Or do we need to win a SEC tournament game or two?

Ole Miss
@ OU
@ Arkansas
@ t.u.

Can't count on the SEC tourney to help. Jmo, we need 3 more conference wins for a probable tourney invite . Not a slam dunk but more likely than not. Ole Miss game is a critical game to win. Going to have to beat LSU or OU on the road as well imo and then beat either tu or Kentucky at home. I suppose any combo of three more makes a tourney bid probable but beating ole Miss, OU , and LSU is the least likely to produce a bid.

2-4 will be an NIT scenario imo.

4-2 and we are in the Dance

3-3 is in the dance easily.

It's definitely not "easily." Especially if the three wins are say close wins against Texas, OU and LSU and we get killed by Kentucky and Arkansas and lose to Ole Miss.

The thing we're not going to have unless we beat Arkansas is an elite win, and it's kind of questionable if that one even counts.

One thing that is in our favor is that right now the bubble is looking like it's going to include a few mid-major teams which have not had much luck lately in the bubble sweepstakes.

11 would be all but guaranteed. The thing about 10 is our path to get there makes a huge difference.

There are obviously wild shot-in-the-dark numbers but my current feeling is something like:

11 wins: > 95% chance
10 wins (two of the wins are Arkansas and Ole Miss, the losses are all close): ~75% chance
10 wins (the losses (including Arkansas) are close, one of the wins is Ole Miss): ~50% chance
10 wins (one of the losses is Ole Miss, the wins are all close, we get blown out by Arkansas): ~20% chance

You're more optimistic than me.

I think - 11 wins = 95%; 10 wins <50%

3-3 and we are on the bubble ane may need to win a tourney game or two. 4-2 and i would be really surprised if we aren't in. 5-1 and we are a 7 seed

Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

---

may need to win a tourney game or two

---

The SEC Tournament format is not exactly going to be helpful for the bubble teams this year, especially whoever ends up getting the 8 and 9 seeds. The 9 seed is going to have a game they almost definitely can't lose against the 16 seed and them and the 8 seed will play each other so one of those teams is definitely going home without a helpful win.

This is partly why I've half-joked that a league like the SEC should just wait until the week before the tournament to decide the format.

Inca said:

---

Bottom line is we need at least 10 regular season conference wins. I'd feel more confident with 11. Hopefully that loss to Missouri at home doesn't come back to haunt us.

---

That could be an absolutely brutal loss...