For the most part I agree with your easiest to hardest list above the line. Might switch Mizzou away as being easier than SC at home but that's minutiae. Also agree that 11 conference wins pretty much would lock us into the Dance.

If your intent was for the below the line list to be from easiest to hardest then I can't go with Bama away being the hardest. Maybe 3 rd or 4th hardest.

"stealing " a home win vs UK or LSU would be huge

Agree with your list.

I think our most realistic chances for wins in your "difficult" section are @Arkansas and @Tennessee. We're historically snake bit at Bud Walton, but I think Buzz can turn the tide on that. Out of all the top tier SEC teams Tennessee has looked the least impressive from what I've seen. LSU has looked scary good granted I have only seen them play home games.

From the "easy" section I wouldn't be surprised if we lost one or two of the road games on there. Although maybe our close call against Georgia will end up being beneficial from an experience standpoint.

Also I'm not totally convinced we make the tournament with 11 wins assuming we win NONE of the games in your "difficult" section. I think at that point we'd need to win a tournament game or two against the big boys to really secure things.

Prime Brittany at it's greatest

Wonder why Kenpom would have Bama roadie as lower % than Aub or LSU roadie?

DeCourcy has us as an 11 seed:

PWestAg18 said:

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Also I'm not totally convinced we make the tournament with 11 wins assuming we win NONE of the games in your "difficult" section. I think at that point we'd need to win a tournament game or two against the big boys to really secure things.

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If we go 11-7 in conference, I'd be very surprised if we did not get in. As you said, we definitely wouldn't have quality wins, but I think a lot of the conference would have to completely implode to the point the league is only getting four or five teams in for us to not get in. I think at 10 wins we're definitely in bubble territory, potentially playing in Dayton as a last four in, but I think at 11 we'd be pretty safely in unless the bubble gets extremely small due to bid stealing.

We're in at 11-7. I'm starting to come around that 10-8 isn't a sure thing, but I think for it not to be we'd have to get blasted by all the good teams.

At 10-8 there is a very real chance we would have 0 quad 1 wins, which I would not feel great about.

But depending on what TCU does we might be undefeated in all other games. I thought our numbers would be good enough that we'd probably be in.

Unless we get massacred in those games.

But I think this is unlikely, we're gonna beat one of them.

I think 11 conference wins and wer'e in. 10 and it's going to be up to a committee and our track record with committees ain't great . Would depend on who we beat.

Had we beaten TCU ten conference wins would have looked a lot better imo.

halfastros81 said:

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Wonder why Kenpom would have Bama roadie as lower % than Aub or LSU roadie?

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Updated, put the % that KenPom has listed and moved them around. My original Alabama # was BEFORE the Mizzo & Auburn loss.....it moved it pretty dramatically

Our current projected conf # is 10-8 to Kenpom


BTHO Mizzo

Ugly dance win vs Mizzo

UK loss
1-22

Arkansas loss

LSU loss

USCe LOSS



There likely went our one shining moment

Dancing all the way to the CBI baby