20 years ago the Aggies rolled into March with an outside chance of the NCAA Tournament, a place they hadn't been in two decades. Outside because they lost a non-conference game to Pacific and otherwise didn't play anyone of note in non-con. They had played three games against ranked teams, two of them on the road, and had lost all of them. They had a close call with Oklahoma at Reed, but came up just short. They were sitting at 3-6 in league play after a road loss to Texas. But then they won five straight games, including a win at Nebraska to set the stage for the big opportunity. #6 Texas was coming to town. The place was packed, the team never stopped harassing Texas with their defense, the fans never stopped yelling, and with the game on the line, PJ Tucker never stopped dribbling. The rest is history.



These Longhorns are not those Longhorns, but the stakes are similar. We probably need two more wins to get into the NCAA Tournament. One of them might as well be this one.

Texas A&M Projection: 9 seed
Torvik Tourneycast odds: 97.6% (-.7% from Wednesday)

• On the other thread I talked about the NET WAB and how last year everyone in the top 42 made the tournament. We currently sit at #40 with a WAB of 1.24, and every game we have left is worth about the same amount, somewhere between .4 and .5. Win only one and you're looking at a WAB of about .7 or .8 heading into the SEC Tournament. That's going to be VERY close to the line.

The True Bubble: Teams that could go either way right now and not have much of a case that they got hosed:

Miami (OH) - This is the kind of team that makes doing this a little difficult. If Miami wins the MAC Tournament, that moves the bubble down by a spot. I think it's also hard to guess exactly what the committee is going to do with them if they lose two games (say one in the regular season and one in the conference tournament.)
Indiana
Santa Clara
New Mexico
TCU
----- Bubble Ends Here -----
Ohio state
USC
Cal

Games that matter: (current seed per bracket matrix), team we're for in bold

Friday, February 27

(11) Miami (OH) at Western Michigan - 5 PM - CBSSN

• Miami is currently #32 in NET WAB, so why are we still talking about them? It's because any two losses for them would be absolutely devastating and none of their wins are going to do much. At this point I think it's pretty clear they'd survive one loss, but two? Their current WAB is 2.13 and any loss of theirs is going to be about .9. As long as they get to the MAC Tournament undefeated they should be good to go. But lose one and then lose in the MAC Tournament and it's going to get dicey in a hurry.

Saturday, February 28

(7) NC State at Notre Dame - 11 AM - CW

• NC State's resume sits on shakier ground than I think most people realize. They're probably fine, but they currently sit at #34 in WAB, and a loss here or in their finale against Stanford would mean they suddenly almost have to beat Duke in the midweek.

Fordham at (B - out) VCU - 11:30 AM - USA Network

• VCU is going to have to win out which would include a road win at Dayton to have any kind of chance, and even then I think the bubble is going to have to come back to them quite a bit.

(11) Missouri at Mississippi State - 12 PM - SEC Network

• Missouri probably just needs one of their last three games and I think they make the cut. If they only get one of them it will be a nervous selection sunday, but it's hard to imagine them being left out unless the bubble really starts shrinking.

(6) Louisville at (9) Clemson - 1 PM - ESPN2

• Now Clemson is really a team sitting on thinner ice than people think. I think they need to either win this game or their game at North Carolina next week, along with the closer against Georgia Tech, or they're going to be sweating it.

(5) Vanderbilt at (7) Kentucky - 1 PM - ESPN

• The path is pretty straightforward for Kentucky. They just need to win one more game and they're safe. Problem is those games are this one, at A&M, and Florida. Even if they lose them all I think they're likely in, but that's putting their chances in the hands of some other teams.

(10) UCLA at Minnesota - 1 PM - FS1

• Like Kentucky, it's hard to imagine UCLA missing the field as long as they win one more game, either this one, Nebraska or at USC.

(B - out) San Diego State at (11) New Mexico - 1 PM - CBS

• Loser of this one is likely eliminated from the tournament barring some very unusual stuff happening. They each have one more decent-to-good game to stake their claim, but there's likely just too many high-major teams in the way if they don't also have this one. I think we're for San Diego here because even if they do win this game it's unlikely they jump ahead of us.

South Carolina at (9) Georgia - 2:30 PM - SEC Network

• Georgia probably needs this one and then one other one, whether that's against Alabama or at Mississippi State probably doesn't matter. A loss here and they need both of them.

(10) Texas at (10) Texas A&M - 3 PM - ESPN2 - BUBBLE GAME OF THE CENTURY OF THE DAY

• We currently sit in a slightly better place than Texas by the resume metrics, but a loss here flips that. Both teams probably need any two wins to breathe pretty easy on Selection Sunday. For Texas, that means a loss here and they might need to win at Arkansas. For us, it means we would need to beat Kentucky and then win at LSU. If we only win one of the home games, I think we'd prefer it to be this one. Texas with two head to head losses would likely be locked behind us on the seed list barring them winning at Arkansas next week.

(3) Nebraska at (B-out) USC - 3 PM - Big Ten Network

• Do or die time for USC. Hard to imagine a path in for them if they drop this one that doesn't involve a lot of scoreboard watching. Even with this win they wouldn't exactly be in the clear. They'd still need to win a midweek game at Washington and then probably also the finale against UCLA or they'd be right on the line.

Pittsburgh at (B-out) Cal - 3 PM - ACC Network

• After their win against SMU Cal's WAB is actually higher than Texas' at #43. Problem is they don't have any huge games left, so they're going to need them all. That's this one and then two road games at Georgia Tech and Wake Forest next week. Win them all and they've got a shot.

(9) SMU at Stanford - 5 PM - ACC Network

• SMU also probably needs two more wins to feel good, but they're all going to be roughly toss up games at Stanford, vs Miami and at Florida State. If they drop this one their backs will be against the wall also.

(11) TCU at Kansas State - 5:30 PM - ESPN2

• It's probably going to come down to the wire for TCU unless they win out, which starts here. If they lose this one, they'd need to win at Texas Tech and beat Cincinnati to even really be in the conversation and it would a toss up on whether that's good enough.

Duqeusne at (7) St. Louis - 7 PM - ESPN+

• Just on here because if St. Louis were to start losing games they'd fall really far really fast.

Oregon State at (11) Santa Clara - 7 PM - CBSSN

• Santa Clara is in a little different spot from the other mid-majors on this list because they will not be favored in their conference tournament and this is their last game of the regular season. Drop it and they definitely have to win the WCC tournament, but they might have to do that anyway.

Ole Miss at (10) Auburn - 7:30 PM - SEC Network

• Auburn probably needs to win out to feel any kind of safe. A loss in either of these first two games would be devastating, and but even if they get them both and then lose to Alabama they're likely going to be right on the cut line.

Grand Canyon at (8) Utah State - 9 PM - FS1

• Utah State should be good to go because they'll be heavy favorites in their remaining games and they're already sitting in a nice spot, but they're another one where any loss is a huge blow to their numbers, and two losses would have them back in the bubble mix. Mostly on here because they're a catchable team.

Sunday, March 1

(2) Purdue at Ohio State

• The only way Ohio State can get out of the "true bubble" is this game. If they lose it, they absolutely have to have the next two games at Penn State and against Indiana.

(4) Michigan State at (11) Indiana

• Indiana is in slightly worse shape than Ohio State, so they likely have to win out. The way it's shaping up right now, if neither Ohio State nor Indiana picks up these games, then I think their regular season finale is less of a win-and-in and more of a lose-and-out with the winner still having some work to do.

So good! Thanks for doing this!