Has NIL and Transfer Portal been bad for the tournament?

Texas A&M

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I think that we've only had one significant upset (McNeese/Clemson), and the Sweet 16 is power conference teams only. Granted it is just looking at this year's result's, but I see this becoming more common as we go.

This isn’t meant as a criticism, btw. It’s just basic economics. The power four schools now have the resources to grab any player that excels at a mid major with no rules constraints. It’s a truly different playing field. You often had power four with younger, more talented but…
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) March 24, 2025

Proposition Joe

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8:34a, 3/24/25

And by "thesis" he means something obvious to just about everyone who pays attention to college hoops.

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NyAggie

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8:54a, 3/24/25

AG

Yep

I noticed the lack of upsets in the first round as well

The mid majors just looked more overmatched than ever before

In addition to college football, the best playoff in sports (the ncaa tournament) might be another thing that nil and the portal have ruined.

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bobinator

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8:56a, 3/24/25

AG

I think there's a lot of factors here beyond NIL and the portal, and that's even assuming this trend holds up long-term which isn't a given.

A lot of schools that used to be the kind of mid-major powers that would make runs in the tournament but now over the last decade several of them have moved into power conferences. (Houston, Creighton, UConn, Butler, Xavier, BYU, Utah, Cincinnati...) so there are just a lot more power conference schools than there used to be
The seeding in the tournament has gotten much better. We kill the committee over a few small things each year but overall the bracket is much better than it used to be back when things like last ten games were major factors and you had mediocre teams get hot for a couple of weeks at the end and be way overseeded. As a result, there's probably fewer huge seed line upsets because the high seeds are much more likely to just be very good teams.
The style of the game itself has changed in the last decade or so. You used to basically have every major conference team playing inside-out basketball and the way teams could pull off upsets is just chuck up 30 threes and be hot that night, but now basically everyone chucks up 30 threes a game. Basketball is a much more efficient sports offensively than it was 10-15 years ago. This is kind of fuzzy math but by KenPom, an offensive efficiency of 110 would have ranked you 60th in the country in 2010, now it ranks you 109th.

But there's no question NIL and the portal are having an impact across the board. I said this when it first happened and everyone freaked out about the "rich getting richer" but that was never the biggest thing. The Dukes and Kentuckys of the world can still only put x number of people on their roster (or the Alabamas and Georgias in football.)

The big tidal shift was always going to be that it made the middle and bottom end schools in power conferences much better.

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Pumpkinhead

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In reply to NyAggie • 9:15a, 3/24/25

AG

NyAggie said:
Yep

I noticed the lack of upsets in the first round as well

The mid majors just looked more overmatched than ever before

In addition to college football, the best playoff in sports (the ncaa tournament) might be another thing that nil and the portal have ruined.

If 'ruined' means the mid-majors suffer but we no longer have to see a very small group of 'blue blood' schools win the national championship every single year, because there is more parity between the Power Conference teams...then I'll accept that state of 'ruin'.

Frankly it gets kind of boring if the national champion in football or basketball every single season is typically from a group of like 6-8 universities who have monopolized the sport. Unless of course, you are in one of those privileged sports fan bases

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BQ_90

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9:20a, 3/24/25

AG

it was soft bubble. Also I think this year mid majors are down. One years results doesn't make a trend IMO.

AgEfan

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9:22a, 3/24/25

It's the covid 5th year that is causing the biggest impact. Teams like Florida, Bama, Auburn, Tennessee etc have a lot of 5th year guys.

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bobinator

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In reply to AgEfan • 9:24a, 3/24/25

AG

Yeah this is another big factor too, we'll see what the impact of all of those players leaving is next year.

rgag12

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9:26a, 3/24/25

AG

We've had tournament results in years past, pre-NIL that were extremely similar to this years.

The only conclusion you can draw from the tournament is that it isn't an event where you can draw conclusions.

Clay Travis is paid to make political and sports takes. They aren't nuanced, but he's good at his job and knows what's going to generate views/discussion.

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Wabs

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9:30a, 3/24/25

AG

Just noticed that we beat 5 of the sweet 16 teams this season. I wonder if there's another team that can claim the same. Moral victories!

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Luke The Drifter

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9:37a, 3/24/25

AG

As a general rule, I believe NIL and the portal (in their current state) are bad for all college athletics. To clarify, I do not mind the players being compensated and I do not mind that they can transfer. But the way NIL and the portal are today with essentially no rules, regulations, consistency, or otherwise, it does seem those factors are slowly eroding the integrity - and for me, the enjoyment - of college sports.

But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)

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bobinator

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In reply to Luke The Drifter • 9:45a, 3/24/25

AG

Because it's not college sports anymore. It barely has been for a long time, but some of the old rules restricting player movement at least help keep that mirage that it was.

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NyAggie

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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 10:31a, 3/24/25

AG

Pumpkinhead said:
NyAggie said:
Yep

I noticed the lack of upsets in the first round as well

The mid majors just looked more overmatched than ever before

In addition to college football, the best playoff in sports (the ncaa tournament) might be another thing that nil and the portal have ruined.
If 'ruined' means the mid-majors suffer but we no longer have to see a very small group of 'blue blood' schools win the national championship every single year, because there is more parity between the Power Conference teams...then I'll accept that state of 'ruin'.

Frankly it gets kind of boring if the national champion in football or basketball every single season is typically from a group of like 6-8 universities who have monopolized the sport. Unless of course, you are in one of those privileged sports fan bases

I'll agree with that , and it's a perspective I didn't think of. . I like more teams being able to win it all but I also liked all the upsets

I guess it's a trade off.

texagbeliever

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1:21p, 3/24/25

The fix to the NIL problem would be that universities should have to pay other colleges when they get the player.

Maybe make it a 2 or 3 multiple of the NIL guaranteed deal.

So for example.
Player at A&M gets $100k a year in NIL. Guaranteed for 2 years.
Kentucky comes along and offers that player a bigger NIL deal. Kentucky then has to also pay A&M $200k.

The idea being it will still allow money to flow to smaller schools and rewards them for developing star players. It also makes it way more expensive for players to switch between similar sized schools.

bobinator

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In reply to texagbeliever • 1:25p, 3/24/25

AG

I mean that's never going to happen on NIL because the schools don't directly pay the money.

Any sort of cap or limit or "guardrails" or anything on player compensation is going to fail because the players can't collectively bargain. It will get killed in court every single time.

The only hope to stop the open market is for the athletes to become employees of the universities. That comes with its own set of problems, but until that happens, there is no way to cap the player movement or the player compensation that won't immediately get ripped apart.

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Gap

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4:08p, 3/24/25

AG

The schools become the biggest NIL payer beginning this Fall. $22.5M per SEC school in direct payments to athletes. And yes, the "revenue sharing" payment that I'm referencing is for NIL rights.

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DTP02

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In reply to AgEfan • 4:20p, 3/24/25

AG

AgEfan said:
It's the covid 5th year that is causing the biggest impact. Teams like Florida, Bama, Auburn, Tennessee etc have a lot of 5th year guys.

Very big factor. Of course NIL plays a role in that as well.

Arguably as big a difference, if not bigger, in the impact of NIL is the ability of major programs to add proven veterans, not just talent.

Used to be the veteran-heavy low or mid major team could rely on that as a relative advantage vs a more talented major program who happens to be going thru a youth movement cycle.

But major programs rarely have a big experience disparity anymore. That's arguably a bigger difference than any change in the overall talent allocation. That will mitigate somewhat with the last of the Covid players falling off, but every coach in every sport appreciates players with experience so I don't think it ever goes back to what it was pre-Covid and pre-NIL.

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