New house sells plummet

Jay@AgsReward.com

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2:56p, 5/24/22

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New construction home contracts WELL below expectations. Down 16.6% month to month and 29% year over year. These are of course national numbers. Some good perspective on the numbers.

https://housingbrief.com/article/628d19614b29897c86d9f2c2/5e6f887d13238419a4de4c03?sr=true

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one MEEN Ag

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In reply to Jay@AgsReward.com • 4:16p, 5/24/22

AG

Jay@AgsReward.com said:
New construction home contracts WELL below expectations. Down 16.6% month to month and 29% year over year. These are of course national numbers. Some good perspective on the numbers.

https://housingbrief.com/article/628d19614b29897c86d9f2c2/5e6f887d13238419a4de4c03?sr=true

Reflects the national sentiment on three fronts:
-Inflation is skyrocketing home prices
-Interest rates are crushing at these home values. Yeah everyone's parents laugh at how they had a 14% loan on their home but forgets to mention it was on a house that was worth 80k.
-Everyone's bracing for a recession, potential layoffs and other job uncertainty. Especially when most home buyers are dual income and can't support a big new home on one income if either of them lose their job.

-Also, people are trying to wait out and see whats going to happen with work from home. Is it here to stay? Are people going to take lower paying jobs if they get called back in the office? The companies that were most forward about work from home for non coding positions are now staring down large layoffs.

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CS78

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4:38p, 5/24/22

Jay, thanks for the article! Your last three graphs summed up my suspicions.

Is there a graph out there for combined new and existing home months of inventory?

Is there a place we can track these numbers going forward?

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Jay@AgsReward.com

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In reply to CS78 • 5:30p, 5/24/22

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To be clear, and looking at it now, it is confusing but I do not want to steal credit but I did not put together the commentary or graphs. Just info I thought the board might find interesting.

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Red Pear Luke

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In reply to one MEEN Ag • 10:33p, 5/24/22

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one MEEN Ag said:
Jay@AgsReward.com said:
New construction home contracts WELL below expectations. Down 16.6% month to month and 29% year over year. These are of course national numbers. Some good perspective on the numbers.

https://housingbrief.com/article/628d19614b29897c86d9f2c2/5e6f887d13238419a4de4c03?sr=true
Reflects the national sentiment on three fronts:
-Inflation is skyrocketing home prices
-Interest rates are crushing at these home values. Yeah everyone's parents laugh at how they had a 14% loan on their home but forgets to mention it was on a house that was worth 80k.
-Everyone's bracing for a recession, potential layoffs and other job uncertainty. Especially when most home buyers are dual income and can't support a big new home on one income if either of them lose their job.

-Also, people are trying to wait out and see whats going to happen with work from home. Is it here to stay? Are people going to take lower paying jobs if they get called back in the office? The companies that were most forward about work from home for non coding positions are now staring down large layoffs.

I think labor is still a problem with shortages of those with the specific qualified skill. I'm sure companies would be more willing to shed or downsize their real estate foot print first before going for lots of layoffs. Plus if gas prices keep going up - less people will go to the office unless forced.

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