8/9-seed would play #1 seed in round 2.

12-seed would play #4 seed in round 2.

Just wondering the consensus on here. I just want to make the Sweet 16. Obviously a 12-seed would have to play a 5- seed to start, versus the 8 vs 9-seed game to start.

Yeah it kind of depends on if your goal is to win the whole tournament or just win one game or a couple of games.

For this season I just want the best seed we can get because to get in and win one game would be absolutely huge. The odds of winning one game as an 8 seed are better than the odds of winning one game as an 11 seed (assuming, per tradition, we're not counting the First Four)

I also think our odds of making the Final Four are better as an 8/9 seed because as GCP12 pointed you, you get to face the 1 seed on a two-day turnaround instead of them having a week to prepare for you.

But the odds of making the Sweet 16 are probably better as an 11 seed than they are as an 8/9 seed. That seems to be backed up by this data.

Rather be a 10 seed with this team

Odds of making the Sweet Sixteen have historically been higher as an 11 than an 8/9, but it's not really a seed that you want to shoot for since it means you are right on the cusp of being left out of the tournament (and may have to play a play-in game). Try to finish as high as you can, but know that winding up as an 11 has a silver lining.

8/9 line is the wirst wspecially because the 1 seed you are playing will likely be at a site that is basically a home game for the 1 seed

Would much rather be 8/9 and be fairly confident on selection day than be around 11 caliber and leave whether you're in the tournament up to the committee

Sq 17 said:

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8/9 line is the wirst wspecially because the 1 seed you are playing will likely be at a site that is basically a home game for the 1 seed

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Anything 9 and below your realistic goal is to ry and win one game. The 9 seed gives you a much better chance to win that game. If you want to make a deep run you need to get a better seed.

Also as an 11 seed, you aren't very good. You're not going on a run.

I assumed this premise of this question is that, all other things equal, if you got to slot yourself into the bracket which slot would you prefer.

Otherwise obviously you want to be as good of a team as you can be.

This reminds me of the suggestion that instead of the committee seeding the bracket they should just rank the 68 teams and then have the coaches decide, in order, where they want to be slotted into the field.

My question is simply which seed would be easier to make it to the 2nd weekend - the Sweet 16. Just assume the team is equally as good, but lost some close games to ranked teams and fell some.

Chat GPT:

Quote:

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Historically in the men's NCAA Tournament (since the field expanded in 1985), 12-seeds have reached the Sweet 16 more often than 9-seeds.

Here's what the stats show:
Sweet 16 appearances (historical basis):
No. 12 seeds: Been relatively successful for a double-digit seed ESPN notes that since 1985, 12-seeds have as many Sweet 16 appearances as No. 7 seeds and a healthy total overall.
No. 9 seeds: According to historical brackets, 9-seeds have fewer Sweet 16 appearances than 12-seeds over the same span.

9-seeds' odds to reach the Sweet 16 are lower around ~5.1 % historically.
12-seeds' odds are notably higher around ~14.1 % historically per some statistical analyses.

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Google's Ai

Quote:

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Rarity vs. Lower Seeds: While 8 seeds frequently reach the Sweet 16, lower seeds (like 10, 11, 12+) make it even more often in recent tournaments, with at least one double-digit seed reaching the Sweet 16 in most years since expansion.

Deep Runs: Several 8 seeds have had historic runs, with four reaching the National Championship game: Villanova (won in 1985), Butler (2011), Kentucky (2014), and North Carolina (2022).

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I would rather win out and be a 1 seed. Duh

As an 8, we are clearly a better team than an 11or12
#CapObvious


Regardless, Bucky's system is made for March, get hot in that gym and who knows what could happen.
Polar opposite from Buzz's plodding O with hopes the other team didn't get hot.

CJohns77 said:

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The 1 seeds this season might be historic.

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…how so?

t - cam said:

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Also as an 11 seed, you aren't very good. You're not going on a run.

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Not a lot of difference between the worst 9's and the best 11's
Obviously the 9s have the better resume but a couple of bad mid season losses or a slow start will not prevent a team from getting hot playing well and advancing

Would we rather be a #1 and host some NIT games?

_lefraud_ said:

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Would we rather be a #1 and host some NIT games?

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without a doubt

hell ****ing no NIT sucks

A lot of y'all new to this board and season buzz"boring ball coach" is gone. This coach and team are totally different we are just now rounding into shape.

