***Championship Week - Tuesday***

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bobinator
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10:14a, 3/10/26
AG
Daily thread narrowly edged out mega thread, so here we go.

What's changed: Not much, Santa Clara's win over St. Mary's should lock Santa Clara into the field if they weren't already, and puts St. Mary's back to potentially within striking distance of A&M and the other 8/9 seed teams.

Punching Tickets

Mercyhurst vs Long Island - 6 PM - ESPN2 - NEC Final (Good catch by Colleyville that Mercyhurst is ineligible so Long Island is already in)

Detroit Mercy vs Wright State - 6 PM - ESPN - Horizon League Final

Santa Clara vs Gonzaga - 8 PM - ESPN - WCC Final
  • One last time, for all time. Gonzaga's last WCC Tournament game. Of note here is that if Santa Clara wins, an auto-bid cannot play in the First Four. They're probably clear of the First Four anyway at this point, but just something to note there.
Siena vs Merrimack - 8 PM - ESPN2 - MAAC Final

Bubble Action

Pitt vs Stanford - 1 PM - ACC Network - ACC 1st Round
  • The committee should have the authority to just cut off the at-large bids at 33 if they don't think there's 37 worthy teams. We're really scraping to find the last couple of at larges this year and while I think Stanford making this tournament would be a borderline affront to the game of basketball, I will defer to Colleyville that they have a chance if they can win a few more.
Utah vs Cincinnati - 2 PM - ESPN+ - Big 12 1st Round
  • I mean who knows, like I said, they have to find 68 teams somewhere, maybe Cincy has a chance too if they keep winning.
Syracuse vs SMU - 3:30 PM - ACC Network - ACC 1st Round
  • A loss here is probably the end of the road for SMU. Their recent form without BJ Edwards has been pretty horrifying. Edwards is listed as doubtful for this game, and if they lose again without him on the court, and with his status uncertain for the tournament, I think the committee likely cans SMU.
Wake Forest vs Virginia Tech - 6 PM - ACC Network - ACC 1st Round
  • Not a win-and-in but a win-and-keep-going for Virginia Tech here. They probably need to win at least one more after this.
Seed Games

Kansas State vs BYU - 6 PM - ESPN+ - Big 12 1st Round -
  • BYU's seed is going to be a total wildcard. Their results are all over the place without Saunders, so who knows where the committee is going to put them, especially if they lose early in this tournament.
Lone Star State

Alcorn State vs Prairie View A&M - 1 PM - ESPN+ - SWAC 2nd Round

Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs Stephen F. Austin - 6 PM - ESPNU - Southland Semifinal

UT Rio Grande Valley vs McNeese - 8:30 PM - ESPN+ - Southland Semifinal
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bobinator
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10:33a, 3/10/26
AG
BTW for anyone trying to make travel plans, this is a tough year being on the 7-10 lines because almost everywhere is in play, but I do think there's one site we can likely rule out, and that's Portland.

It's hard to picture any scenario where Portland doesn't get two 5/12|4/13 pods.

Otherwise basically everywhere else is in play.
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ColleyvilleAg06
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11:26a, 3/10/26
AG
One note on the Long Island game is that Mercyhurst is ineligible for the NCAA tournament and so Long Island has already punched their ticket regardless of how that game goes.

For the bubble games, my general sense with all the teams that feel like fringe (Auburn, Oklahoma, Cal, Indiana, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, even SMU) is that they probably need 3 wins. None of them would be at large resumes in most years, but with a very weak bubble 2 of them are in right now. Somewhere there will be bid stealers so those 2 spots will go away and/or some of these teams will likely win 3 games somewhere.

So to stay in contention they all have to beat their bottom of P4 opponent to avoid a bad loss, beat a middle of the conference team to get a ~+0.6 added to WAB and get a chance and take it by knocking off a top of the conference double bye team. I think 1 or 2 will do it and those 1 or 2 will be our bubble contenders vs. a team near the last 4 in that goes 0-1 in the tournaments after a bid or 2 gets stolen.
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bobinator
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 12:13p, 3/10/26
AG
Good catch.

We need a conference like the Mountain West to truly game the bubble by changing the format of their conference tournament two weeks before it happens.

The 2026 Mountain West Tournament should be a three-stage tournament.

First, Air Force, SJSU, Fresno, Wyoming, UNLV, Colorado State, Boise and Nevada play a regular 8 team single elimination tournament. The winner of the tournament enters stage two.

In stage two, that team, Grand Canyon, New Mexico, and San Diego State play a round robin.

Whoever comes out with the best record then plays Utah State, who got a bye all the way to the championship game.
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EliteZags
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1:18p, 3/10/26
AG
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ColleyvilleAg06
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In reply to bobinator • 1:21p, 3/10/26
AG
bobinator said:
Good catch.

We need a conference like the Mountain West to truly game the bubble by changing the format of their conference tournament two weeks before it happens.

