So I've seen that we are about a 3 seed according to most resume metrics (JBR, etc) but closer to a 5-6 seed based on predictive metrics.

Does this make you more hesitant to predict A&M to make the second weekend? Curious as to everyone's thoughts.

In my humble opinion, it comes down to matchups.

I was re-watching the UMBC vs Virginia game from a few years ago and I noticed that Virginia's defense failed them in that game. Their lone calling card failed them and they couldn't keep UMBC from getting to the lane. They outscored them in the paint and then torched them from downtown. UMBC dictated the tempo to their favor and Virginia just couldn't keep up because they were a slower paced team.

That's not to say that the same couldn't happen to us. Not only do we have a defense solely built on preventing players driving down the lane, but our attention to rebounding affects both the offensive and defensive side of the ball.

When it comes down to understanding the game, rebounding is what connect offense to defense and vice versa. It might be the only tangible common denominator actually. If you can rebound the basketball, your offensive metrics will be better because you'll have better opportunities from 2nd, 3rd, etc shots. On the defensive side, if you can rebound at a high percentage, you're keeping the other team from scoring on the 2nd, 3rd, etc chance opportunities.

However, as we have all witnessed, all it takes is for someone to go on a scoring binge and all bets are off. You just have to hold on for dear life and hope that you only have one guy beating you and not two or 3.

It all depends on matchups. It really does. Even though some team may be a higher seed, if their style is uptempo or slowtempo, it can dramatically effect outcomes even though one team may have more quality players.

For example, with us, if we play a team that does a lot of dribble drives and has the quickness to beat us one on one, we will be in trouble. Or if we play someone that has length and can focus on limiting our offensive rebounding, we will be in trouble. But there are a ton of others that favor us. It all depends on matchups.

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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Everything in the tournament is matchups. Just remember that one of the most statistically dominant teams of all time was Virginia and they got beat by 20 by UMBC.

I'd prefer to not play a team that can shoot the lights out from 3 and/or an elite passing team. I'd love to play a team that doesn't have a deep frontcourt and/or a team that fouls a lot.

If deep in the tournament I really like our chances against a similarly defensive minded team that likes to grind it out where we will be able to stay in the game even with an extended scoring drought.

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Yeah,

We can beat anyone, but I tend to agree with this

For me, if we play the way we did against Auburn: meaning don't turn the ball over much, hit the glass hard, hit some timely shots and make 70% of our free throws, we will go far in the tournament no matter who we run into