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August Housing Data Across Texas

4,069 Views | 30 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Red Pear Medina
Red Pear Luke
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Starting off with Bryan & College Station!

Interesting Notes:
  • Home Prices are up 7.7% from August of last year
  • 70 Days on Market is the average (19% decrease from last year)


Troglodyte
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Surprised about that 19% decrease on Days on Market.
Red Pear Luke
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Troglodyte said:

Surprised about that 19% decrease on Days on Market.
Yeah... inventory levels have been rising on a national basis to closer to 10-11 months. Which is up about 80% from the 5.7 months at the beginning of this year.

Edit: here is the link to the St Louis FRED data. We will get an update on the August Numbers on the 21st.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR
CS78
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College Station has a long history of slow and steady wins the race. Crazy times aren't as crazy and the slow times aren't as slow.
Red Pear Realty
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HOUSTON

  • This market is crazy. Buyers think it's a buyers market, and sellers think its a sellers market, so everyone is having all kinds of fun.
  • Interest rates are way up compared to a few months ago, but smart buyers and sellers are figuring out ways around this in order to get deals done at good numbers.
  • Value appreciation is slowing down. This doesn't mean prices are falling just yet. But pricing growth is slowing.
  • Inventory has remained constant at 2.5 months from July to August, but it doesn't feel like that (seems like there is more inventory?). As a reminder, 6 months inventory is considered market equilibrium, so this is still considered a sellers market by the data (6/2.5 = 2.4 buyers out there for every home thats listed, including the duds, so there are really more)
  • In the last month, I've experienced some crazy deals:
  • Tenants bidding up rental pricing because some former house shoppers have moved on to rentals.
  • Buyer client offering full price, all cash on a home that was listed for 40+ days and not getting the house
  • Had another client offer full asking price two different times (excellent market terms) and not get their offers accepted.





Quote:

HOUSTON (September 14, 2022) The Houston housing market continued easing its way to pre-pandemic levels with an August that marked the fifth consecutive month of declining sales and rising inventory. However, a surge in single-family leases demonstrates that consumers didn't just suspend purchases due to rising prices and interest rates, but they pivoted to the rental market. These factors have enabled housing inventory to grow to its highest level in two years.

"We are easing our way back to the housing market that existed prior to the pandemic," said HAR Chair Jennifer Wauhob with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene. "For the past two years, Houston housing has been like a runaway train, and what we've been seeing most recently is an engineer, finally at the throttle, applying the brakes so the train can pull safely into the next station. It's important to note that transactions are still happening, just not at a whirlwind pace or record pricing levels, and that is perfectly healthy."


https://www.har.com/content/department/newsroom
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Martin Q. Blank
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Red Pear BCS Luke said:

Troglodyte said:

Surprised about that 19% decrease on Days on Market.
Yeah... inventory levels have been rising on a national basis to closer to 10-11 months. Which is up about 80% from the 5.7 months at the beginning of this year.

Edit: here is the link to the St Louis FRED data. We will get an update on the August Numbers on the 21st.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR
So why are BCS Days on Market down?
Red Pear Realty
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CPI - 8.3% YOY and 0.1% MOM (meaning inflation is still increasing despite FED efforts of raising rates)

PPI - TBD

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm



Fed Funds target rate = 2.25% to 2.50%

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr



The market is predicting a 75-100 bps increase in the target rate at the next Fed meeting on 9/21/22:

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
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Medaggie
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Give it another 6 months and YOY home prices will be down 10-20% IMO with inflation, fed rate, then interest rates all rising.

It will be a buyers market soon, just not yet.
txaggie_08
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Medaggie said:

Give it another 6 months and YOY home prices will be down 10-20% IMO with inflation, fed rate, then interest rates all rising.

It will be a buyers market soon, just not yet.
With rising interest rates, homes are going to have to decline quite a bit to make up the difference. Buyers doing the best will be those with the cash to get a deal done, otherwise those requiring financing still won't have the purchasing power necessary without a steep decline in home prices.