The 2026 Mountain West Tournament should be a three-stage tournament.

First, Air Force, SJSU, Fresno, Wyoming, UNLV, Colorado State, Boise and Nevada play a regular 8 team single elimination tournament. The winner of the tournament enters stage two.

In stage two, that team, Grand Canyon, New Mexico, and San Diego State play a round robin.

Whoever comes out with the best record then plays Utah State, who got a bye all the way to the championship game.

I mean if the goal of a conference like the MWC or AAC or A10 is to maximize number of teams in the tournament they should really game it by having a reverse bracket. 1v2, 3v4, 5v6 in the 1st round, no bad losses, knocks out a couple teams that may be in good shape for the NCAAT, and then have the bottom teams get a double bye making it far more likely to get a bid stealer.

Of course it would be completely ridiculous and everyone would be right to call it out for how unfair it was and go against everything you would want in terms of spirit of competition in the regular season...but it would get the conference more money and exposure and be worth it for a year to show how backwards alot of this stuff is.
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TombstoneTex
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 1:28p, 3/10/26
AG
ColleyvilleAg06 said:
bobinator said:
Good catch.

We need a conference like the Mountain West to truly game the bubble by changing the format of their conference tournament two weeks before it happens.

The 2026 Mountain West Tournament should be a three-stage tournament.

First, Air Force, SJSU, Fresno, Wyoming, UNLV, Colorado State, Boise and Nevada play a regular 8 team single elimination tournament. The winner of the tournament enters stage two.

In stage two, that team, Grand Canyon, New Mexico, and San Diego State play a round robin.

Whoever comes out with the best record then plays Utah State, who got a bye all the way to the championship game.

I mean if the goal of a conference like the MWC or AAC or A10 is to maximize number of teams in the tournament they should really game it by having a reverse bracket. 1v2, 3v4, 5v6 in the 1st round, no bad losses, knocks out a couple teams that may be in good shape for the NCAAT, and then have the bottom teams get a double bye making it far more likely to get a bid stealer.

Of course it would be completely ridiculous and everyone would be right to call it out for how unfair it was and go against everything you would want in terms of spirit of competition in the regular season...but it would get the conference more money and exposure and be worth it for a year to show how backwards alot of this stuff is.

I would tune in for this. Sounds like a bunch of competitive games!
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bobinator
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 1:34p, 3/10/26
AG
Well yeah that's the extreme version. I was just trying to game out a way for the Mountain West to inflate the metrics of at least one team to get them an at-large bid even if they lose the championship game.

You've got New Mexico, Boise and SDSU all hanging around the low 50's in WAB. They're not THAT far away. We just need to have them all play each other and we can float one of them.

But that's the point, we need one of these leagues to go "our conference championship format is TBD based on what it looks like we need."

A-10? Dayton gets a bye to the championship game where they play the winner of St. Louis and VCU.

The Big East would be more like yours. UCONN plays St. John's on Day 1. The winner advances to play Villanova on Day 2. and then that winner joins a regular tournament with the rest of the teams.
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bobinator
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1:44p, 3/10/26
AG
Not exactly inspiring stuff from Stanford there to end the half. Pitt ended the half on an 8-0 run to lead 31-23 at the break.
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PJYoung
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In reply to bobinator • 1:50p, 3/10/26
AG
bobinator said:
Not exactly inspiring stuff from Stanford there to end the half. Pitt ended the half on an 8-0 run to lead 31-23 at the break.

That's not the Stanford basketball team I know.
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bobinator
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In reply to PJYoung • 1:56p, 3/10/26
AG
NIL and the portal have changed college basketball but it will never change the magic and tradition of this time of the year when Pittsburgh and Stanford are fighting for their tournament lives in the 10/15 game of the Atlantic Coast Conference.
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EliteZags
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2:02p, 3/10/26
AG
don't bother competing for the NCAAT if ur gonna put up hs girls bball scores
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bobinator
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2:14p, 3/10/26
AG
Hey they decided to play basketball this half. Stanford with the lead!
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ColleyvilleAg06
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2:23p, 3/10/26
AG
This is more NIT bubble relevant but Arizona State ends the Baylor season.
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NyAggie
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2:25p, 3/10/26
AG
I like the conference tournaments and the bid stealers

Gives every team a chance, no matter how small of one, to make it into the field

Watching all these small conference teams battle it to see who makes it into is just as much fun, to me anyway, as the actual first two rounds of the tournament

What I don't really care for are the play-in games

If you're in you're in, you shouldn't have to play an extra game

But I guess the benefit of those games is it takes a little more out of the committee's hands determining those last few spots, and at that point in the selection you are just lucky to be included so play an extra game
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bobinator
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 2:51p, 3/10/26
AG
What a strange season in Waco. Wonder what the whole story is there.
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GCP12
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2:55p, 3/10/26
AG
Edit: Will post in coaching changes thread
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PJYoung
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2:56p, 3/10/26
AG
That was great

