Updated Saturday 11:00 AM

Thursday A&M writeup: Not a great trip to the SECT but it's good that A&M took care of business the last week of the regular season to minimize how much that one mattered. Should be right on the 9/10 seed cut line. I'll take another look at the numbers tomorrow to see how A&M compares to UCF and the other teams on the 10 line.

A&M Movement after beating UK: 65 -> 61, After beating LSU 61->55; Bid stolen & Ohio State winning ->57; After losing to OU ->59; Saint Louis moves ahead ->60

Locked this week:
Clemson (3/7)
Texas A&M (3/7)
TCU (3/7)
Utah State (3/7)
Ohio State (3/7)
Iowa (3/11)
UCF (3/11)
Saint Louis (3/13)
Santa Clara (3/14) With minimal bid stealers and others passing them, they are now safe

Eliminated this week:
Oklahoma State (3/7)
Arizona State (3/7)
USC (3/7)
Stanford (3/10) No metrics in the top 45, 4 bad losses, quality/predictive in the 60s, some bubble watches will keep them around, not here.
Cincinnati (3/11)
Cal (3/11)
Boise State (3/11)
Virginia Tech (3/12) With at least 1 bid stolen this week, they no longer have a viable path
New Mexico (3/14) Any at large required them to beat SDSU and they failed



1 Bid leagues (exactly 1 bid projected regardless of conference tournament. Projected champion/auto bid, their seed and date of championship game listed. Bold = auto bid secured

1. Atlantic Sun (Queens) 15 or 16 seed
2. America East (UMBC vs. Vermont) 15 /16 seed, 3/14
3. Big Sky (Idaho) 15 seed 3/11
4. Big South (High Point) 12 or 13 seed
5. Big West (Hawaii) 13/14 seed 3/14
6. Conference USA (Louisiana Tech vs. Kennesaw State) 12/13 seed 3/14
7. Coastal (Hofstra) 13 seed
8. Horizon (Wright State) 14/15 seed
9. Ivy League (Yale) 12 seed, 3/15
10. Metro Atlantic (Siena) 16 seed, possible play in game
11. Mid-Eastern (Howard) 3/14 16 seed possible play in game
12. Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa) 12 or 13 seed
13. Northeast (Long Island) 16 seed, possible play in game
14. Ohio Valley (Tennessee State) 15 seed
15. Patriot (Lehigh) 16 seed play in game
16. SWAC (Prairie View Vs. Southern 3/14 16 seed, play in game
17. Southern (Furman) 14/15 seed
18. Southland (McNeese State) 12/13 seed
19. Summit League (North Dakota St.) 13 or 14 seed
20. Sun Belt (Troy) 14 seed
21. WAC (Utah Valley) 13 seed 3/14

21 bids gone with 47 to go.

But wait with Miami of Ohio losing on Thursday the MAC will officially have an auto bid coming from a team that doesn't have an at large profile to get in. We count their auto bid placeholder bid here. Additionally, there is one more bid (American conference) that doesn't have an at large team in the field but is still theoretically possible to be a 2 bid league. Given whats going around the bubble it is still conceivable that South Florida could lose in their tournament and get an at large bid, but for now we will count the auto bid spot.

22. MAC (Akron vs. Toledo) 12 seed 3/14 Final
23. American (South Florida) 12 seed 3/14 Final


Next the locks, in seed order, with the high major conference auto bid noted as a placeholder.

Possible Bid Thieves to watch that could shrink the bubble
MAC: CONFIRMED WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST 1 BID STOLEN FROM THIS GROUP: (already accounted for with placeholder #22)
Kent State, Toledo, Akron, UMass

SEC: Ole Miss…Semis, must win 2 more
Mountain West: San Diego State….Finals, must win 1 more
A10: Dayton, St. Joseph's…Semis, must win 2 more
American: Charlotte, Tulsa, Wichita St….Semis (South Florida who would be a longshot to make it a 2 bid league)

No Bid thief in the Big 12, Big 10, Big East, ACC or WCC. Theoretical Max 5 bids stolen (although if there are this many than South Florida would have no chance to make the American a 2 bid league).

Locks

1 seeds
24. Duke (ACC) probable #1 overall seed. 1 seed lock
25. Michigan (Big 10) shot at #1 overall seed. 1 seed lock
26. Arizona (Big 12) 1 seed lock
27. Florida (SEC)

2 seeds
28. Houston
29. UConn (Big East)
30. Iowa State
31. Purdue

3 seeds
32. Michigan State
33. Illinois
34. Nebraska
35. Gonzaga (West Coast)

4 seeds
36. Virginia
37. Alabama
38. Vanderbilt
39. Kansas

5 seeds
40. Arkansas
41. Texas Tech
42. St. John's
43. Wisconsin

6 seeds
44. Tennessee
45. Louisville
46. North Carolina
47. BYU

7 seeds

48. Kentucky
49. Miami
50. UCLA
51. Clemson


8 seeds

52. St. Mary's
53. Ohio State (Waiting on Selection Sunday)
54. Villanova (Waiting on Selection Sunday)
55. Utah State (Mountain West) (Sat MWC Final vs. SDSU)


