Here we go... The first of three games in the next four that are going to either cement our status as a real contender or not.
Their season so far:
- Nobody in college basketball has played a tougher schedule than the Crimson Tide. Everyone they've lost to is in the top 15 in the country with the exception of Texas. (Purdue, Gonzaga, Arizona, Vandy, Tennessee, Florida)
- Most of the teams that beat them did in large part because they killed Alabama on the offensive glass, this is their big weakness, but is it one we can exploit? The only teams that beat them and rebounded fewer than 40% of their misses are Vandy and Florida. Vandy did it by getting fouled a bunch, going 35/50(!!) at the FT line. Florida did it by having an absolutely insane turnover margin of 18-2, leading to a 25-0 edge in points off turnovers. Florida did also rebound close to 40% of their misses. 40% is a high number for us, but we've been close in a few games (above 35% against LSU, Auburn, South Carolina and Georgia.)
- Normally they do not turn the ball over (7th in the country in TO%) but they also do not usually force many turnovers (#356 in defensive turnover %)
- They are FAST, currently 7th in the country in tempo
- They're one of the few teams that shoots even more threes than we do, with a 53.2% three point rate, 3rd in the country.
Some individual notes:
- Alabama is a big team. Only one player on the roster that gets significant minutes that's under 6-3 is Holloway. Wrightsell and Philon are 6-3 and 6-4 and then everyone else is at least 6-5. So bad news, they're going to be long on defense which has been a bit of a problem for Dominguez and Griffin, but Lane and Hill have been really good at breaking down taller defenders off the dribble and turning that into a weakness.
- Everyone knows that a couple of weeks ago they added Charles Bediako to this roster. He's averaged 11 points and 5 boards since coming back and is a major problem around the basket.
- Holloway and Wrightsell are having incredibly shooting seasons, Holloway is currently second in the SEC in 3pt%. I think the key here though is Philon. When Philon has been limited, Alabama has struggled. One or two of these guys is going to go off, you have keep keep it from being all three of them.
On a more vibes-based than fact-based front, I think this is a team that can get frustrated during a game. Against Vandy they couldn't stop fouling, similar against Texas. Normally assist rate and three point rate are fairly correlated but this is a mediocre assist rate team despite being #2 nationally in three point rate.
This is going to be a tall order, but I think the path to victory here isn't that different from our normal game plan. Stay in the fight, annoy the **** out of them even if it leads to some easy baskets, don't just settle for threes, take good ones but also attack the basket, make free throws.
Unlike Florida where it's hard to find a path to victory that doesn't involve phrases like "unusually hot" or "has the game of his life" or something, I think Alabama can be beaten without anything too unusual happening.
Their season so far:
- Nobody in college basketball has played a tougher schedule than the Crimson Tide. Everyone they've lost to is in the top 15 in the country with the exception of Texas. (Purdue, Gonzaga, Arizona, Vandy, Tennessee, Florida)
- Most of the teams that beat them did in large part because they killed Alabama on the offensive glass, this is their big weakness, but is it one we can exploit? The only teams that beat them and rebounded fewer than 40% of their misses are Vandy and Florida. Vandy did it by getting fouled a bunch, going 35/50(!!) at the FT line. Florida did it by having an absolutely insane turnover margin of 18-2, leading to a 25-0 edge in points off turnovers. Florida did also rebound close to 40% of their misses. 40% is a high number for us, but we've been close in a few games (above 35% against LSU, Auburn, South Carolina and Georgia.)
- Normally they do not turn the ball over (7th in the country in TO%) but they also do not usually force many turnovers (#356 in defensive turnover %)
- They are FAST, currently 7th in the country in tempo
- They're one of the few teams that shoots even more threes than we do, with a 53.2% three point rate, 3rd in the country.
Some individual notes:
- Alabama is a big team. Only one player on the roster that gets significant minutes that's under 6-3 is Holloway. Wrightsell and Philon are 6-3 and 6-4 and then everyone else is at least 6-5. So bad news, they're going to be long on defense which has been a bit of a problem for Dominguez and Griffin, but Lane and Hill have been really good at breaking down taller defenders off the dribble and turning that into a weakness.
- Everyone knows that a couple of weeks ago they added Charles Bediako to this roster. He's averaged 11 points and 5 boards since coming back and is a major problem around the basket.
- Holloway and Wrightsell are having incredibly shooting seasons, Holloway is currently second in the SEC in 3pt%. I think the key here though is Philon. When Philon has been limited, Alabama has struggled. One or two of these guys is going to go off, you have keep keep it from being all three of them.
On a more vibes-based than fact-based front, I think this is a team that can get frustrated during a game. Against Vandy they couldn't stop fouling, similar against Texas. Normally assist rate and three point rate are fairly correlated but this is a mediocre assist rate team despite being #2 nationally in three point rate.
This is going to be a tall order, but I think the path to victory here isn't that different from our normal game plan. Stay in the fight, annoy the **** out of them even if it leads to some easy baskets, don't just settle for threes, take good ones but also attack the basket, make free throws.
Unlike Florida where it's hard to find a path to victory that doesn't involve phrases like "unusually hot" or "has the game of his life" or something, I think Alabama can be beaten without anything too unusual happening.
