Is the bond market on its way down? Rate cuts arent coming anytime soon at best and theres less and less buyers of US debt as the spend continues. Seems like something has to give and rates going higher is a likely answer
Post Reply
1 of 1
Anyone getting nervous about bond market?
3,464 Views |
28 Replies |
Last: 16 days ago by SteveBott
I am. I still think lower rates are coming but I've been wrong the last couple years.
Troglodyte said:
I am. I still think lower rates are coming but I've been wrong the last couple years.
Yeah, I dont know for aure either but its a concern
Even if the fed lowers rates at Trumps bidding thats just the short end. Maybe stablecoins can sop up a lot of short term bonds
Still gotta have buyers at longer duration and right now countries are selling.
I'm still thinking (maybe hoping) Iran gets resolved, oil prices drop, inflation is under control and rates drop. I think that's base case, but clearly lots of room for alternative scenarios.
Troglodyte said:
I'm still thinking (maybe hoping) Iran gets resolved, oil prices drop, inflation is under control and rates drop. I think that's base case, but clearly lots of room for alternative scenarios.
I wonder what happens to the IRGC people that are apparently in charge if the war ends in a way that doesnt just let Iran go back to doing nukes, controlling the strait, rebuilding their military...etc. Basically if it doesnt go back to like it was and all we did was kick the can down the road 5 years. Best case they lose power and influence and live
If we go back to what it was, they live. Otherwise, not so sure and likewise its hard to see them saying ok, you win for the best interest of the people of Iran or whatever.
Seems to me like they probably win and nothing changes or they lose and lose big. I dont see why they'd back down, other than something extremely temporary and a lie
I dont know why they wouldn't just take the Putin playbook. Right now they arent even pretending to agree to anything. I think pretending is the next step. But maybe we pretend they changed something
what are bonds
A former World Bank president has sounded the alarm, revealing that the Federal Reserve has lost over a trillion dollars—and counting—turning it into nothing more than a massive hedge fund for the rich and powerful.
— redpillbot (@redpillb0t) May 2, 2026
He claims the Fed is borrowing money from banks at 5.4%… pic.twitter.com/54WpvxguPq
Do people not believe in cycles anymore? I thought the bull market in bonds from early 80s to Covid lows was pretty obvious in its change to higher rates and a new bond bear cycle starting after the Covid breakdown low in interest rates. Bottom line: enjoy the temporary pullbacks in rates, because we'll be higher for longer soon
jagvocate said:
Bottom line: enjoy the temporary pullbacks in rates, because we'll be higher for longer soon
Thats why I got out of my bonds. I've made decent money on it for bonds. Seems like it's time to find something else till the next train comes
We should probably call out that y'all are talking about government bonds (I assume) of which I own none.
We do have a muni bond ladder though.
We do have a muni bond ladder though.
I basically have access to my 401K broad market bonds and those are 50% gov, 25% Securitized and 23% Corporate
Muni is only 0.47%
I have another bond fund but its still Gov 27% and Securitized 38%. The rest is about the same
Muni is only 0.47%
I have another bond fund but its still Gov 27% and Securitized 38%. The rest is about the same
Notice the volatility at the far right. Someone wants out and someone is buying immediately. More like a penny stock or meme coin
🚨NOW: VIOLENT BOND MARKET MOVES SPARK LIQUIDATION SPECULATION
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) May 4, 2026
The U.S. 30Y Treasury yield reportedly spiked from 4.97% to 5.03% multiple times within minutes, fueling speculation that a major player may have aggressively dumped Treasuries into the market.
While it could be a… pic.twitter.com/vFkIQd2Se8
The US bond market is in serious trouble.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 4, 2026
As new reports emerge of Iranian drone attacks on the UAE's energy infrastructure, yields are surging.
The 10Y Note Yield is now up to 4.45%, nearing the same level that resulted in the ceasefire and the April 2025 "90-day tariff… pic.twitter.com/bEyqY4WuUs
The bond market is collapsing again.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 29, 2026
The 10Y Note Yield is now silently back above 4.40%, the same exact level that has led to multiple market interventions by President Trump.