9 seeds

56. Georgia (Waiting on Selection Sunday)

----A&M ceiling-----

57. Saint Louis (Atlantic 10) After losing to George Mason by 31 in the regular season finale and being down 21 to George Washington in the quarterfinals the alarm bells were going full blast. They recover though to advance to the semis and limit their horrible loss scenarios. I might be a bit nervous if St. Bonaventure advances and then beats Saint Louis but going into the day before Selection Sunday as a 9 I just don't have faith that the committee would move them all the way out. (Sat A10 Semis Dayton)

58. TCU 34.7 resume avg. 46.3 Quality. Certainly in but what will matter more to this committee in terms of seeding? (Waiting on Selection Sunday)

59. Iowa Resume Avg 43. Quality 27 . 2 quad 3 losses. Just 3-9 vs quad 1. (Waiting on Selection Sunday)


10 seeds


60. Texas A&M Subpar showing in the SECT but still solidly in with metrics across the board that suggest a 9 or 10 seed incoming. 42 resume avg (40 WAB), 37 quality avg. (Waiting on Selection Sunday)

61. Santa Clara Almost certainly did enough in the WCC tournament to be safely in by avoiding a bad loss, and then beating St. Mary's (and a competitive loss vs. Gonzaga). There is a possibility they fall back to the last 4 in. Not much on the resume other than 2 wins over St. Mary's so I don't see their ceiling really being any higher than this. (Waiting on Selection Sunday)

62. UCF Resume Avg 34, quality 56.3 Resume means they are solidly a lock but the quality likely keeps them as a 10 seed ceiling. (Waiting on Selection Sunday)


-------The Bubble. 6 at large spots left for 11 teams----------

63. NC State - lost 6 of 7 to regular season. Avoided the bad loss in the 2nd round but beating Pitt does nothing for the resume and they couldn't get the win over Virginia which would have locked them in. Resume metrics hanging around 45, quality metrics in the 30s help plus 5 quad 1 wins and .500 against Q1 + Q2. Potentially in Dayton but if the bubble contracts more it could get just a little dicey. (Waiting on Selection Sunday)

11 seeds

64. Miami (OH) Well this exact scenario is why I was hesitant to make their lock status official. It is still really hard to imagine a team that went 31-0 in the regular season not getting in, especially with how bad the bubble is but losing to the #8 seed and outside the NET 200 UMass combined with predictive numbers now in the 90s at least warrants a conversation. Non conf SOS was #354. That said, even after that loss, the WAB is in the 30s and they should still be in good shape. (Waiting on Selection Sunday)

-----Floor for A&M ----reasonable minds could convince themselves this is where A&M currently sits based on the metrics-----

65. VCU It may not sound like much but they picked up a huge (quad 1) win at Dayton, which was just their 2nd quad 1 of the season. For a resume with no bad losses, and neutral court wins in the non-conference against decent but not great Virginia Tech and South Florida, just picking up a 2nd quad 1 win might be enough. Resume feels in pretty safe territory for now but a loss in the semis would be damaging enough that they would be sweating on Selection Sunday. (Saturday A10 Semis Saint Joseph's)

66. Missouri - Their poor predictive metrics likely will hurt their seeding, but the resume numbers are solid enough that they should be in the field. (Waiting on Selection Sunday)

-------Sizable gap to the teams that would actually be in danger if today was selection Sunday----

67. Texas Lost 5 of their last 6 to wind up in dangerous territory sitting and watching the rest of the bubble. They do have 7 quad 1 wins (6-0 vs quad 1B). Outside of the quad1B its less than impressive including 1-9 vs quad 1A, 1-4 vs quad 2 and a quad 3 loss. What felt like a bubbly resume that was in danger of going to Dayton now feels like a Dayton as the best case scenario with the metrics slipping from the low 40s to mid 40s and right at the cut line. WAB is 45. (Waiting on Selection Sunday)

68. SMU Lost 4 in a row to end the regular season and an early exit in the ACC tournament, getting by Syracuse and losing to Louisville. Not a bad loss like some of their ACC counterparts but they fail on the chance to improve their standing and are now in the very precarious position of needing to avoid bid thieves. WAB of 48, just 9-13 against Q1 and Q2. As of now I feel confident they are in but that could change depending on other results the next 48 hours. (Waiting on Selection Sunday)

--------Bubble Bursts Here-------------------

69. San Diego State WAB has moved up to 45 and they are solidly in the conversation after beating New Mexico in the semis. Likely still need to win tonight which would give them the auto bid and push either SMU or Texas out of the field (and put Miami of Ohio in Dayton) (Sat MWC Final Utah State)

70. Auburn Auburn took their 16th loss on Saturday but what may have hurt more is Miami (OH) losing and moving the bubble cut line up by 1. They are likely still ahead of all the teams behind them but likely lose out on the comparison vs. Texas and SMU. (Waiting on Selection Sunday)

-------If today was Selection Sunday I would be shocked if anyone below this line got in ------