Edit: For myself: my wife and I have been wanting to purchase some land, but current, and future, interest rates are most likely going to keep us out of the game unless there is a significant drop in prices. I don't foresee a significant drop unless this recession drags out for quite a while (which it might). Otherwise sellers are going to be reluctant to lower prices and will instead opt to wait for the bounce back.
Troglodyte
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Medaggie said:

Give it another 6 months and YOY home prices will be down 10-20% IMO with inflation, fed rate, then interest rates all rising.

It will be a buyers market soon, just not yet.
If we are talking Texas, I'll take that bet.
Red Pear Felipe
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Quote:

Active listings in the five-county area skyrocketed 170.2%, causing housing inventory to reach 2.9 months the highest inventory level since September 2018. Additionally, year-over-year home price growth was less than 6% for the first time since June 2020. The median home price increased by 5.5% annually to $496,039, setting a price record for the month of August while also indicating a normalization of home price appreciation that economists say is consistent with historical norms.
"I want to be very clearmarket shift does not mean that we are in a downturn, and it doesn't mean that Central Texas home values have been overvalued," Cord Shiflet, 2022 ABoR president, said. "Home prices are still appreciating, just at a more reasonable rate, that's more in-line with what we have seen historically. Homes are still selling close to list price, which is great news for buyers and healthy for our housing market. If you've been thinking about selling your home, it's important to work with a REALTOR and make sure you're pricing your property correctly in the middle of this changing market."
In August, residential home sales declined 23% year over year to 2,924 closed sales. Sales dollar volume declined 14.7.% to $1,844,350,661, while new listings dipped slightly at 6.2% to 4,121 listings. Homes spent an average of 31 days on the market, the first time average days on market has topped one month since February 2018.


https://www.abor.com/august-2022-central-texas-housing-market-report

My last clients were able to negotiate $19K off the list price for a house located in South Austin off MoPac. The listing agent had originally listed for $549K and then reduced it to $539K after 4 days. I know that my clients would've paid more had they purchased it 3 months ago. There's definitely been a shift in the Austin area. There's a house down the street from my house that's been on the market for nearly three months. It's original listing price was $899K and they just recently dropped it to $799K and they still haven't been able to sell.


Austin-Round Rock


Bastrop County


Caldwell County


City of Austin


Hays County


Travis County


Williamson County
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Medaggie
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Troglodyte said:

Medaggie said:

Give it another 6 months and YOY home prices will be down 10-20% IMO with inflation, fed rate, then interest rates all rising.

It will be a buyers market soon, just not yet.
If we are talking Texas, I'll take that bet.
Austin area home prices already down. Compare July to August.

July COA 633K median, Travis county 610 median

The house Felipe mentioned would have gone for over 1M a year ago.
Red Pear Realty
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Rental Market

This data is from Houston but directionally, I would consider it to be accurate for Texas as well. Buyers frustrated by interest rates and lack of inventory are now turning to renting. And sellers that aren't satisfied with not hitting the numbers that we saw 6-24 months ago are turning to renting instead of not selling at top dollar.





Quote:

HOUSTON (September 21, 2022) The leased home market continues to draw strong interest among consumers who may have had to put their homebuying plans on hold with interest rates and pricing up and inventory slowly growing back. According to the Houston Association of Realtors' August 2022 Rental Market Update, single-family home rentals jumped 19.2 percent year-over-year, with the average rent up 7.3 percent to an all-time high of $2,313. A total of 3,639 leases were signed compared to 3,052 in August 2021.

New listings of single-family rentals rocketed 44.2 percent, creating a broad selection of housing for consumers. Days on Market, or the actual number of days it took to lease a home, rose from 17 days to 22.

