Has anyone participated in a snake draft in which you draft teams in the tournament. Each team you draft earns points for each win (Seed x Round)

I have no idea of a strategy for this. Is a 3-5 seed the best 1st round pick as they should go 2-3 rounds and is better than a 1 seed winning it?

Or is it the 6 seed which might upset a 3 seed and get 18 points in 2 rounds?

Help, we pick tonight.

Gigemags382 said:

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By my calculation Gonzaga (8 seed) is the highest value at 17.9 expected points. They're a metrics darling despite a lackluster resume, so expected win % is high. But will have to get past Houston.

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mind sharing that data for every team?

I have found betting odds for winning it all and final four, and of course you can find them for all first round games, but I haven't found any for Sweet 16 or Elite 8.

Did you find those or were you just using odds for first round and winning it all?

Does anyone have a good rule of thumb for odds converted into % chance to win?

Example. Auburn to win the 2nd round game is -400, while Uconn is +600.

Does -400 convert to a 80% chance of winning two games while Uconn would be 25%. Trying to leverage draft kings data to build a mathematical formula to calculate point.



Nevermind, google answered it
https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

TXAGGIES said:

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Does anyone have a good rule of thumb for odds converted into % chance to win?

Example. Auburn to win the 2nd round game is -400, while Uconn is +600.

Does -400 convert to a 80% chance of winning two games while Uconn would be 25%. Trying to leverage draft kings data to build a mathematical formula to calculate point.



Nevermind, google answered it
https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

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This site has the formula to help you put it in Excel:

https://www.actionnetwork.com/education/remove-juice-vig

Importantly, after you convert each of the odds into percentages, you then need to remove the vig/juice to get the true odds.

400 odds would convert to 20%, and -600 would convert to 85.714%. But that totals to 105.714%. To get it to 100%:

20% / (20% + 85.714%) = 18.919%
85.714% / (20% + 85.174%) = 81.081%

Edit: Disregard that. You weren't talking about a 1st round matchup. You were talking about futures odds, where you have a list of teams, all with individual odds. That takes a different approach to get true odds. Just realize that if you were to convert each of the odds individually, the % it's telling you is higher than the true odds. You can use a calculator like the one below, but technically you need to enter the odds for every single team in the futures market to get the true odds. Can also be done in Excel, but takes some formulas.

https://www.gamingtoday.com/tools/futures/

It should get me close enough to create an implied point value for every team

Here is my top 10

GONZAGA
MARYLAND
KANSAS
ST Marys
VCU
COLORADO
MARQUETTE
ILLINOIS
TEXAS TECH
BYU

Name
GONZAGA
MARYLAND
KANSAS
ST Marys
VCU
COLORADO
MARQUETTE
ILLINOIS
TEXAS TECH
BYU
ARIZONA
UC SD
CONNECTICUT
LOUISVILLE
MISSOURI
UCLA
CREIGHTON
CLEMSON
BAYLOR
MISSISSIPPI
SAN Diego St / UNC
TENNESSEE
IOWA St
New Mexico
ALABAMA
WISCONSIN
DUKE
AUBURN
FLORIDA
ARKANSAS
MICHIGAN
PURDUE
TEXAS A&M
TEXAS/Xavier
KENTUCKY
GEORGIA
MICHIGAN St
DRAKE
MCNEESE
VANDERBILT
HOUSTON
OREGON
YALE
MISSISSIPPI St
LIBERTY
ST Johns
Utah St
OKLAHOMA
GRAND Canyon
High Point
MEMPHIS
AKRON
TROY
NORFOLK St
BRYANT
LIPSCOMB
UNC - Wilington
MONTANA
OMAHA
WOFFORD
ROBERT Morris
SIUE
ALABAMA St / Saint Francis
AMERICAN / Mt St Mary

Here is who I ended up with: More 7 seeds than I thought, but I picked off the list I had.


#4 Maryland
#7 St. Marys
#12 Colorado St
#7 Marquette
#7 UCLA
#9 Georgia
#1 Houston
#13 High Point

TXAGGIES said:

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Here is who I ended up with: More 7 seeds than I thought, but I picked off the list I had.


#4 Maryland
#7 St. Marys
#12 Colorado St
#7 Marquette
#7 UCLA
#9 Georgia
#1 Houston
#13 High Point

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Looks strong. I'd be surprised if anyone else has a better top 5 than you from an expected points perspective (you have 5 out of the top 16!).

This type of scoring setup will likely lead to very high variance. Your top 5, though high expected points, could easily all lose their first game. Would need to play several years to see how the strategy plays out. But I'd expect you to win a lot on average.

Report back how it goes!

How did your strategy seem to compare to others? Were there some people who picked almost all high seeds (or all low seeds)?

TXAGGIES said:

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Has anyone participated in a snake draft in which you draft teams in the tournament. Each team you draft earns points for each win (Seed x Round)

I have no idea of a strategy for this. Is a 3-5 seed the best 1st round pick as they should go 2-3 rounds and is better than a 1 seed winning it?

Or is it the 6 seed which might upset a 3 seed and get 18 points in 2 rounds?

Help, we pick tonight.

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Every year I play in an 8 man pool, snake draft 8 teams and it's pays like this:

.50 per seed multiplied by the round.

So a 10 seed that wins the 1st round pays you $5 from each of the other 7 guys. A 2nd round win would pay you $10 and a 3rd round win $15, etc.