Simply put, the US economy cannot afford the 10Y Note Yield rising substantially above current… pic.twitter.com/GDHG6pWGTh
Bond markets are telling the future:
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 26, 2026
1. Trump paused tariffs with the 10Y Yield at 4.60%
2. Trump bought $200 billion of mortgage bonds with the 10Y Yield at 4.30%
3. Trump delayed Iran strikes with the 10Y Yield at 4.45%
4. Trump further delayed Iran strikes with the 10Y at… https://t.co/0yC2GR0WXJ
Is 5% all yall are looking for?
Comeby! said:
Is 5% all yall are looking for?
Im looking at both price and yield
Trump bought $51 million in bonds in March. My assumption is that expects rates to go down when Powell leaves. .
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-bought-least-51-million-bonds-march-disclosure-shows-2026-04-25/
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-bought-least-51-million-bonds-march-disclosure-shows-2026-04-25/
Worth separating the short end from the long end here. They're telling pretty different stories right now.
The recent move is mostly cyclical. Iran war pushed oil up 50%, that's flowing into inflation prints, Fed stays on hold, long end gets skittish. If Hormuz actually resolves, oil rolls over, headline inflation cools, and the Fed gets cover to cut. 10Y prints a 3-handle in the medium term in that scenario, not a 5-handle.
Long end is a different beast. Jagvocate's point is the right one. 30Y above 5% is term premium widening, which is fiscal-credibility driven, not inflation driven. That doesn't go away with a ceasefire. It's structural.
Stablecoins are underappreciated at the short end. GENIUS Act formalized issuers parking reserves in T-bills, and Treasury's been front-loading bill issuance to lean on that demand. New structural buyer that didn't exist five years ago. Doesn't fix the long end but takes real pressure off the front.
The "foreign selling" narrative is also noisier than it looks. A lot of the gold buying since 2022 is sanctions optionality post-Russia-freeze IMO, not a directional bet against USD. Reserve managers can accumulate gold AND keep USTs...those aren't mutually exclusive, and the buyer list (Poland, India, Singapore alongside China and Turkey) doesn't fit a clean dollar-doom story.
The personnel matter more than people are crediting. Bessent was the Soros PM whose UK housing analysis put Druckenmiller on the Black Wednesday trade in '92, and the guy pushing to size up at the climax. He literally helped break the Bank of England. Knows what it looks like when a managed currency regime hits its limit, from the winning side. Activist Treasury issuance, the Argentina swap line, UAE swap line reportedly in the works, GENIUS Act push for stablecoin demand... that's global-macro playbook for managing front-end demand and dollar liquidity directly, without going through the Fed.
Warsh brings the other half. He's openly floating a new "Fed/Treasury Accord" direct echo of 1951. Tells you how he's thinking: coordinated balance sheet and issuance management, both institutions in tandem.
Doesn't guarantee it works. But the resume is real and the moves fit running the late innings without a disorderly break.
Net for me: medium-term rates lower, dollar stays firm, long end remains the structural pressure point. Nothing Fed or Treasury can do unless spending changes - long term is a political problem and not a monetary one. Watching term premium more than nominal yield as the actual signal.
The recent move is mostly cyclical. Iran war pushed oil up 50%, that's flowing into inflation prints, Fed stays on hold, long end gets skittish. If Hormuz actually resolves, oil rolls over, headline inflation cools, and the Fed gets cover to cut. 10Y prints a 3-handle in the medium term in that scenario, not a 5-handle.
Long end is a different beast. Jagvocate's point is the right one. 30Y above 5% is term premium widening, which is fiscal-credibility driven, not inflation driven. That doesn't go away with a ceasefire. It's structural.
Stablecoins are underappreciated at the short end. GENIUS Act formalized issuers parking reserves in T-bills, and Treasury's been front-loading bill issuance to lean on that demand. New structural buyer that didn't exist five years ago. Doesn't fix the long end but takes real pressure off the front.