"Houston's rental market remains strong with a healthy dose of new listings that hit in August, and that means those who have had to postpone the homebuying process have plenty of housing options available," said HAR Chair Jennifer Wauhob with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene. "We are seeing more activity among single-family leases versus townhomes and condominiums, but rents are up among both segments."

https://www.har.com/content/department/newsroom?pid=1878
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K_P
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Red Pear Realty said:

HOUSTON
  • Interest rates are way up compared to a few months ago, but smart buyers and sellers are figuring out ways around this in order to get deals done at good numbers.


  • What do you mean by this bullet?
    Red Pear Realty
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    K_P said:

    Red Pear Realty said:

    HOUSTON
  • Interest rates are way up compared to a few months ago, but smart buyers and sellers are figuring out ways around this in order to get deals done at good numbers.


  • What do you mean by this bullet?

    One of the best pieces of advice that I was ever given to me was from my mentor, a first generation American with incredible work ethic who has probably accomplished more in his 30's than I'll ever accomplish. Anyway, he told me, "The money is the easy part. Finding a good deal is the difficult part." With that said, there are a lot more ways than this, but here are some ways that smart buyers and sellers are staying on top of their game right now:

    • If it is a long term hold, use your Red Pear Realty buyer rebate or reduced seller commission to buy down the buyer's rate on their loan. This is my favorite way to help my clients win.
    • VA and FHA loans (the same products that were four letter words in most folk's minds for the last 3 years) are assumable. So I just closed a deal in Belton last week where the buyer assumed the seller's VA loan with a sub-3% interest rate, all while everyone else was fighting 5/6/7's.
    • Lots of different loan products out there right now designed to help buyers mitigate rising interest rates. Several good Aggie lenders on this board can talk to you about their options. And I'm not just talking about ARM's. There's starting to be some cool stuff out there.
    • Find a seller willing to do owner financing. I closed one of these loans in the last month also. The sellers did 0% interest rate for the buyer on this property and all parties were incredibly happy on closing day.
    • If you are a seller, maybe don't sell. Rental rates might surprise you. I'm seeing about +10% in rental rates since May.
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    Red Pear Jack
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    A little late to the party but below is the update for North Texas:

    • Although the charts below reflect increases in value you are starting to see price reductions and inventory sitting longer when priced at top of the market. However, I have seen a few examples were the house will still sell at pre rate increase prices. At the end of the day all it takes is one buyer to step up. It's almost as if the two forces are duking out to see which one will win.
    • Active listings are skyrocketing and this should continue to increase inventory going forward.
    • Similar to prior month inventory and active listings in the suburban counties are growing much more quickly than in Dallas/Tarrant Counties.

    Things are about to get interesting as a result of the Fed declaring war on the housing market. This Bloomberg article details it perfectly.

    • Housing Paralysis Engulfs US Buyers With Prices Starting to Fall
    • "The Fed is signaling more rate hikes ahead after its third straight 75-basis-point increase Wednesday, and Chair Jerome Powell warned of a housing correction. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects home prices to flatten next year. Zandi is more bearish: He predicts prices nationally will fall 5% to 10% from peak levels without a recession and as much as 15% in a mild recession. Values could crash by 25% in some of the most overheated areas, he said."
    • "Both buyers and sellers are trapped in place. Listings are lingering longer because demand has collapsed. But less supply is coming into the market, with a report this week from Zillow Group Inc. showing that new listings slid almost 23% in August from a year earlier. That's because homeowners who don't have to move don't want to trade cheap rates for higher ones,"

    "Marry the house,"Date the rate."











    leighann
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    AG
    When housing prices fall, do rental rates typically follow?
    Red Pear Realty
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    leighann said:

    When housing prices fall, do rental rates typically follow?


