I'm curious if anyone on here has a good handle on what the downsizing effects of the new federal budget will be. I am particularly looking at the effect on the Air Force and what will trickle down to officer accessions.

Right now, all of the OTS boards have been indefinitely suspended and we are still waiting on guidance as to whether or not they will resume any time in the near future. With OTS basically constituting "third string" selections for filling officer billets, I expect OTS could get hit pretty hard. I would hate to see my selection chances get scrapped because of the budget. FY15 is my one and only chance.

I am not in the Air Force but I have a friend who is an Air Force budget analyst and his assessment is that it's going to be a pretty severe hit. The Air Force' investment dilemma is that if they cut R&D and acquisition programs to protect personnel strength and structure that have a force that in a decade will be manning outdated systems with no forthcoming replacement. Consequently, their gambit is to take deep cuts in personnel over the coming years so that when budgets and manpower return to an upswing the programs will be on track and fielded to the force that is ramping up. That's a stratospheric perspective that does not really tell you about how OTS quotas will be impacted but that's all I have in terms of hearsay.

Blue Star for Ulysses. I'm retired AF (1991) and worked in R&D/Acquisition for the last 7 years of my career. I completely agree with his assessment.

Think of R&D/Acquisitions as a water spigot and manpower levels as another spigot.

If you turn down the R&D spigot in a significant way, it takes a long time to get the pressure back up after you turn it up again.

If you turn down the manpower spigot in a significant way, getting the pressure back up after you turn it up again takes a WHOLE lot less time.

IMO, Ryan is justified in his concerns about OTS quotas. But I also think that his former enlisted service will make him more competitive. JMO - I am only speculating.

Edit: Just anecdotal, but I have seen recent mention of several R&D projects that I was involved in or had knowledge of finally coming to fruition almost 25 years after I retired.

I saw a Yahoo article just yesterday about a DARPA project for cheap/fast access to low orbits. That "concept" has been around for 30 years.

In the same article there was also mention of programs for small, cheap, lightweight satellites. Another "concept" that is 30 years old.



[This message has been edited by NormanAg (edited 3/27/2014 7:09p).]

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I saw a Yahoo article just yesterday about a DARPA project for cheap/fast access to low orbits. That "concept" has been around for 30 years.

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Come on, SpaceX has been around less than a decade.

<threadjack>
In all seriousness, SpaceX is a friggin AMAZING company. I toured their facility in Hawthorne with my counterpart who is a Fellow there. They are the most vertically integrated aerospace company since the Wright Brothers i.e. they design everything from wiring to the rocket motors. Then they take in raw materials in one end of the factory and rockets and space capsules come out the other end of the factory. Their vision is to reuse everything which is why they use liquid fuel and actually test fire every rocket motor at McGregor TX before cleaning off the scorch marks an installing it into the launch vehicle back in California. The plan is that the land the booster stage right back on the pad from which it launched. Exactly the way Robert Heinlein intended it to be.

http://www.space.com/22379-spacex-grasshopper-rocket-sideways-flight-video.html

A Google search for Project Forecast II has an entry for an AF Magazine article from 1986. I worked on Project Forecast II while assigned to the Air Force Systems Command Headquarters from 1984 - 1988.

http://www.airforcemag.com/MagazineArchive/Pages/1986/August%201986/0886forecast.aspx

If you scroll ALL THE WAY DOWN to the end of the link, you will find a table labeled "Forecast II At A Glance - The Technologies". The following entry is listed in the table:

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Reusable orbit transfer vehicle.

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[This message has been edited by NormanAg (edited 3/27/2014 7:33p).]

I'll be out by the end of the year. WOOHOO!

Before the boards were suspended, active duty selection rates were about 85%. Civilian selection rates were down around 15%. My hybrid status potentially puts me somewhere around a 50-55% shot of getting selected with those stats. The problem is that applications are now stacking up so we will see more apps for fewer slots. That means my chances begin to decline rapidly, especially considering I don't have a STEM degree. Last year the second of two boards was STEM only.

I suppose this is all just me getting freaked out by not knowing, but if I don't commission by September 2015, it's all over forever. I don't want to face that happening.