71. Oklahoma Frantic end to the season to try to revive a mid 70s WAB and get in contention will fall just short. This would have been an interesting test case on how much if any the committee pays attention to conference tournaments but with the loss to Arkansas there just isn't enough here to put them in the field. On the plus side they have 5 quad 1 wins, 0 bad losses. Resume avg 52, Quality 40.7. (Waiting on Selection Sunday)

72. Indiana Lost 6 of 7 down the stretch including an 0-1 trip to the conference tournament and losing to Northwestern. 3-11 vs. Quad 1, just 6-14 vs 1/2. They also didn't really do that much out of conference though and have a sub .500 conference record. Nearly impossible to imagine a scenario where Indiana gets in. No metrics in the top 45. (Waiting on Selection Sunday)

73. South Florida (possible AAC auto bid) - They did beat Utah State in the non conference but 3 quad 3 losses in conference probably mean they need the auto bid to get in. Based on the AAC format they only need to win 2 games to get the auto bid. Good for the bulls but it also limits their ability to rack up wins needed to get an at large. (Sat AAC Semis Charlotte)


What to watch / Who to root for - I am not going to even try to say who to root for here. Most of you are rooting for A&M to slide down and stay a ~10 seed, so a rooting guide on how to stay a 9 doesn't make much sense. Also normally this section would guide who a typical bubble team would want to win but many of you may be rooting for a certain bubble team to be passed.



Saturday
10:00 ESPN2 America East Final UMBC vs. Vermont No bubble impact or impact to A&M

12:00 ESPN2 MEAC Final No bubble impact or impact to A&M

12:00 CBSSN A10 Semi Saint Louis vs. Dayton We probably want Saint Louis to win this to keep them ahead of A&M. Dayton winning opens up the door to a bid being stolen.

2:00 ESPN2 American Semis Charlotte vs. South Florida South Florida is the fringiest of bubble contenders

2:30 CBSSN A10 Semi VCU vs. Saint Joeseph's a VCU win all but locks them into the field.

2:30 ESPN SEC Semi Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Ole Miss is the last bid stealer standing for the P4 conferences

5:00 CBS Mountain West Final Utah State vs. San Diego State Utah State is a lock, SDSU likely has to win to get in (small chance for an at large). If Utah State does not win the MWC will be a 2 bid league and the bubble cut line shifts up 1.

5:00 ESPN Big 12 Final Houston vs. Arizona- No bubble impact or impact to A&M

5:30 Fox Big East Final UConn vs. St. John's- No bubble impact or impact to A&M

6:30 ESPNU SWAC Final Prairie View vs. Southern No bubble impact or impact to A&M

7:00 ESPN2 MAC Final Toledo vs. Akron No bubble impact or impact to A&M

7:30 CBSSN CUSA Final Louisiana Tech vs. Kennesaw State No bubble impact or impact to A&M

7:30 ESPN ACC Final Virginia vs. Duke - No bubble impact or impact to A&M

9:00 ESPN2 Big West Final UC Irvine vs. Hawaii No bubble impact or impact to A&M

11:00 ESPN2 WAC Final Utah Valley vs. CA Baptist- No bubble impact or impact to A&M

This is amazing. Really hoping we don't get stuck going to Dayton if we do sneak in there somehow.

I am sure I made a mistake somewhere and I'll do a few formatting tweaks to it tomorrow but this should be 99% accurate for an initial run. I will update it nightly at the conclusion of the relevant games.

I do not care where we go - just get into the damn tournament!

BTHO UK!!

Thanks for doing this!

Amazing work and much appreciated as it is every year!

BTHO Kentucky!!!

The gifts I open here on your Bubble Watch are better than on my birthday. Well done as always! Thank you!

Colleyville, want to see if you agree with this, one thing that's been fairly consistent in recent years is that these dudes are going to choose the laziest path when it comes to the who's in and out of the field so my theory is they're just going to go ahead and slot Miami of Ohio in as a non-play-in 11 seed whether they win the MAC or not because that game is late Saturday night.

No that's not how it works. It just confirms that you were at fault for the losses.

bobinator said:

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Colleyville, want to see if you agree with this, one thing that's been fairly consistent in recent years is that these dudes are going to choose the laziest path when it comes to the who's in and out of the field so my theory is they're just going to go ahead and slot Miami of Ohio in as a non-play-in 11 seed whether they win the MAC or not because that game is late Saturday night.

---

This is a completely reasonable take that they will be fully done with selection and seeding by the time they play. The only hope i have that "every game counts" is that if they lose the MAC becomes (i would think) a 2 bid league which is going to mess with their bracket anyways so they may have a if Miami wins bracket and if they lose bracket they build. In recent years however you would see the CUSA team for example win, and by the numbers should be a 14 seed, but be given the 12 seed because that's what they had Memphis in as and it was easier to just sub in UAB than redo everything. So...given that history ya...laziest approach possible is the most likely scenario.

bobinator said:

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No that's not how it works. It just confirms that you were at fault for the losses.

---

True. Ok i admit it, it actually was my fault, but in fairness i get more clicks when A&M is near the bubble so was secretly hoping we would make it interesting.

If Cincinnati makes it I'll have to rethink my whole approach next year. I think they're the poster child this year of the "surely not…. but maybe?" teams.