    I expect the poor and middle class to bear the brunt of this inflationary recession that we are in for the next few years. I don't expect rents to fall (they are up around 10% since the Spring in Houston). Yes, there will definitely be some consolidation of tenants from class A to B and B to C and C to family, but I don't expect a wholesale drop in rents, which is probably the worst outcome for the majority. Basically, the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer.
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    leighann
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    Thanks for the explanation. We would eventually like to move up in house, but are going to save as much cash as we can, and see how things shake out over the next couple of years.
    Always great to hear your analysis!
    YouBet
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    Can confirm North Texas market.Most everyone around us is cutting their prices at this point even just a week after listing.
    Robert C. Christian
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    Looking at that data, I am so thankful we were able to sell in June and get just below asking.

    Meanwhile this house just down the street which listed way too high about the same time continues to drop prices like a rock: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/454-Geary-Dr-Rockwall-TX-75087/80258900_zpid/
    Red Pear Luke
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    Robert C. Christian said:

    Looking at that data, I am so thankful we were able to sell in June and get just below asking.

    Meanwhile this house just down the street which listed way too high about the same time continues to drop prices like a rock: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/454-Geary-Dr-Rockwall-TX-75087/80258900_zpid/


    Whew Doggie - almost at $100K chopped off the valuation.
    Diggity
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    Robert C. Christian said:

    Looking at that data, I am so thankful we were able to sell in June and get just below asking.

    Meanwhile this house just down the street which listed way too high about the same time continues to drop prices like a rock: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/454-Geary-Dr-Rockwall-TX-75087/80258900_zpid/
    that's one ugly house
    Robert C. Christian
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    Diggity said:

    Robert C. Christian said:

    Looking at that data, I am so thankful we were able to sell in June and get just below asking.

    Meanwhile this house just down the street which listed way too high about the same time continues to drop prices like a rock: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/454-Geary-Dr-Rockwall-TX-75087/80258900_zpid/
    that's one ugly house
    I know and, looking back on it now, I am glad they listed about the same time as ours. Really helped us stand out as a much nicer house.
    agcrock2005
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    Robert C. Christian said:

    Looking at that data, I am so thankful we were able to sell in June and get just below asking.

    Meanwhile this house just down the street which listed way too high about the same time continues to drop prices like a rock: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/454-Geary-Dr-Rockwall-TX-75087/80258900_zpid/
    Either really ****ty seller, or really ****ty realtor.
    Diggity
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    the pictures are all jacked up too. Not surprised to see it's an Opendoor listing.
    Red Pear Realty
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    Thank you! I'd love to help y'all whenever you are ready.
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    K_P
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    Diggity said:

    Robert C. Christian said:

    Looking at that data, I am so thankful we were able to sell in June and get just below asking.

    Meanwhile this house just down the street which listed way too high about the same time continues to drop prices like a rock: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/454-Geary-Dr-Rockwall-TX-75087/80258900_zpid/
    that's one ugly house


    Does that house have a kitchen?
    Red Pear Medina
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    Delete / Picture Error
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    Red Pear Medina
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    San Antonio Area August Rental Stats:




    These numbers are pretty consistent with the previous months stats. The rental market in SA is active, and is not seeing a large difference in price or availability. Rentals are sitting on the market slightly longer, but is pretty consistent with Sales DOM stats.

    https://sabor.com/Market-Research-and-Statistics/Market-Statistics/San-Antonio-Area-Market-Report
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    Red Pear Medina
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    San Antonio Area August Stats:

    SA area continues to see an increase in median and average home prices (about 13%). While sales are declining for the fifth month in a row, the market is seeing a slight increase in inventory.

    Quote:

    Other major counties in the state also saw increases in average and median prices, however, Bexar County remains the lowest when compared. Travis County reported a median price of $600,000, Harris Co. $327,000 and Dallas Co. at $365,000.
    https://sabor.com/Market-Research-and-Statistics/Market-Statistics/San-Antonio-Area-Market-Report

    San Antonio Area:



    New Braunfels:



    Spring Branch / Hill Country:



    Gonzales County:



    https://fourriversrealtors.com/top-members-resources/market-viewer-infographics?limit=20&limitstart=0
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