HOUSTON

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Despite economic uncertainty, the Greater Houston housing market blossomed in March as sales rebounded amid a budding supply of homes. Easing interest rates [Jamie's note--this is already outdated] and moderating home prices attracted more prospective buyers as there continues to be a shift toward a buyer's market.

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The Facts

• Single-family home sales increased 2.6 percent year-over-year;
• Days on Market (DOM) for single-family homes went from 55 to 62 days;
• Total property sales were statistically flat with 8,753 units sold;
• Total dollar volume increased 5.1% to $3.6 billion;
• The single-family median price increased 1.5 percent to $335,000;
• The single-family average price rose 3.7 percent to $427,221;
• Single-family home months of inventory registered a 4.6-months supply, up from 3.4 months last March and from 4.4 months in February.
• The 10 year Treasury has seen WILD swings over the last few weeks. In fact, I believe the ~60 bps swing from ~3.9% to ~4.5% in a week or so was one of the largest swings in that amount of time, ever.
• CPI was NEGATIVE on a MTM basis for the first time in many moons. But the CME group shows that the market is predicting that the Fed will hold its target rate steady at its meeting on May 7, with a 25 bps cut not expected until the following meeting in mid June.

My Take

• I just lost a deal in where my buyer client offered $10,000 over asking price and for the seller to set the closing date whenever they'd prefer. Here we go?
• I have a few more buyer clients who would love to make offers, but the inventory just isn't there for them. And I don't think that they are being unreasonable with their searches. It's tough out there for buyers! Hopefully some inventory will shake loose soon.
• Check out how the number of sales in Houston has steadily declined the last few years in the image below from HAR.
• This last week was a busy one for me. We listed homes for sale in:
• Rice Military - 4/3.5 - 3,185 SF
• West Houston - 4/3.5 - 2,753 SF
• Cypress - 4/4.5 - 3,772 SF
• The Heights - 3/2/2 - 1,818 SF
• Champions - 4/2.5 - 2,658 SF - Check out those clocks!!!
• For Rent - The Heights - 3/3.5 - 1,972 SF

https://www.har.com/content/department/mls
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Bryan / College Station Area Statistics:

Listings up & sales up:

• March saw 362 homes sold across the BCS area, up 10% from last March, above the trend average of 348 for March and a large leap up from February's 231 homes sold. The total sales volume was $149M, or 2% higher compared to March 2024 with homes in the $300K to $350K range leading the charge at 65 deals.
• Sellers have brought 620 new listings to the table in March 2025, which is up 9% from last year and higher then the 538 homes in February. The total number of active listings is 1,529 with 973 of them located in Brazos County alone.
• Average Days on Market stretched to 123 days in March, which is 4 days higher than last year and up from the 112 days in February (118 days in Brazos County alone). Given the total number of listings, 180 active listings in the $300K - $350K range for example, buyers are increasingly having their pick of the litter. Remember, a balanced real estate market is 6 months or 180 days worth of supply.

Stories from around the Brazos:

• BCS Realtor's Association sent a letter to the City of College Station regarding the "No More than 4" occupancy rules.
• First Time Home buyers down 30% in Bryan/College Station - challenged by price tags and interest rates.

Bryan/College Station MSA:



Brazos County:



Bryan:



College Station:

NORTH TEXAS

• Median Price was essentially flat in March for the metroplex. Meaningful decreases in the suburban counties.
• Closed sales are up slightly but aided by the meaningful increase in Active Listings (36.1%). This shows that things have likely flipped to the buyer's side.
• Months of Inventory is now just shy of 4 months, the highest it's been in a while, and driving Days On Market to 96 (increase of 12 days YoY).
• Rates seemed to be trending the right way until flipping overnight due to the run up in treasuries as Jamie described above.
• It really seemed like we were gearing up for an exciting spring season, however, folks are now being more cautious. It seems like my clients are waiting things out and not feeling like they are up against the clock.
• CAD values are starting to come out, reach out if you think your value seems high. Maybe an opportunity to bring taxes down giving some recent trades.

I forgot to mention that in the last month, I closed two deals for sellers in Galveston and one deal for a buyer in Timbergrove.

The Galveston deals were wild because of some social media posts that were made in the last few weeks that were widely seen and highly derogatory toward the market. True or just hype, they definitely made an impact. Both buyers started making demands the week of closing that we felt like were not typical. Kind of crazy. I believe one agent said something like "if you don't like it, you can go sell to someone else for less". Before going under contract, we had lots of what I would call "lowball" offers by buyers hoping to just see if we would take something crazy (well below what could be considered market). I also think I set a new record for the comp set on one home.

The Timbergrove deal that I did had some extended inspections due to some situations at the home, but the seller and seller's agent could not have been better throughout the situation. They handled the whole thing very professionally and that is not the norm in lots of situations. The seller's agent definitely gave me some great advice as an agent and some hope for the profession, which at times can make you feel like there is not a lot of professionalism out there.

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos

March 2025 Central Texas Housing Market

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Clare Knapp, Ph.D., housing economist for Unlock MLS and the Austin Board of REALTORS, pointed to affordability constraints as well as growing economic headwinds as key factors shaping early-year market activity.


"We started the year with a continuation of similar trends that shaped the market in 2024. However, stubbornly high mortgage rates and a weaker local labor market weighed on buyer confidence, while many sellers remained reluctant to adjust pricing expectations. That squeeze on buyer power shaped much of the activity we saw in the first quarter, reinforcing the need for greater flexibility and balance on both sides of the transaction."

For the first quarter of 2025, the number of active listings on the market saw an 18.9% increase from 2024-Q1, allowing buyers to benefit from greater choice and negotiating power, leading to longer decision timelines and more strategic purchases. These continued shifts point to a market that is evolvingoffering a more thoughtful pace for both buyers and sellers.

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My clients will be closing on their new home in Blanco, TX at the end of the month and they're walking away with nearly $8,000 back in a buyer's rebate! But that's not all I also helped them save around $4,200 on the sale of their home in Spring Branch, TX, thanks to our 1.5% listing fee. That's a total of over $12,200 in savings just for being Red Pear Realty clients. Some agents hand out Stanley cups or cakes at closing...
At Red Pear Realty, we hand out real savings.


Here's a quick look at the latest trends in the Austin area:

• Median Sales Price: Prices are down less than a 1% year-over-year (YOY) to $446,000. This doesn't paint the whole picture though as prices went up in the city of Austin and Travis County YOY.
• Closed Sales: Down 9.3% YOY to 2,461. The early Spring is a slower season, so it'll be interesting to see where this number stands for April's numbers.
• Active Listings: Increased 18.8% YOY to 11,659, meaning more inventory and a slight shift toward a neutral market.
• Pending Sales: Increased a bit to 3.1% YOY to 3,064. This increase is perhaps to some buyers taking advantage of lower interest rates earlier this year.
• Months of Inventory: Currently at 4.8 months, down almost a whole month MOM (0.9 months) and 0.7 months higher YOY, signaling a more balanced market.
• Average Close to List Price: Buyers are getting deals in this neutral market as sellers have been accepting 94.4% of their list price.

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos


Bastrop County


Caldwell County


City of Austin


Hays County


Travis County


Williamson County


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