You don't have to sell an exact top, nor buy an exact bottom, to easily outperform a DCA approach. That's if you know what to look for.

Below is what's called negative divergence. It's what happens when price continues to make higher highs on continually weakening upward momentum. It signals an approaching or completed end to a trend and a reversal upcoming. The steeper the price move and longer the timeframe, the likely more severe the selloff will be. Just look at 2023 - 2025 divergence which was less severely sloped and led to a major selloff that could have easily been avoided had one had the foresight to de-risk into the weakening.

i'm sorry. but your constant assertions about how simple it is to beat DCA are hilarious given that the best minds in the business fail to consistently beat out the S&P.

Furlock Bones said:

---

i'm sorry. but your constant assertions about how simple it is to beat DCA are hilarious given that the best minds in the business fail to consistently beat out the S&P.

---

Those "best minds" participate in the herding more than anyone else, and often drive it.

You can read their sentiment on a chart. What you can't easily do is time it. That's why being able to determine structurally strong vs structurally weak is pivotal.

And yall are right. The majority aren't capable. That's because it's against the very nature of economics and logical thought to believe that markets are driven in an emergent way by mass sentiment and herding. This is why the majority are at their most fearful once a bottom has already occurred, and most euphoric after a top has already occurred.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Furlock Bones said:

---

i'm sorry. but your constant assertions about how simple it is to beat DCA are hilarious given that the best minds in the business fail to consistently beat out the S&P.

---

Those "best minds" participate in the herding more than anyone else, and often drive it.

You can read their sentiment on a chart. What you can't easily do is time it. That's why being able to determine structurally strong vs structurally weak is pivotal.

And yall are right. The majority aren't capable. That's because it's against the very nature of economics and logical thought to believe that markets are driven in an emergent way by mass sentiment and herding. This is why the majority are at their most fearful once a bottom has already occurred, and most euphoric after a top has already occurred.

---

Therefore those who have figured it out must have amassed multiple private islands, right?

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

GeorgiAg said:

---

You cannot time the market. That is gambling. If you purchase financially solid companies over time, you will be fine. Dollar cost average.

Anyone who points to a time in the past where they successfully timed the market is the same as a guy who picked the correct number on the roulette.

You can be smart - when the US starts amassing a huge military force in a region, it is reasonable to assume there will be a conflict such as we are seeing now. Also, there might be some market volatility after the midterms. The Democrats are likely to overtake the House and perhaps even the Senate. That will grind Trumps agenda to a halt.

---

People who say things like this are just admitting they have absolutely no idea how to tell the difference between a healthy market and a risky one. You don't have to sell an exact top, nor buy an exact bottom, to easily outperform a DCA approach. That's if you know what to look for.

Below is what's called negative divergence. It's what happens when price continues to make higher highs on continually weakening upward momentum. It signals an approaching or completed end to a trend and a reversal upcoming. The steeper the price move and longer the timeframe, the likely more severe the selloff will be. Just look at 2023 - 2025 divergence which was less severely sloped and led to a major selloff that could have easily been avoided had one had the foresight to de-risk into the weakening.

---

lol. This take reminds me of the three ladies who started an investment newsletter because their stock selections outperformed the market significantly. Their fan base grew. Then a journalist reviewed their finances and determined that they had actually incorrectly calculated their returns and that they had actually lagged the market by 3% per year the whole time.

Reminds me also of a thread where a Texags user who had similar confidence about market predictions posted "buy now" or "sit out" and his performance was bad over time, and the thread went quiet.

Wrighty said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

GeorgiAg said:

---

You cannot time the market. That is gambling. If you purchase financially solid companies over time, you will be fine. Dollar cost average.

Anyone who points to a time in the past where they successfully timed the market is the same as a guy who picked the correct number on the roulette.

You can be smart - when the US starts amassing a huge military force in a region, it is reasonable to assume there will be a conflict such as we are seeing now. Also, there might be some market volatility after the midterms. The Democrats are likely to overtake the House and perhaps even the Senate. That will grind Trumps agenda to a halt.

---

People who say things like this are just admitting they have absolutely no idea how to tell the difference between a healthy market and a risky one. You don't have to sell an exact top, nor buy an exact bottom, to easily outperform a DCA approach. That's if you know what to look for.

Below is what's called negative divergence. It's what happens when price continues to make higher highs on continually weakening upward momentum. It signals an approaching or completed end to a trend and a reversal upcoming. The steeper the price move and longer the timeframe, the likely more severe the selloff will be. Just look at 2023 - 2025 divergence which was less severely sloped and led to a major selloff that could have easily been avoided had one had the foresight to de-risk into the weakening.

---

lol. This take reminds me of the three ladies who started an investment newsletter because their stock selections outperformed the market significantly. Their fan base grew. Then a journalist reviewed their finances and determined that they had actually incorrectly calculated their returns and that they had actually lagged the market by 3% per year the whole time.

Reminds me also of a thread where a Texags user who had similar confidence about market predictions posted "buy now" or "sit out" and his performance was bad over time, and the thread went quiet.

---

Not mention.. Houston, we have a problem oil bust is imminent and I Mr I went all cash.

Ducks4brkfast said:

---

Wrighty said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

GeorgiAg said:

---

You cannot time the market. That is gambling. If you purchase financially solid companies over time, you will be fine. Dollar cost average.

Anyone who points to a time in the past where they successfully timed the market is the same as a guy who picked the correct number on the roulette.

You can be smart - when the US starts amassing a huge military force in a region, it is reasonable to assume there will be a conflict such as we are seeing now. Also, there might be some market volatility after the midterms. The Democrats are likely to overtake the House and perhaps even the Senate. That will grind Trumps agenda to a halt.

---

People who say things like this are just admitting they have absolutely no idea how to tell the difference between a healthy market and a risky one. You don't have to sell an exact top, nor buy an exact bottom, to easily outperform a DCA approach. That's if you know what to look for.

Below is what's called negative divergence. It's what happens when price continues to make higher highs on continually weakening upward momentum. It signals an approaching or completed end to a trend and a reversal upcoming. The steeper the price move and longer the timeframe, the likely more severe the selloff will be. Just look at 2023 - 2025 divergence which was less severely sloped and led to a major selloff that could have easily been avoided had one had the foresight to de-risk into the weakening.

---

lol. This take reminds me of the three ladies who started an investment newsletter because their stock selections outperformed the market significantly. Their fan base grew. Then a journalist reviewed their finances and determined that they had actually incorrectly calculated their returns and that they had actually lagged the market by 3% per year the whole time.

Reminds me also of a thread where a Texags user who had similar confidence about market predictions posted "buy now" or "sit out" and his performance was bad over time, and the thread went quiet.

---

Not mention.. Houston, we have a problem oil bust is imminent and I Mr I went all cash.

---

hey, the oil market did go bust. He was absolutely right.

My guess is the Iran War will be over soon as Trump doesn't want to see high oil prices cause more GOP losses in the midterms. I think the economy will recover from the war quickly if that happens, but the economy was already sluggish with inflation running hot and employment lackluster; I suspect the economy will be a little worse off by year end, but how that affects asset prices is a crapshoot. In the short-term, asset prices aren't tethered to the economy or reality for that matter. I get the feeling most investors have FOMO and will just hold through it all like they have since 2009.

More than the Iran War, I'm more concerned about USD inflation accelerating and/or a meme asset bubbles bursting. That is when asset prices will probably experience a large drawdown with a long recovery; something he haven't experienced in almost 2 decades.