I'll be honest, this Yale matchup has me a little concerned, so I did a deep dive into them. Here's what I found.
Here are Yale's KenPom Ratings (National Ranking)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency - 115.1 Points/100 possessions (58th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency - 104.1 Points/100 possessions (117th)
These 2 metrics are adjusted for opponents faced.
Fightin' Texas Aggies
AdjOE - 116.2 Points/100 possessions (42nd)
AdjDE - 92.1 Points/100 possessions (7th)
Clearly Yale is an inferior team on paper to us. Hence why they're a 13 seed and we're a 4 seed.
However, let's dive a lot deeper into this.
Obviously our offense goes as how frequently we get second chances. Yale has the 14th best Rebounding Margin in the country (Ags are 3rd), but that is against primarily mid-major opponents. Ags grab 40% of our misses (#1 nationally) while Yale grabs 77% of opponents' misses (#21 nationally). Yale does this by gang rebounding. They will send 4-5 guys crashing to the boards when their opponent shoots. This means they don't try to push much for transition points.
Defensively they don't try to heat up a ballhandler like we do, especially on perimeter screens. They will go under screens all day long. If Wade and Phelps are hot, they'll get PLENTY of good looks at the 3 ball. If they're not, we better not fall in love with the 3 ball unless we are grabbing a lot of the misses. This could be a big game for Wilcher since they go under screens so much.
They will double the post down low, and they will bring help on penetration because their MO is to plug the paint. They force opponents into jump shots at a 98th percentile rate. They will start helping off as soon as a ballhandler gets inside the 3 point line. This also helps them begin to get into rebounding positioning. They have one rim protector in Aletan (6'10"), but outside of him, they protect the paint by throwing bodies at you and they don't foul that much. This plays very well into defending our dribble penetration. This will also leave kick-out shooters open. Yes, unfortunately we will probably see Solo and Jace shoot a few 3's each. However, due to how Yale plugs the paint with numbers and doesn't foul, we will have to shoot and make some 3's. Phelps, Wade, and Manny cannot continually force the issue at the rim if we're not getting calls.
Offensively they are a lot like us in that they don't take a ton of jump shots. They are in the 8th percentile nationally in jump shot generated offense. This is because they post up on the blocks (90th percentile in post up rate) and run a lot of motion off screeners. They're also in the 80th percentile in pick & roll ballhandler rate. They want to get shots in the paint regardless of what it takes to get there. They'll let Aletan post up and go to work, but they'll also use screens or motion to get their smaller size bigs (Townsend - 6'7" and Simmons - 6'6") into leveraged positioning. They're guards will also try to penetrate here and there, but I wouldn't say they do it as often as we do. They aren't going to force it all the way to the rack like Manny and Phelps do, but that's because their other 4 guys won't be standing around when it happens. They will be getting other guys open or into better positioning while the drive is happening, and they will maintain good spacing. However, this is what makes them a poorer offensive rebounding team than us. They aren't going to send 3 or 4 guys after an offensive board. They will primarily rely on their 2 bigs down low to work the glass, and they do pretty good for themselves. Nowhere near elite.
Rebounding summary is they're the opposite of us. They REALLY emphasize limiting opponent second chances, but they only put forth an ok effort into offensive rebounding.
Poulakidas is the clear leader of this offense, though. He has the ability to shoot well from all 3 levels and is a decent shooter in traffic. He has a pretty stroke. He is about the only one that will pull up for jump shots, but that's because he's comfortable shooting them and he can hit them. We all know about their 3 PT% (38.5%, #9 Nationally), but they don't shoot a ton of 3's per game (19.5 attempts/game, #308 Nationally). The 3 ball is not what they're primarily looking for, but when they inevitably get good looks at them from their off-ball screens and motion, they will take and make them at a high clip. Poulakidas is really the only one that will take contested 3's, but he will run the offense some before he fires.
Our switching will help eliminate shooters coming open from their off-ball movement, but we have to stay in front of their guards on the dribble drive to prevent having to go into rotation. It is especially important with how well Yale spaces the floor. Allowing penetration will kill us because they have multiple guys that shoot 3's well, despite they're fewer attempts. If we don't stay in front of them, it's going to be a very uneasy night for us.
SUMMARY KEYS TO THE GAME
DEFENSE...STAY IN FRONT OF THEIR GUARDS. STAY IN FRONT OF THEIR GUARDS. STAY IN FRONT OF THEIR GUARDS. They're screens and motion don't scare me because we switch everything. They'll get us switched into mismatches some in their pick & roll game, but not enough to kill us doing it. If we stay in front of their guards, they won't be able to score enough to keep up with us because they won't want to take enough contested 3's to stay with us. If we give them open 3 looks, I believe they'll take well above their season average in attempts.
OFFENSE...Test their lack of athleticism down low early on dribble drive and with our bigs. If we're getting calls, pour it on them. If not, we will have to hit some pretty good looks from 3. They will give them to us all day long because they aren't athletic enough to guard both levels. Wilcher needs to get some bigger minutes in this game because he will be able to get open often. However, we shouldn't just take 3's every time we get that open look if we're not hitting them. They will likely be able to limit our offensive rebound rate to below our season average just by throwing sheer numbers at the glass.
Overall, if we stay out of foul trouble (looking at you Solo and Payne), our athletes will just flat out-athlete them. If we can hit better than ~30% of our 3's, we're going to be scouting the Michigan/UCSD game after ours to start prep for round 2.