The "foreign selling" narrative is also noisier than it looks. A lot of the gold buying since 2022 is sanctions optionality post-Russia-freeze IMO, not a directional bet against USD. Reserve managers can accumulate gold AND keep USTs...those aren't mutually exclusive, and the buyer list (Poland, India, Singapore alongside China and Turkey) doesn't fit a clean dollar-doom story.
The personnel matter more than people are crediting. Bessent was the Soros PM whose UK housing analysis put Druckenmiller on the Black Wednesday trade in '92, and the guy pushing to size up at the climax. He literally helped break the Bank of England. Knows what it looks like when a managed currency regime hits its limit, from the winning side. Activist Treasury issuance, the Argentina swap line, UAE swap line reportedly in the works, GENIUS Act push for stablecoin demand... that's global-macro playbook for managing front-end demand and dollar liquidity directly, without going through the Fed.
Warsh brings the other half. He's openly floating a new "Fed/Treasury Accord" direct echo of 1951. Tells you how he's thinking: coordinated balance sheet and issuance management, both institutions in tandem.
Doesn't guarantee it works. But the resume is real and the moves fit running the late innings without a disorderly break.
Net for me: medium-term rates lower, dollar stays firm, long end remains the structural pressure point. Nothing Fed or Treasury can do unless spending changes - long term is a political problem and not a monetary one. Watching term premium more than nominal yield as the actual signal.
The US bond market crisis is intensifying.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 12, 2026
While everyone is focused on AI and the Iran War, the US bond market is in a complete meltdown.
The 30Y Yield is now above 5.00% and the 10Y Yield is nearing the pivotal 4.50% level, which resulted in President Trump's "90-day tariff… pic.twitter.com/azEUScgw11
Sims said:
Worth separating the short end from the long end here. They're telling pretty different stories right now.
The recent move is mostly cyclical. Iran war pushed oil up 50%, that's flowing into inflation prints, Fed stays on hold, long end gets skittish. If Hormuz actually resolves, oil rolls over, headline inflation cools, and the Fed gets cover to cut. 10Y prints a 3-handle in the medium term in that scenario, not a 5-handle.
Long end is a different beast. Jagvocate's point is the right one. 30Y above 5% is term premium widening, which is fiscal-credibility driven, not inflation driven. That doesn't go away with a ceasefire. It's structural.
Stablecoins are underappreciated at the short end. GENIUS Act formalized issuers parking reserves in T-bills, and Treasury's been front-loading bill issuance to lean on that demand. New structural buyer that didn't exist five years ago. Doesn't fix the long end but takes real pressure off the front.
The "foreign selling" narrative is also noisier than it looks. A lot of the gold buying since 2022 is sanctions optionality post-Russia-freeze IMO, not a directional bet against USD. Reserve managers can accumulate gold AND keep USTs...those aren't mutually exclusive, and the buyer list (Poland, India, Singapore alongside China and Turkey) doesn't fit a clean dollar-doom story.
The personnel matter more than people are crediting. Bessent was the Soros PM whose UK housing analysis put Druckenmiller on the Black Wednesday trade in '92, and the guy pushing to size up at the climax. He literally helped break the Bank of England. Knows what it looks like when a managed currency regime hits its limit, from the winning side. Activist Treasury issuance, the Argentina swap line, UAE swap line reportedly in the works, GENIUS Act push for stablecoin demand... that's global-macro playbook for managing front-end demand and dollar liquidity directly, without going through the Fed.
Warsh brings the other half. He's openly floating a new "Fed/Treasury Accord" direct echo of 1951. Tells you how he's thinking: coordinated balance sheet and issuance management, both institutions in tandem.
Doesn't guarantee it works. But the resume is real and the moves fit running the late innings without a disorderly break.
Net for me: medium-term rates lower, dollar stays firm, long end remains the structural pressure point. Nothing Fed or Treasury can do unless spending changes - long term is a political problem and not a monetary one. Watching term premium more than nominal yield as the actual signal.
Damn Sims... that's a really good take sir. Thank you.
You know that was generated by an LLM right? Not trying to be insulting at all.
