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Housing Market Outlook?

3,145 Views | 13 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by NoahAg
Conroe_Ag_8
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10:53a, 4/3/22
AG
Wife and I are looking at current home prices and considering selling (should be $150-200k profit). We would then move into a family-owned house and virtually pay nothing (no mortgage, utilities, etc.) while we were there.

Our idea would then be to pocket this profit and time-based savings and jump on something better for our family when the market corrects. Looking at 30-year mortgage interest rate trends, that seems like it may be sooner than later unless supply drops at the same time - which also seems likely.

Interested in hearing thoughts of those privy to RE market trends/outlook.

Are we crazy?
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CS78
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12:28p, 4/3/22
Unless you're in an area where the market has "corrected" in the past with large dips then don't plan on it happening. Most areas tend to just slow and sit flat. And predicting it will be luck. Maybe the market does drop 10% but what if it does it after gaining another 15% while you were sitting on the sidelines. You put in a lot of work to still lose money.

Your personal situation could make it work if you lived for free with family long enough to save a significant amount of money. But you should approach that as a separate subject.
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Martin Q. Blank
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3:07p, 4/3/22
Don't try to time the market.
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Red Pear Felipe
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4:36p, 4/3/22
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AG
Profiting 150-200k would be nice. You'd be exempt from a capital gains tax but I'd recommend you talk to your tax advisor to be sure. What market are you in? Here's an example of what's happening in Austin. Housing inventories went up a bit but not by much. For example, I could sell my house and make 300k in profit but then I'm stuck with a very low housing inventory which would take a bite out of my profits because I would be competing with other buyers.


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Polaris75
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5:40p, 4/3/22
Austin area is hot.
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Keeper of The Spirits
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In reply to Conroe_Ag_8 • 9:23p, 4/3/22
AG
Not crazy, but most likely wrong and that 150 will get eaten by inflation, rising mortgage rates, and continuing home price growth think 2-5% rather than 15-20 YOY and 150k only gets you to 20% down on homes up to about 800k which means you'd be at the top of the current conventional loan limits.

Not to mention if you and the old lady still get ,down living with the parents but a big dent in that action.
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Diggity
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7:44a, 4/4/22
AG
I had a similar idea about a year ago, but involved a "free" condo to wait out the market.

Needless to say, the market did not cool down during that time frame.
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bam02
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8:26a, 4/4/22
AG
What about moving into the family-owned home and renting your current place?
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evestor1
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10:22a, 4/4/22
Housing Market Outlook:
Noun / Adjective / Possible Verb
"hold on to your butts"
example sentence: " Marty should not have tried to time the market b/c the housing market outlook appeared top heavy compared to reality. He should have held on to his butts"
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Keeper of The Spirits
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In reply to bam02 • 5:48p, 4/4/22
AG
But also still consider the horizontal acrobats, trying to sneak a quickie in the half bath at your folks house is less fun as a 30 year old than a 20 year old. Now if you have kids, that's free babysitting
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itsyourboypookie
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3:45p, 4/5/22
Best time to buy real estate was 10 years ago.

Second best time to buy is today.
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12thAngryMan
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1:07p, 4/6/22
AG
Will you be a cash buyer when you re-enter the market? If not, you might find your purchasing power is just as eroded as the next guy. If home prices drop 10% but mortgage rates continue climb 2-3%, you could end up paying similar or even higher monthly costs.
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dc509
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5:27p, 4/6/22
AG
Don't count on a market correction bringing the Texas housing market back into the prices of the past. There are too many people coming here, and I think it's fair to say that we were under priced until recently. There might be a brief time in a recession where prices dip, but as someone said above what price level will that dip be from?

Do what you want, but I wouldn't count on an enormous price drop.
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NoahAg
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In reply to bam02 • 12:55p, 4/7/22
bam02 said:
What about moving into the family-owned home and renting your current place?
This idea I like.

OP, is the "free" house relatively close to your current home? It would cost you nothing to list your home for rent on Zillow for a month or so and see what kind of responses you get.

The cash flow could be worth it.
You can pocket what you would be paying for your mortgage.
You can always move back in a year.
Let's go, Brandon!
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