BTHO Yale!!
Here are Yale's KenPom Ratings (National Ranking)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency - 115.1 Points/100 possessions (58th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency - 104.1 Points/100 possessions (117th)
These 2 metrics are adjusted for opponents faced.
Fightin' Texas Aggies
AdjOE - 116.2 Points/100 possessions (42nd)
AdjDE - 92.1 Points/100 possessions (7th)
Clearly Yale is an inferior team on paper to us. Hence why they're a 13 seed and we're a 4 seed.
However, let's dive a lot deeper into this.
Obviously our offense goes as how frequently we get second chances. Yale has the 14th best Rebounding Margin in the country (Ags are 3rd), but that is against primarily mid-major opponents. Ags grab 40% of our misses (#1 nationally) while Yale grabs 77% of opponents' misses (#21 nationally). Yale does this by gang rebounding. They will send 4-5 guys crashing to the boards when their opponent shoots. This means they don't try to push much for transition points.
Defensively they don't try to heat up a ballhandler like we do, especially on perimeter screens. They will go under screens all day long. If Wade and Phelps are hot, they'll get PLENTY of good looks at the 3 ball. If they're not, we better not fall in love with the 3 ball unless we are grabbing a lot of the misses. This could be a big game for Wilcher since they go under screens so much.
They will double the post down low, and they will bring help on penetration because their MO is to plug the paint. They force opponents into jump shots at a 98th percentile rate. They will start helping off as soon as a ballhandler gets inside the 3 point line. This also helps them begin to get into rebounding positioning. They have one rim protector in Aletan (6'10"), but outside of him, they protect the paint by throwing bodies at you and they don't foul that much. This plays very well into defending our dribble penetration. This will also leave kick-out shooters open. Yes, unfortunately we will probably see Solo and Jace shoot a few 3's each. However, due to how Yale plugs the paint with numbers and doesn't foul, we will have to shoot and make some 3's. Phelps, Wade, and Manny cannot continually force the issue at the rim if we're not getting calls.
Offensively they are a lot like us in that they don't take a ton of jump shots. They are in the 8th percentile nationally in jump shot generated offense. This is because they post up on the blocks (90th percentile in post up rate) and run a lot of motion off screeners. They're also in the 80th percentile in pick & roll ballhandler rate. They want to get shots in the paint regardless of what it takes to get there. They'll let Aletan post up and go to work, but they'll also use screens or motion to get their smaller size bigs (Townsend - 6'7" and Simmons - 6'6") into leveraged positioning. They're guards will also try to penetrate here and there, but I wouldn't say they do it as often as we do. They aren't going to force it all the way to the rack like Manny and Phelps do, but that's because their other 4 guys won't be standing around when it happens. They will be getting other guys open or into better positioning while the drive is happening, and they will maintain good spacing. However, this is what makes them a poorer offensive rebounding team than us. They aren't going to send 3 or 4 guys after an offensive board. They will primarily rely on their 2 bigs down low to work the glass, and they do pretty good for themselves. Nowhere near elite.
Rebounding summary is they're the opposite of us. They REALLY emphasize limiting opponent second chances, but they only put forth an ok effort into offensive rebounding.
Poulakidas is the clear leader of this offense, though. He has the ability to shoot well from all 3 levels and is a decent shooter in traffic. He has a pretty stroke. He is about the only one that will pull up for jump shots, but that's because he's comfortable shooting them and he can hit them. We all know about their 3 PT% (38.5%, #9 Nationally), but they don't shoot a ton of 3's per game (19.5 attempts/game, #308 Nationally). The 3 ball is not what they're primarily looking for, but when they inevitably get good looks at them from their off-ball screens and motion, they will take and make them at a high clip. Poulakidas is really the only one that will take contested 3's, but he will run the offense some before he fires.
Our switching will help eliminate shooters coming open from their off-ball movement, but we have to stay in front of their guards on the dribble drive to prevent having to go into rotation. It is especially important with how well Yale spaces the floor. Allowing penetration will kill us because they have multiple guys that shoot 3's well, despite they're fewer attempts. If we don't stay in front of them, it's going to be a very uneasy night for us.
SUMMARY KEYS TO THE GAME
DEFENSE...STAY IN FRONT OF THEIR GUARDS. STAY IN FRONT OF THEIR GUARDS. STAY IN FRONT OF THEIR GUARDS. They're screens and motion don't scare me because we switch everything. They'll get us switched into mismatches some in their pick & roll game, but not enough to kill us doing it. If we stay in front of their guards, they won't be able to score enough to keep up with us because they won't want to take enough contested 3's to stay with us. If we give them open 3 looks, I believe they'll take well above their season average in attempts.
OFFENSE...Test their lack of athleticism down low early on dribble drive and with our bigs. If we're getting calls, pour it on them. If not, we will have to hit some pretty good looks from 3. They will give them to us all day long because they aren't athletic enough to guard both levels. Wilcher needs to get some bigger minutes in this game because he will be able to get open often. However, we shouldn't just take 3's every time we get that open look if we're not hitting them. They will likely be able to limit our offensive rebound rate to below our season average just by throwing sheer numbers at the glass.
Overall, if we stay out of foul trouble (looking at you Solo and Payne), our athletes will just flat out-athlete them. If we can hit better than ~30% of our 3's, we're going to be scouting the Michigan/UCSD game after ours to start prep for round 2.
BTHO Yale!!