Austin-Round Rock


ABOR Housing Data

Quote:

---

"For the second year in a row, ABoR is hosting a summit focused on the state of the region's housing market, the need to prioritize housing and how to enact change for the future," Ashley Jackson, 2023 ABoR president, said. "Yes, inventory is increasing and median prices have declined, but this does not mean no action is required to address the region's housing affordability issues. We are seeing the market normalize after years of record-setting pace, but it is our job to help the region's housing market fundamentally improve so that anyone that wants to buy a home here can find one within their budget."

---

• I was listening to The Ramsey Show recently and a caller asked when the best time to buy a house was with these high interest rates. Dave's answer was NOW! Assuming you're in the right position to buy, you can always refinance when the time comes to do so.
• Big news is pending sales in the area were up 19% YOY. That can't be?! I thought people were going to stop buying due to the higher interest rates.
• New listings are down 23% and active listings are up 38%. I think interested sellers who were thinking about upgrading just to do it when interest rates were low are now holding.
• Much less investor action, and we are seeing more of those buying or selling because they really need to.

Recent Transactions

• I just closed on a deal recently where my client got the house for $23K under asking plus $5000 in seller's concessions.
• I also have another house closing at the end of the month. This was a Zillow lead and my client decided to go with a new build. He'll still be able to earn a $5000 buyer's rebate in addition to the builder's incentives. I believe he qualified for a 4.75% interest rate for 30 years.
• Another house in in escrow won't close until August so I'll talk about that one next month!

Austin-Round Rock


Bastrop County


Caldwell County


City of Austin


Hays County


Travis County


Williamson County

Bryan / College Station Area Statistics:

• 24% decrease in units sold compared to June 2022. This is due to "Golden Handcuffs" in the form of potential sellers refusing to give up their low 2.5% interest rates. I expect this trend to continue.
• Starting to see homes sit on the market longer as pools of applicable buyers decrease. The reason? You are looking at a 7-7.15% interest rate today assuming you have great credit. Otherwise expect higher interest rates. A $400K mortgage today, assuming 30 years at 7.15% interest = a monthly payment of $2,700 BEFORE Taxes and Insurance.
• Inventory is up to ~2.8 months vs 2.0 months in May of 2022. Reminder that historically, balanced markets have 6 months of inventory. Further proof that interest rates are taking a bite out of market momentum.

My Take and Transactions:

• Deals are still to be had! One of the buyer we represented was looking for their first home purchase. We set our eyes on a house that was on the market for 55 days before we made an offer. After a few rounds of negotiating, my clients were able to get the house under contract almost 6% below the asking. The biggest thing that helped us secure this "win"? Assured certainty that we would be there at signing day regardless of what happened.
• Seller's are starting to understand that prices are softening and a realignment of pricing expectations are needed. Houses is the higher price ranges are seeing pricing reduction after sitting for 4 months with no traction.
• Interest Rates are taking no mercy on anyone. I can't stress enough how important it is to choose the right lender and get pre-qualified before making offers!

Bryan/College Station:



Bryan:



College Station:



Brazos County:



If anyone has any other requests for surrounding counties - let me know and happy to help!

North Texas

• Rockwall still hanging on to price increases, otherwise prices have decreased throughout the metroplex 3.8% Year-over-Year.
• Days on Market is climbing and active listings increasing at a good clip which is driving up the average months of inventory, however, still relatively low.
• Sellers - Expect homes to sit and not sell in the first weekend with multiple offers, it still happens but it is becoming the exception not the norm.
• It is extremely important to price it right and have conviction on your sales price.

Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

---

• 24% decrease in units sold compared to June 2022. This is due to "Golden Handcuffs" in the form of potential sellers refusing to give up their low 2.5% interest rates. I expect this trend to continue.

---

This is me. We would love to upgrade, but I just can't justify it when I've got 2.75% on my current house

ElephantRider said:

---

Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

---

• 24% decrease in units sold compared to June 2022. This is due to "Golden Handcuffs" in the form of potential sellers refusing to give up their low 2.5% interest rates. I expect this trend to continue.

---

This is me. We would love to upgrade, but I just can't justify it when I've got 2.75% on my current house

---

This and the other thread have me thinking, what's the true equilibrium state, though? Obviously, right now isn't it. But I'd argue the last 10 years sure weren't either. Upgrading to a new house every 2-4 years because you have equity and money is cheap isn't the norm.....

I've been in my house for 11+ years. I'm the extreme outlier compared to my family and friends. Most have been in 3 houses in that time. My sister has been in 4. She's moved and been in more houses than my parents....

I remain concerned about the market. Rental rates vs purchase price has never been more out of balance. Yes, maybe you can find a deal…but if you are looking in the mls for properties for sale that are clearly rentals…the average is probably in the .65-.7 rate for rent vs sales price. Which is insane in this interest rate market. What are you going to do. Drop 100k for the honor of loosing $400/month in cash flow. For the hope of inflating home values in future?
Homes bought for investment are such a large percentage of sf market….the disconnect is really blowing my mind. And many other National builders I talk with. Home builders are at a slight advantage because they had such large margarine that can be reduced and they have to move product…they don't have the anchor of rapid delta in interest rates preventing them from putting homes on the market.
But land prices and regulatory environment is tougher every day. Even with the optimism of a majority of my clients, I think it is too early to say that we are on a clear upswing and not on a pause before more price calapse.