This is purely to satisfy my own curiosity, but are there any public sources of mortgage payment amounts over time?

I've seen the Redfin publications regarding median mortgage amounts (eg https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-monthly-mortgage-payments-near-record-high/) over time, but I think that is just a calc of the median home price at the typical rate for that date. I looked into their sources and that was all I could find.

What I'm really looking for is what % of mortgages have a payment over a certain amount and how that has changed over time. For example, how many people have monthly payments over 3k, 5k, 7k, etc. This article was what sparked my curiosity, talking about how many people are taking out mortgages with payments over 7k/mo: https://fortune.com/2023/07/19/mortgage-rates-housing-market-affordability-borrower-refinance-speculation/


Anecdotes from LOs are welcome too. Are there a significant number of people buying homes with mortgage payments that large, or are all these homes selling to relocating cash buyers? I know this is skewed a bit in Texas because of our higher property taxes relative to some other states too.

Oh absolutely. I was just curious how much more prevalent those large mortgage payments are now compared to a few years ago

Diggity said:

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That article was click bait.

If you can afford a $7K mortgage payment, you ain't middle class.

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2400 sqft $1.2M SHF (in CA), with a 6% IR, 30yr fixed = $7200 PI/month

Been curious about this as well. Seems like most homes in the market with current interest rates are all Starting in the 3K a month range.

Diggity said:

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So we agree. Middle class folks aren't affording those houses.

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I'm saying you are basing your definition of "middle class" off of your regions median.

High-Middle-class in Podunk, Mississippi is lower-middle-class in Houston, TX. That MS guy is a bank-manager pulling in $55k/yr. $55k/yr is struggling in Houston. $55k/yr is functionally homeless in NYC. (You might find 70sqft hole to sleep in, but I wouldn't hold my breath.)

So back to the $7k/m mortgage. Going by the 1/3rd rule. That person needs to make $21k/m or $252k/yr. A Podunk, MS mentality is "$252k/yr isn't middle class, thats millionaire money" but you might be a struggling programmer in silicon Valley making that salary. Middle-class, but skilled.

Cost of living in certain areas wipe out so much of that "high pay." It's really fascinating to see $100k earner in Jarrell, TX save up $20k/yr, when a $200k earner in NYC struggle to break-even and may even go into debt. At the end of the year, the guy in Jarrell is more wealthy than the guy who earns twice as much.

The question becomes do you want to live in an area with higher-earnings and high SOL, or lower-earnings and low SOL?

I understand cost of living and there's always extreme outliers.

We can agree to disagree on whether a guy clearing $300K (don't forget taxes and insurance) is middle class.

Diggity said:

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I understand cost of living and there's always extreme outliers.

We can agree to disagree on whether a guy clearing $300K (don't forget taxes and insurance) is middle class.

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That would definitely put them in the top 10% of income earners in this country. Probably close to top 5%. I think you're right here.

p_bubel said:

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Diggity said:

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I understand cost of living and there's always extreme outliers.

We can agree to disagree on whether a guy clearing $300K (don't forget taxes and insurance) is middle class.

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That would definitely put them in the top 10% of income earners in this country. Probably close to top 5%. I think you're right here.

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That would still only put him within like 1.85 standard deviations from the mean.

I'm going to go ahead and say it: if you are salaried and using that income to pay your mortgage, you are middle class.

If you've gotten to point where your investments can pay your mortgage, you are upper-class.

TheBonifaceOption said:

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Diggity said:

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So we agree. Middle class folks aren't affording those houses.

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I'm saying you are basing your definition of "middle class" off of your regions median.

High-Middle-class in Podunk, Mississippi is lower-middle-class in Houston, TX. That MS guy is a bank-manager pulling in $55k/yr. $55k/yr is struggling in Houston. $55k/yr is functionally homeless in NYC. (You might find 70sqft hole to sleep in, but I wouldn't hold my breath.)

So back to the $7k/m mortgage. Going by the 1/3rd rule. That person needs to make $21k/m or $252k/yr. A Podunk, MS mentality is "$252k/yr isn't middle class, thats millionaire money" but you might be a struggling programmer in silicon Valley making that salary. Middle-class, but skilled.

Cost of living in certain areas wipe out so much of that "high pay." It's really fascinating to see $100k earner in Jarrell, TX save up $20k/yr, when a $200k earner in NYC struggle to break-even and may even go into debt. At the end of the year, the guy in Jarrell is more wealthy than the guy who earns twice as much.

The question becomes do you want to live in an area with higher-earnings and high SOL, or lower-earnings and low SOL?

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an area that has a higher SOL is higher for a reason; it's more desirable to live there (for most)

Some people don't care, that's why people live in small towns in KS or wherever else.

I'm not that kind of person. I could easily move back to houston, buy a nice house cash, and likely make a tick higher in salary, along with wife, but we don't want to. We like Colorado.