It can be nerve racking and the strategy is fun. Do you go for all top 4 seeds and hope to squeeze out a small profit or do you go big on upsets for a high risk/reward strategy. It can get expensive and it's horrible when you're out of teams after the first weekend and there's cinderellas alive.

PJYoung said:

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TXAGGIES said:

---

Has anyone participated in a snake draft in which you draft teams in the tournament. Each team you draft earns points for each win (Seed x Round)

I have no idea of a strategy for this. Is a 3-5 seed the best 1st round pick as they should go 2-3 rounds and is better than a 1 seed winning it?

Or is it the 6 seed which might upset a 3 seed and get 18 points in 2 rounds?

Help, we pick tonight.

---

Every year I play in an 8 man pool, snake draft 8 teams and it's pays like this:

.50 per seed multiplied by the round.

So a 10 seed that wins the 1st round pays you $5 from each of the other 7 guys. A 2nd round win would pay you $10 and a 3rd round win $15, etc.

It can be nerve racking and the strategy is fun. Do you go for all top 4 seeds and hope to squeeze out a small profit or do you go big on upsets for a high risk/reward strategy. It can get expensive and it's horrible when you're out of teams after the first weekend and there's cinderellas alive.

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Woah that could get expensive (or profitable). What's the highest any single person has won / lost in a year?

PJYoung said:

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TXAGGIES said:

---

Has anyone participated in a snake draft in which you draft teams in the tournament. Each team you draft earns points for each win (Seed x Round)

I have no idea of a strategy for this. Is a 3-5 seed the best 1st round pick as they should go 2-3 rounds and is better than a 1 seed winning it?

Or is it the 6 seed which might upset a 3 seed and get 18 points in 2 rounds?

Help, we pick tonight.

---

Every year I play in an 8 man pool, snake draft 8 teams and it's pays like this:

.50 per seed multiplied by the round.

So a 10 seed that wins the 1st round pays you $5 from each of the other 7 guys. A 2nd round win would pay you $10 and a 3rd round win $15, etc.

It can be nerve racking and the strategy is fun. Do you go for all top 4 seeds and hope to squeeze out a small profit or do you go big on upsets for a high risk/reward strategy. It can get expensive and it's horrible when you're out of teams after the first weekend and there's cinderellas alive.

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we are doing $0.25 per seed x round

There really wasn't much strategy from others, mainly look at higher seeds who were favored to win

TXAGGIES said:

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Here is who I ended up with: More 7 seeds than I thought, but I picked off the list I had.


#4 Maryland
#7 St. Marys
#12 Colorado St
#7 Marquette
#7 UCLA
#9 Georgia
#1 Houston
#13 High Point

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I was about to start a thread for this style of picks. We do the same, except you can not duplicate a seed, and you have to take at least 1 team from each region. I like that you guys use a multiplier by the round, which is not something we do, which I'll recommend for next year because nobody picks the #1 or 2 seeds.

I'm copying your work, but will replace the later 7 seeds and probably the #1.

Gigemags382 said:

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PJYoung said:

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TXAGGIES said:

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Has anyone participated in a snake draft in which you draft teams in the tournament. Each team you draft earns points for each win (Seed x Round)

I have no idea of a strategy for this. Is a 3-5 seed the best 1st round pick as they should go 2-3 rounds and is better than a 1 seed winning it?

Or is it the 6 seed which might upset a 3 seed and get 18 points in 2 rounds?

Help, we pick tonight.

---

Every year I play in an 8 man pool, snake draft 8 teams and it's pays like this:

.50 per seed multiplied by the round.

So a 10 seed that wins the 1st round pays you $5 from each of the other 7 guys. A 2nd round win would pay you $10 and a 3rd round win $15, etc.

It can be nerve racking and the strategy is fun. Do you go for all top 4 seeds and hope to squeeze out a small profit or do you go big on upsets for a high risk/reward strategy. It can get expensive and it's horrible when you're out of teams after the first weekend and there's cinderellas alive.

---

Woah that could get expensive (or profitable). What's the highest any single person has won / lost in a year?

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$480 win and it seems like around a $300 loss.

Last year NC State went to the final 4 as an 11

11*1 = 11
11*2 = 22
11*3 = 33
11*4 = 44

At $0.50 then made someone $55.00

TXAGGIES said:

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Last year NC State went to the final 4 as an 11

11*1 = 11
11*2 = 22
11*3 = 33
11*4 = 44

At $0.50 then made someone $55.00

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More like it lost each of the other 7 guys in the pool $55.

That one team made somebody $385.

Ha that dude won $250 last year and the season before (his first) he lost $293. So yeah, story checks out.

We do a similar game, win points double per round. 8 players and each get 8 teams.

PJYoung said:

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TXAGGIES said:

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Last year NC State went to the final 4 as an 11

11*1 = 11
11*2 = 22
11*3 = 33
11*4 = 44

At $0.50 then made someone $55.00

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More like it lost each of the other 7 guys in the pool $55.

That one team made somebody $385.

Ha that dude won $250 last year and the season before (his first) he lost $293. So yeah, story checks out.

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Yep, each player pays him that, then you net it all out at the end.

TXAGGIES said:

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Here is who I ended up with: More 7 seeds than I thought, but I picked off the list I had.


#4 Maryland
#7 St. Marys
#12 Colorado St
#7 Marquette
#7 UCLA
#9 Georgia
#1 Houston
#13 High Point

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I can't say I am too upset with 1.5 games to go. If Marquette pulls it out, it will be a great start. 4 of my top 5 picks won and just need a few of these teams to make next week.