(Pitt's last possession of the game)
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bobinator
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2:57p, 3/10/26
AG
I don't know how bad Pitt would have had to get fouled to actually get a call but they hit a shot to take the lead with .4 on the clock and we might be able to eliminate Stanford.
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bobinator
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2:57p, 3/10/26
AG
Surprised the ACC officials didn't reset the clock to 4.5 seconds for Stanford here.
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Topher17
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3:00p, 3/10/26
AG
The bubble just continues to get worse and worse lol

What a disaster!
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PJYoung
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In reply to bobinator • 3:00p, 3/10/26
AG
bobinator said:
Surprised the ACC officials didn't reset the clock to 4.5 seconds for Stanford here.

"We said 4 or 5 tenths - never mind it's fine."
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PJYoung
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3:03p, 3/10/26
AG
This is ending exactly how Stanford's season should end.

Taking forever to figure out how many tenths it took for the blocked in bounds pass to hit the ground.

And.... it's over.. LOLOL
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Topher17
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3:05p, 3/10/26
AG
I for one am shocked a mediocre Stanford team, who lost to a number of bad teams, lost to a really bad team.
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bobinator
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3:05p, 3/10/26
AG
Hell yeah, let's end Stanford's bubble hopes at the monitor with a stopwatch.

COLLEGE BASKETBALL 2026 FEEL THE EXCITEMENT

Colleyville, PLEASE TAKE GREAT JOY AND MERCIFULLY END OUR NATIONAL NIGHTMARE OF AN NCAA TOURNAMENT TEAM THAT LOST A HOME GAME TO SEATTLE
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Belton Ag
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3:08p, 3/10/26
AG
How stupid.

Part of me hopes this exact scenario happens in the championship game so that maybe we can go forward without these endless timing reviews.

And I realize we benefitted from one earlier this year.
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bobinator
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In reply to Belton Ag • 3:27p, 3/10/26
AG
I was making fun of it but this one I think was a good one. There's no way that ball went from hand to floor in .1 of a second and .6 is enough to get off a shot. That's a pretty important distinction there and a clear clock error.

Now there are a lot of them where I think we're trying to hold clock operators to some kind of superhuman standard that people need to just live with.
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Belton Ag
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In reply to bobinator • 3:34p, 3/10/26
AG
It's not that I think they got it wrong. It's just the absurdity of timing reviews and reviews in general. Especially to end a game.
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bobinator
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In reply to Belton Ag • 3:39p, 3/10/26
AG
Well yeah that's what I'm saying. I think there's a difference in something that's obviously a clock operation error like this one and a lot of the ones they review where it's like "well the clock started .1 after they touched the ball so the game should have been over" or whatever like the clock operator is supposed to be able to have instantaneous reaction time.

I agree they review too many of these for sure, I just think that particular one was worth reviewing. Sucks to lose a game at the monitor but it would have sucked worse for Pitt to lose on a full court heave when there obviously shouldn't have been enough time left for it.
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GCP12
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3:39p, 3/10/26
AG
After betting Stanford, I am going to attempt betting SMU. Surely one of these bubble teams can beat a terrible team with no chance of an at-large.
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ColleyvilleAg06
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3:46p, 3/10/26
AG
Yes, Stanford has been eliminated from the BW which will be updated later tonight. I didnt really understand how some had them in their field going into today, they were in the group for me that had to win 3 games to play their way in.

No metrics in the top 45, 4 bad losses, quality/predictive in the 60s.

I am sure there might be a few bracketoligists that keep them around in their next four out group but they have a 0.0% chance.
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bobinator
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3:52p, 3/10/26
AG
I can't believe they somehow beat North Carolina and Louisville.

This is the stuff of dreams from Lunardi, per the break in during this ACC game he's now flipped Indiana and Auburn from last night. Why? Who can say. Bad vibes.
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CapCityAg89
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4:43p, 3/10/26
AG
Is it ok to admit I like watching Solo play and miss him in maroon and white. Aside from the fact he can't hit a 3, he would be a difference maker for us.
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ColleyvilleAg06
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In reply to bobinator • 4:44p, 3/10/26
AG
bobinator said:
I can't believe they somehow beat North Carolina and Louisville.

This is the stuff of dreams from Lunardi, per the break in during this ACC game he's now flipped Indiana and Auburn from last night. Why? Who can say. Bad vibes.


Classic Lunardi this time of year…maybe he realized that an at large Auburn will have 16 losses which has never happened. That said I have them likely in with 3 wins bc their metrics are that good but certainly no reason to make a switch yesterday
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LouisvilleAg
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5:17p, 3/10/26
AG
While we may not get to 33 at larges, we may get to 34 and ultimately, i think there are 3 bid stealers. I think no. 1 happens tonight. Santa Clara beats Gonzaga!
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