Quote:
Nothing Fed or Treasury can do unless spending changes - long term is a political problem and not a monetary one.
Not sure how we can say this when debt interest is now our #2 expense. It's a money problem right now. It should also already be a political problem but it's not and won't be until it's too late. And I would say it's already too late.
Stan Crowch said:
You know that was generated by an LLM right? Not trying to be insulting at all.
Certainly collaborative. Here's some of my prompting with Claude to work through that conversation. Claude is actually a much more productive steelman than most of the tribal, shallow remarks you'd find in the Politics board (as an example).
Quote:
Thoughts here? I tend to be in the camp that follows Soros' "imperial circle" and yields will likely come down in the mid term timeframe...USD is not doomed and in fact I think stablecoins are a boon for USD that will ultimately lower rates structurally.
https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/3606144
Quote:
on the imperial circle...think of it like a firework...it's the brightest before it explodes...I think USD fiat has a reckoning...I also think we're in the period of time that is the leadup...the long glittery ascension...before the fireworks explode
Quote:
i think gold ripping has less to do with usd decline than it does with the weaponization of swift during the biden admin. Gold is not a protection from hyperinflation to the degree i think it is sold (as used now) but I actually think the flight to gold is driven by 1) narrative and 2) bad actor countries that are walking down the path of potential sanction buying gold as optionality BACK TO USD if they so choose...staying in USD removes the optionality in a sanctions regime
Quote:
i would aditionally push back on gold reserves in central banks...people are going bonkers about "how much gold reserves have increased" but the actual tonnage may not be marginally different...the valuations have certainly skyrocketed which could be viewed as central banks "acquiriing" additional gold reserves whereas the reality may just be appreciation of the same thing they always had
Quote:
but 2nd derivative of holdings has flipped...central banks are still acquiring, but a slower pace than prior years and mean reverting ... possibly a net issue - they may be having to sell gold faster with rates up and oil revenues down chasing a source of liquidity to pay USD denominated debts
Quote:
Fair points all. Based on where we sit in this conversation...whats the read on the general mood in that thread and a helpful addition?
Quote:
Here's my voice re-write and I kept my comments about Bessent/Warsh...can you incorporate where Bessent/Warsh actually have historically applicable experience/tactical moves? I think the fact that you're playing that down is the wrong path..
I really enjoy using Claude for these types of cited, structurally framed discussions. Most of the politics board is tongue in cheek drivel but I think there is a middle ground that incorporates AI and still helps you develop extemporaneously.
YouBet said:Quote:
Nothing Fed or Treasury can do unless spending changes - long term is a political problem and not a monetary one.
Not sure how we can say this when debt interest is now our #2 expense. It's a money problem right now. It should also already be a political problem but it's not and won't be until it's too late. And I would say it's already too late.
I mean that as the spending is a problem that only politics can fix (ie choose a different path). Monetary policy, at this point, can only respond to keep the government funded and avoid a systemic default on our debt.
They COULD fix the spending problem but then everything crashes.
The only real fix is political.
Great use, and no harm meant. At least for now, LLM output has a pretty obvious style, and I find it interesting to see who can still tell the difference between human and AI writing.
AI or not I've enjoyed the conversation.
Rates continue to rise
Texaguser17 said:
Rates continue to rise
Japan says hold my beer
Japan’s yields going godzilla. pic.twitter.com/HY5Dl91Hc8
— Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) May 18, 2026
My mortgage rates look like ST. We were sliding down by the end of 25, barely below 6.0. But moving the right way. Then the War started. Now we up to 6.5 which kills the real estate markets. We need 5.5 not 6.5 to unlock a huge increase in buy/sell transactions.
Featured Stories
See All
24:12
10h ago
4.7k
10:06
8h ago
1.9k
12:26
5h ago
1.1k
Unbeaten Pérez led the Ags back to the national title
by Kay Naegeli
An improved Reed likely equates to an improved A&M
by Olin Buchanan
5 offseason storylines to follow for Aggie baseball
by Richard Zane
Aggie09Derek
Jaiden Bryant Flipped his Commitment from LSU to Miami
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
72