Torvik currently projects A&M to finish 8-10 in conference play.

If we call any projected game with a 60% (or higher) chance of winning as a likely win, and a 40% (or below) as a likely loss, that leaves us with this (obviously there is a huge difference between a 60% chance and an 85% chance or a 10% and 35%, but we'll just go with it):

Likely Wins:
LSU
Oklahoma
Miss State
South Carolina
Mizzou
Ole Miss
Texas

Likely Losses:
@Auburn
@TN
@Texas
@Georgia
@Alabama
@Vandy
@Arkansas
@LSU

Toss-up:
Florida
@Oklahoma
Kentucky

I'm going with 4-3 in the likely win category, 2-6 in the likely loss category, and 1-2 in the toss-ups for a 7-11 finish.

7-11.

I have done zero research on this, so I could be way off, but I suspect that we have run up the score against low-level competition more than most teams in our class (i.e. bad/middling major conference teams). If that's true, I would think that would push up our computer-based projections a bit over reality, so 5 wins doesn't seem unreasonable at all.

the sec is not nearly as good as it was last year that is a huge benefit for us in year 1.

i think we go anywhere from 7-11 to 10-8. three to four close games will determine whether this season is a success or not. we win the close ones we could slide into the tourney.


smu loss and the way it happened were deflating but lets see if we learned anything ing the next time that scenario comes up.

I think our offense can be shut down. The hope is that teams get tired playing our style and make mistakes. If we play a bad defensive team we can win.

8-10 and NIT is my best guess. I'd put that in the category of meeting or slightly exceeding expectations.

I would expect us to get better as the year goes on (ie outperform Torvik), but I think the Mgbako injury shut down the easiest path toward that.

I'm going 9-9 for now. This LSU game is so huge though. If we can win it, then we're in the fight but if we lose it we're in trouble.

I'm thinking 9-9 if all players stay healthy.

Seven Costanza said:

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Torvik currently projects A&M to finish 8-10 in conference play.

If we call any projected game with a 60% (or higher) chance of winning as a likely win, and a 40% (or below) as a likely loss, that leaves us with this (obviously there is a huge difference between a 60% chance and an 85% chance or a 10% and 35%, but we'll just go with it):

Likely Wins:
LSU
Oklahoma
@Miss State
@South Carolina
Mizzou
Ole Miss
Texas

Likely Losses:
@Auburn
@TN
@Texas
@Georgia
@Alabama
@Vandy
@Arkansas
@LSU

Toss-up:
Florida
@Oklahoma
Kentucky

I'm going with 4-3 in the likely win category, 2-6 in the likely loss category, and 1-2 in the toss-ups for a 7-11 finish.

7-11.

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Where you are projecting wins and loses against teams, i don't know where you will be wrong but you will be wrong multiple times. This team will be all over the map with great games against a few good teams and terrible games against bad teams. The overall wins will be probably 7 to 10. But we will have a couple of statement programs wins and several wth games against the bottom dwellers.
Next year Bucky will be able to put a much more consistent team together. I think he was the ADs best hire so far.

7-11. Some head scratchers in there, both ways. Losing Mac is going to hurt. Think we miss out on NIT at 17-14 for year 1.

7-11 based purely on vibes. I have not watched enough of the other SEC teams to gauge how good the league is this year and how we match up. That Okie St gave terrified me, but I think we have improved a lot since then.

We really have 11 away games and 7 home games? Jeez does t.u. have 11 home games? Sankey really does hate us.

My mistake. Typed SC and MSU as road games for some reason.

6-12

10-8 I think this team improves throughout the season (similar to Buzz teams lol)

7-11 at best.

4-14 at worst.

I'm in this range:

10-8
9-9 most likely
8-10

I see virtually no path to 12 or more wins.

I doubt we get only 4-5 wins unless we get into some kind of chemistry/mentally related death spiral and Bucky can't figure out how to pull us out. That stretch from Jan 31st to Feb 25th is where something like this might happen. We will likely start that stretch 0-3 with losses @UGA, @Bama & home against Fla.

8-10

I posted on another thread that I think we'll shock a couple of teams but still have some WTF losses.

Method Man said:

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I think our offense can be shut down. The hope is that teams get tired playing our style and make mistakes. If we play a bad defensive team we can win.

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Moving forward Agee will be doubled which will leave guys wide open outside. We've got to make those moving forward. This was our first close game victory.

Biz Ag said:

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8-10

I posted on another thread that I think we'll shock a couple of teams but still have some WTF losses.

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Everyone has been saying this before the season so thanks for reiterating.

phatty26 said:

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Method Man said:

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I think our offense can be shut down. The hope is that teams get tired playing our style and make mistakes. If we play a bad defensive team we can win.

---

Moving forward Agee will be doubled which will leave guys wide open outside. We've got to make those moving forward. This was our first close game victory.

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we also need Agee to pass a little better than he did today. Still love him.

MarcAg said:

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I'm down bad on this team right now and got us at 5 wins. That SMU game crushed me. We haven't beaten anyone with a pulse.

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Welp, you're off. SMU also beat the hell out of a ranked team today.

Ag1188 said:

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MarcAg said:

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I'm down bad on this team right now and got us at 5 wins. That SMU game crushed me. We haven't beaten anyone with a pulse.

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Welp, you're off. SMU also beat the hell out of a ranked team today.

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I already thought SMU was good. It wasn't that I thought we lost to a bad team. It was the disastrous way we lost to SMU.

8-10

I thought UCF would get a bump in NET and would bump our NET higher. UCF actually dropped 2 NET spots after beating Kansas. I don't understand that

10-8 with an NCAA tournament appearance.

I'm sticking with the same 6-12 i had before the season started.

I hope we can shoot our way to much better.

WestTexAg12 said:

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I thought UCF would get a bump in NET and would bump our NET higher. UCF actually dropped 2 NET spots after beating Kansas. I don't understand that

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NET is terrible early in the season.

Also a home win over a good-but-not-great Kansas team isn't going to change the data all that much.

Looks like I was seeing a different website for NET.
This website seems incorrect.
https://bballnet.com/

In this website, https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings
Aggies move up to 55
SMU moved up to 23
UCF moved up to 30

If you have us as 4-3 in games you analyze as "likely wins" it makes me wonder if you understand the term "likely wins"

The percentages are from Torvik. I think calling the games projected to have a 60+% chance of winning as "likely wins" is not unreasonable. I suppose "games in which we are projected to be favored to win outside of a narrow toss-up range, according to this one system" would be a better way to phrase it. Prior to yesterday, the cumulative projected win percentages of those games would have put us around 5-2, so 4-3 doesn't seem out of line.

Of course the best way to use that tool is just to take his overall projection since it's the cumulative percentages, but I like the idea of breaking the games into smaller, totally arbitrary categories that oversimplify the projections and makes it less reliable.