I repeat NEVER, NEVER, NEVER is it ****ing better to go to the ****ty NIT instead of the GREATEST TOURNAMENT IN SPORTS. There is nothing better than the first week of the tournament.

Who gives a **** about hosting a midweek NIT game.

t - cam said:

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Also as an 11 seed, you aren't very good. You're not going on a run.

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11 is the same as a 6 seed. So it is still better than the 8/9 game.

To further this point 8/9 winners last year were 0-4 vs 1 seed.

6-11 match was 3-1, but this matchup was 2-2 vs 3 seed.

Let's do well enough to get a 7 or better

phatty26 said:

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A lot of y'all new to this board and season buzz"boring ball coach" is gone. This coach and team are totally different we are just now rounding into shape.

I repeat NEVER, NEVER, NEVER is it ****ing better to go to the ****ty NIT instead of the GREATEST TOURNAMENT IN SPORTS. There is nothing better than the first week of the tournament.

Who gives a **** about hosting a midweek NIT game.

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But think of all the extra practice and reps if you make it to the NIT championship game…and the banners. Don't forget the banners.

Doesn't matter if most of your team won't be back.

Bucky saying he cobbled a team together in a week that he coached to the dance against all odds does way more for recruiting the next 2 years than an NIT run.

No way how many SR's do we have this day and age this isnt the old days before the transfer portal. This makes no sense to play those type of meaningless games that end up costing more than you make.

8-9 seeds draw

Equal team game 1
#1 game 2
#4 or 5 game3

11 seed draws
#6 game 1
#3 game 2
#2 game 3

phatty26 said:

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t - cam said:

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Also as an 11 seed, you aren't very good. You're not going on a run.

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11 is the same as a 6 seed. So it is still better than the 8/9 game.

To further this point 8/9 winners last year were 0-4 vs 1 seed.

6-11 match was 3-1, but this matchup was 2-2 vs 3 seed.

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To go even further back:

Between 1985-2024, 11 seeds won ~39% of 6v11 matchups and have seen multiple teams make final 4 runs within the last decade (Loyola Chicago, UCLA, NC State), and in 7 out of the last 10 tournaments the 11th seeds won at least half of their opening round matchups.

11 seeds are arguably the new 12 over 5.

In general I'd argue some of the historical data is more evidence of how bad the seeding process used to be as much as anything else. I don't know that we've given enough credit to how much smarter the committee has gotten in the last couple of decades.

Take 2006, our first year back in the tournament. Back then "last ten games" used to be a selection criteria and the conference tournament had an outsized effect on seeding and all of it was based on RPI.

You had teams like us as a 12 seed that ended the year #30 in KenPom up against a #5 seed in Syracuse that ended up #50 because they got hot and won the Big East tournament that year.

bobinator said:

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In general I'd argue some of the historical data is more evidence of how bad the seeding process used to be as much as anything else. I don't know that we've given enough credit to how much smarter the committee has gotten in the last couple of decades.

Take 2006, our first year back in the tournament. Back then "last ten games" used to be a selection criteria and the conference tournament had an outsized effect on seeding and all of it was based on RPI.

You had teams like us as a 12 seed that ended the year #30 in KenPom up against a #5 seed in Syracuse that ended up #50 because they got hot and won the Big East tournament that year.

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Yeah, when we drew that Syracuse team in round 1 I said to myself , we are a lock to make round 2

And if not for a really long 3 point shot by lsu that goes in maybe 1 out of every 10 times you heave it up, we would have been in the sweet 16
Our team was very underrated that year, we had really been playing well

That Syracuse team went from bubble team to 5 seed with that run

We have 2 good things going for us should we make the tournament. We have a style that is hard to prep for on a day's turnaround and we have a veteran ball club.

If we're firing on all cylinders come March and we keep improving on defense, there's no telling how far we go with the right matchups. I really don't think it matters what seed we end up with although we're gonna have to knock a high seed if we want to play the 2nd weekend with the current projections.

If we make the tournament, it's just gravy for me at that point. It will certainly cement the idea that Bucky can succeed in a major conference.

I've pretty much never seen an 8/9 draw I liked more than the 11, 11 over 9 in 2024 prob gets us to an E8 matchup with Duke in Dallas

that 11 ended up in the Final 4