What a few weeks. Within the last five games have been our best (Auburn, obviously) and worst (Mississippi State) games of the season by Torvik's game score. Gotta love college basketball.

Now a little over a week away from Selection Sunday, the projections from this Seed Watch will start to closer align with the seeds you see on Bracket Matrix and our own ColleyvilleAg's bubble watch, but they won't entirely align quite yet.

Once again we're going by Torvik's tourney cast here, though I will note some places where I think the projections might be off.

Tier 1
1 - 1 - Auburn | Lexington
Projected: Alabama (W -9)
1 - 2 - Duke | Raleigh
Projected: at North Carolina (W -9)

• Auburn is really in a class of their own but I think Duke is also basically a lock for a one seed unless North Carolina just absolutely nukes them or something. Duke's resume numbers aren't going to be on par with others there, but they've just absolutely annihilated their way through the ACC, and the committee is going to reward them for it.

Tier 2
1 - 3 - Florida | Raleigh
Projected: Ole Miss (W -12)
1 - 4 - Houston | Wichita
Projected: at Baylor (W -7)
2 - 5 - Alabama | Lexington
Projected: at Auburn (L +9)
2 - 6 - Tennessee | Lexington, Raleigh, Cleveland
Projected: South Carolina (W -14)
2 - 7 - Michigan State | Cleveland
Projected: at Iowa (W -6), Michigan (W -7)

• Alabama is going to end up with a better resume than Tennessee, but since Tennessee recently beat them and Alabama is likely to end the season with three straight losses my gut tells me the committee is going to seed Tennessee ahead. There is some significance here for us, because if Tennessee and Alabama flip spots in the selection order it could impact our location. Instead of Tennessee going to Cleveland, Tennessee would go to Lexington and Alabama would go to Wichita.
• Michigan State almost feels too hot. They're on four straight quad 1A wins. Wild.
• I think Torvik's model is actually undershooting Florida a little bit. I think they're practically a lock for a one seed. Florida, Houston, and Auburn are the only teams that are going to be top four in both the resume and quality metrics.
• There is a BIG gap between these top 7 teams and the next group. So big that I'm not sure anyone can cross it.

Tier 3 - I think right now if you put the committee in the room they might spit these teams out in almost any order.

2 - 8 - Kentucky | ineligible for Lexington, Raleigh, Cleveland, Milwaukee
Projected: at Missouri (L +5)

• I don't get this projection at all unless Torvik is factoring in some kind of blue blood bias in that not only will Kentucky get favorable treatment but that they also beat Duke. About the only thing Kentucky has going for it here is that there's not a huge delta between their resume and predictives. Still, on resume alone, and especially accounting for another loss to Missouri and the fact that Jaxson Robinson isn't returning, I think this overshooting the Wildcats by an entire seed line.

3 - 9 - Texas Tech | Wichita
Projected: at Arizona State (W -6)
3 - 10 - Wisconsin | Milwaukee
Projected: Penn State (W -15)
3 - 11 - Iowa State | Milwaukee, Wichita, Denver
Projected: at Kansas State (W -3)

• I also think this model is overshooting Iowa State, maybe even by more than its overshooting Kentucky.

3 - 12 - Maryland | Raleigh, Cleveland, Providence
Projected: Northwestern (W -10)
4 - 13 - Arizona |Denver
Projected: at Kansas (L +2)
4 - 14 - Purdue | Milwaukee, Lexington, Cleveland, Raleigh, Wichita, Providence
Projected: at Illinois (L +3)
4 -15 - Texas A&M | Wichita, Denver, Lexington, Milwaukee, Raleigh, Cleveland, Providence, Seattle
Projected: at LSU (W -5)

• I try to remove my homer bias here by following the Torvik tourneycast, but I think it's undershooting us, and here's why. We essentially have a new wild card this year, the NET WAB ranking. And the initial 16 the committee put out looked like a pretty strong signal that they were going to rely on it pretty heavily compared to any other metrics out there. In that metric, we're currently #8. Now, I don't think we'll actually get a two seed, but I do currently think this projection is probably undershooting us by 3-4 spots on the seed line because this new metric that doesn't have any historical data to put into the model.

4 - 16 - St. John's | Providence, Cleveland, Raleigh, Lexington, Milwaukee, Wichita, Denver, Seattle
Projected: at Marquette (L +2)
5 - 17 - Missouri |
Projected: Kentucky (W -5)

• This entire group is TIGHT. The Tourneycast average seed of Kentucky is 3.1 and for Missouri it's 4.5. Small changes in the underlying data could mean big moves up the seed line here.
• I also want to reiterate that I think the committee could spit this tier out in basically any order at the moment and it would be a little hard to argue with them.
• There's a pretty big gap from Missouri to Illinois and then a similar gap from Illinois back to Marquette so I think this is basically our lower limit within likely projections.

Weekend viewing guide:

Thursday, March 6:

(2) Michigan State at Iowa - 7 PM - FS1 - Might as well be for Iowa but it probably doesn't matter much

Friday, March 7:

(4) Purdue at (5) Illinois - 7 PM - FOX - I think the tourneycast is also too high on Illinois, so combine that with the fact that it's low on us and I'm not too worried about being jumped by Illinois here.

Saturday, March 8:

(4) St. John's at (5) Marquette - 11 AM - FOX
(2(but really 3)) Kentucky at (5) Missouri - 11 AM - FOX -

• Feels like Missouri is the safer play here, though this is kind of a win/win. If Kentucky wins it keeps the SEC 4 seed in play. If you think South Carolina has a prayer of being Tennessee then pull for the Wildcats here.

Penn State at (3) Wisconsin - 12 PM - Peacock
(3) Iowa State at Kansas State - 12:30 PM - CBS
South Carolina at (2) Tennessee - 1 PM - SECN

• This doesn't matter for seeding but is the second step of the four game series we need.

(2) Alabama at (1) Auburn - 1:30 PM - ESPN
Northwestern at (3) Maryland - 2 PM - Peacock
(4) Texas A&M at LSU - 3 PM - SECN
(4) Arizona at (7) Kansas - 3:30 PM - ESPN
(7) Ole Miss at (1) Florida - 5 PM - SECN

• Also doesn't matter but this is the final step.

(3) Texas Tech at Arizona State - 7 PM - ESPNU
(1) Houston at Baylor - 9 PM - ESPN -

• This is getting really in the weeds and we never want to be for Baylor anyway, but a Houston loss could hurt Texas Tech's metrics slightly since Tech did play Houston twice and Baylor only once.

Quote:

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This is getting really in the weeds and we never want to be for Baylor anyway, but a Houston loss could hurt Texas Tech's metrics slightly since Tech did play Houston twice and Baylor only once

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Also we are for Jackson State over Mississippi Valley since Iowa State played MV. I mean technically like all 150 games on Saturday have some minuscule effect on the numbers but cheering for techs underlying strength to get pulled down when they are one of our best wins is really stretching it

Kidding aside though - this is what I have been saying for a week or so 1-7 is about as much consensus as you will ever get 8-17 is just razor thin depending on what metric you like and it is the difference between a 2 seed and a 5!

I know a lot have BAS and think the committee personally hates A&M, but given how they rewarded us last year, and in the initial reveal, I think the hidden factors like playing (and winning) on the road vs good teams in the non conference, not loading up on quad 4 games will end up being deciding factors in moving A&M up a seed line over what many have predicted.

Kentucky is too overvalued. They're not the same team as they once were, I think they lose at Missouri.