We're in the endgame now.
Some of us liked Buzz, some of us hated him, but we can all agree it's a little sweet to be sitting here on March 12 and Maryland's season is already over and we've yet to hit the floor at the SEC Tournament.
What's changed: The bubble continues to be one of the most committed suicide cults in recent memory. Of the 8-ish so teams around the bubble, the only ones that seem like they want to make the NCAA Tournament are the SEC's. I act like I know a lot about this stuff so it's important to admit when I'm wrong, and I was semi laughing at the announcers acting like Oklahoma still had a chance when we played them a few weeks ago and for Colleyville including them on his initial bubble watch. Well, here we are. In fact, had Oklahoma gotten that win, I think they'd already be considered either the first team out or the last team in. They didn't, so they still have work to do, but if we want to advance in the SEC Tournament we're going to have to match the fight of a desperate team who has everything on the line.
(projected seed is a combination of BracketMatrix and ColleyvilleAg), team we're for in bold,
(Quirk of the schedule, no conference championship games today)
**New category alert: Bid theft watch**
UMass vs (11) Miami (OH) - 10 AM - ESPN+ - MAC Quarterfinal
Georgetown vs (7) Villanova - 8:30 PM - FS1 - Big East Quarterfinal
Bubble action:
(10) NC State vs (4) Virginia - 11 AM - ESPN2 - ACC Quarterfinal
(9) Iowa vs (9) Ohio State - 11 AM - Big Ten Network - Big Ten Third Round
(7) Kentucky vs (11) -Missouri - 11:30 AM - ESPN - SEC Second Round
(6) Louisville vs (7) Miami - 1:30 PM - ESPN2 - ACC Quarterfinal
(B?) Florida State vs (1) Duke - 6 PM - ESPN - ACC Quarterfinal
Ole Miss vs (8) Georgia - 6 PM - SEC Network - SEC Second Round
Rutgers vs (8) UCLA - 8 PM - Big Ten Network - Big Ten Third Round
(9) TCU vs (4) Kansas - 8:30 PM - ESPN2 - Big 12 Quarterfinal
(8) Clemson vs (5) North Carolina - 8:30 PM - ESPN - ACC Quarterfinal
Where the prairie sky, is wide and high:
Alabama A&M vs Texas Southern - 1 PM - ESPN+ - SWAC Quarterfinal
Southern Utah vs UT Arlington - 8 PM - ESPN+ - WAC Quarterfinal
Florida Atlantic vs North Texas - 8:30 PM - ESPNU - American Second Round
Abilene Christian vs Utah Tech - 10:30 PM - ESPN+ - WAC Quarterfinal
Some of us liked Buzz, some of us hated him, but we can all agree it's a little sweet to be sitting here on March 12 and Maryland's season is already over and we've yet to hit the floor at the SEC Tournament.
What's changed: The bubble continues to be one of the most committed suicide cults in recent memory. Of the 8-ish so teams around the bubble, the only ones that seem like they want to make the NCAA Tournament are the SEC's. I act like I know a lot about this stuff so it's important to admit when I'm wrong, and I was semi laughing at the announcers acting like Oklahoma still had a chance when we played them a few weeks ago and for Colleyville including them on his initial bubble watch. Well, here we are. In fact, had Oklahoma gotten that win, I think they'd already be considered either the first team out or the last team in. They didn't, so they still have work to do, but if we want to advance in the SEC Tournament we're going to have to match the fight of a desperate team who has everything on the line.
(projected seed is a combination of BracketMatrix and ColleyvilleAg), team we're for in bold,
(Quirk of the schedule, no conference championship games today)
**New category alert: Bid theft watch**
UMass vs (11) Miami (OH) - 10 AM - ESPN+ - MAC Quarterfinal
- Miami is going to make the tournament barring an unprecedented big theft run over the next couple of days, but a loss here ensures we stay ahead of them and it would nudge Texas closer to the cut line.
- Anyone but St. John's, Nova, or UConn winning the Big East would shrink the bubble.
- Anyone but Utah State winning the Mountain West MIGHT shrink the bubble (more on that with New Mexico below)
Georgetown vs (7) Villanova - 8:30 PM - FS1 - Big East Quarterfinal
Bubble action:
(10) NC State vs (4) Virginia - 11 AM - ESPN2 - ACC Quarterfinal
- If you're someone who trusts the committee and wants to thread the needle on getting a 10 seed or one of the 11s with a bye, then you're maybe for NC State here to push them ahead of us on the seed list. I don't trust them, we want to be as far up the list as possible.
- Still not quite win-and-in for Auburn for me but gets prettty close.
- I dunno, maybe?
- Recent form is not supposed to matter, but it can sometimes help or a hurt a bit. Oklahoma is becoming an easier narrative to get behind, and if they can win this one, they've got a real chance.
- I'm not sure what kind of chance New Mexico has, but they definitely can't lose this game. We're going to have to see the updated metrics on teams like Auburn and Oklahoma to know if they're going to have a shot by just beating San Diego St. tomorrow or if they're going to have to win the whole thing.
(9) Iowa vs (9) Ohio State - 11 AM - Big Ten Network - Big Ten Third Round
- Meteor game, the winner of this game is ahead of us for now.
(7) Kentucky vs (11) -Missouri - 11:30 AM - ESPN - SEC Second Round
- Similar to NC State/Virginia, if you trust the committee, then you might want Mizzou to pass us here. But I'd rather Missouri just stay behind us on the seed list.
(6) Louisville vs (7) Miami - 1:30 PM - ESPN2 - ACC Quarterfinal
- Theoretically possible we can pass Miami.
- Another choose your own adventure game.
(B?) Florida State vs (1) Duke - 6 PM - ESPN - ACC Quarterfinal
- Let's say FSU wins this game and Auburn, Oklahoma and New Mexico all lose today. By the metrics, Florida State should have no chance. But could this room full of mere mortals decide to reward a team that is actually winning games? If they get on TV on Sunday and say "we looked at Florida State's entire body of work and they challenged themselves in non-conference a little bit despite having a first year coach, which a bunch of other bubble teams did not do. As a result they took some lumps early in the season but they're winners of 10 of their last 12 in the regular season, which includes wins over other bubble teams like Cal (twice), Stanford, Virginia Tech and SMU and then high end wins over Clemson and Duke. So we think this team belongs in the field. Would anyone really be mad about that logic? That said they feel a little bit like us in 2022 where even if they win this game it's going to be too little too late.
Ole Miss vs (8) Georgia - 6 PM - SEC Network - SEC Second Round
Rutgers vs (8) UCLA - 8 PM - Big Ten Network - Big Ten Third Round
(9) TCU vs (4) Kansas - 8:30 PM - ESPN2 - Big 12 Quarterfinal
(8) Clemson vs (5) North Carolina - 8:30 PM - ESPN - ACC Quarterfinal
Where the prairie sky, is wide and high:
Alabama A&M vs Texas Southern - 1 PM - ESPN+ - SWAC Quarterfinal
Southern Utah vs UT Arlington - 8 PM - ESPN+ - WAC Quarterfinal
Florida Atlantic vs North Texas - 8:30 PM - ESPNU - American Second Round
Abilene Christian vs Utah Tech - 10:30 PM - ESPN+ - WAC Quarterfinal
