I've been sucked into the conference realignment drama for a couple years now, but I think the **** is about to hit the fan on the East Coast. Maryland's departure as a founding member of the ACC is extremely significant because it proves that revenue, TV markets, and brand recognition have officially trumped tradition, rivalries, and regional ties. When the dust settles, I believe we will have four BCS super-conferences, and the ACC will not be one of them. The Big Ten will be the most powerful and wealthy conference in the nation, the Big 12 will be the most prestigious in football, and the SEC will be the most homogenous and stable conference. As much as I love our new home, our conference simply has less to gain than the other two unless it decided to expand more into the northeast and midwest.
Jim Delaney set the wheels in motion two years ago by grabbing Nebraska, which came as a surprise to some, but not to those who remember the glory days under Tom Osborne. We knew Nebraska was unhappy playing second fiddle to Big Texas influence (and unequal profits) and had long coveted a home in the Big Ten. Colorado’s subsequent jump to the Pac-12 wasn’t a shocker, either; regionally, it just made sense. The real game-changer came when Larry Scott almost convinced 4 Big XII schools to join the Pac-12 (with Colorado). It was a sign that a new dawn in college sports was upon us—when a conference’s success would be dictated by network deals and television sets, not competition. Instead of following the crowd, however, A&M sought independence in the SEC, bringing Mizzou with them, and we all thought the Big 12 was doomed.
That’s when Mike Slive made one of the most brilliant moves in the game of conference realignment: he signed a bowl deal with the Big 12 giving it long-term legitimacy as a major BCS conference. Consequently, I think it will lead to the demise of the ACC, allowing the SEC to expand into North Carolina and Virginia. Think about it, the Big 12 has no viewer markets of interest to the SEC (except, perhaps, Oklahoma City) so saving it would not have hindered SEC interests. The ACC, on the other hand, is in direct competition with the SEC, yet as long as it remained a viable BCS player, the chances of the SEC expanding into ACC territory are slim. Therefore, by saving the Big 12, the ACC became the 5th wheel in conference realignment and the squeakiest in terms of football. Maryland’s announcement for departure was the writing on the wall, making it a pot of gold waiting to be raided by Delaney, Slive, and Bowlsby.
In the meantime, all eyes are on Maryland and their looming court battle to leave the ACC. If it can be accomplished with relatively low cost and legal fees, expect the dominoes to fall hard. So this is what I think happens if/when the ACC implodes:
1. Big Ten adds Ga Tech, Virginia, and possibly UNC and Duke. All are AAU schools with a high reputation in research and academia. It would also give Delaney a continuous market from Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Ohio, Pittsburgh, and New York all the way through DC, Raleigh, and Atlanta.
2. Big XII adds Clemson and FSU, instantly legitimizing it’s football prowess again, and I don’t think they stop there. This might be a stretch, but with the demise of the ACC, I can see bids for Notre Dame and BYU to follow, allowing those schools to retain their current TV rights while giving them a BCS conference to play in (it will be vital to belong to one of the four BCS conferences as we move toward a playoff system). Though hard to swallow, if this happened, the Big 12 would become the ultimate football conference with the two most renown programs plus OU, FSU, BYU, and Clemson. What recruit would turn down an opportunity to play those teams?
3. SEC adds NC State and Va Tech, expanding their dominance to all the southern states and the valuable DC market. UNC and UVA would be the preferred choice, but I think they won’t be persuaded once the Big Ten moves south. The SEC would, therefore, retain the position of being the most homogeneous, stable conference, with the potential to add Pitt and Cincinatti for additional media coverage.
4. The remaining ACC schools merge with Big East and lose automatic BCS eligibility.
The wildcards here are UNC and Duke—whether they split or stick together. Naturally, I would love for the SEC to gain UNC over NC State, but I can’t see them passing on the opportunity to join the most prestigious academic conference in the country along with their neighbors to the north and south, not to mention the potential landslide of cash when the Big Ten Network expands to the south. (Btw, the dark horse here is the PAC12. You know Scott won't idly sit by while all this happens…)
In conclusion: The landscape of college football has changed, and the Big Ten and Big 12 are in prime positions, along with the SEC, to pillage what’s left of the poor ACC. When the dust settles, four super-conferences will emerge with their own Networks, and the days of regional rivalries and decades of tradition will be a thing of the past. Obviously, the big winner here would be the Big Ten. They would get the best of the ACC in terms of academics and TV markets. With coverage from Minneapolis to Atlanta, the B1G would become the most powerful and wealthy conference ever. The Big 12 would get the second biggest boost, adding Florida and South Carolina markets and instant brand recognition. If they somehow added ND, the Big 12 would become the most recognized football conference in America. The SEC still comes out ahead by adding NC and DC markets, but add the least in terms of athletic prestige and market value.
[This message has been edited by Wede01 (edited 1/1/2013 6:10p).]
Jim Delaney set the wheels in motion two years ago by grabbing Nebraska, which came as a surprise to some, but not to those who remember the glory days under Tom Osborne. We knew Nebraska was unhappy playing second fiddle to Big Texas influence (and unequal profits) and had long coveted a home in the Big Ten. Colorado’s subsequent jump to the Pac-12 wasn’t a shocker, either; regionally, it just made sense. The real game-changer came when Larry Scott almost convinced 4 Big XII schools to join the Pac-12 (with Colorado). It was a sign that a new dawn in college sports was upon us—when a conference’s success would be dictated by network deals and television sets, not competition. Instead of following the crowd, however, A&M sought independence in the SEC, bringing Mizzou with them, and we all thought the Big 12 was doomed.
That’s when Mike Slive made one of the most brilliant moves in the game of conference realignment: he signed a bowl deal with the Big 12 giving it long-term legitimacy as a major BCS conference. Consequently, I think it will lead to the demise of the ACC, allowing the SEC to expand into North Carolina and Virginia. Think about it, the Big 12 has no viewer markets of interest to the SEC (except, perhaps, Oklahoma City) so saving it would not have hindered SEC interests. The ACC, on the other hand, is in direct competition with the SEC, yet as long as it remained a viable BCS player, the chances of the SEC expanding into ACC territory are slim. Therefore, by saving the Big 12, the ACC became the 5th wheel in conference realignment and the squeakiest in terms of football. Maryland’s announcement for departure was the writing on the wall, making it a pot of gold waiting to be raided by Delaney, Slive, and Bowlsby.
In the meantime, all eyes are on Maryland and their looming court battle to leave the ACC. If it can be accomplished with relatively low cost and legal fees, expect the dominoes to fall hard. So this is what I think happens if/when the ACC implodes:
1. Big Ten adds Ga Tech, Virginia, and possibly UNC and Duke. All are AAU schools with a high reputation in research and academia. It would also give Delaney a continuous market from Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Ohio, Pittsburgh, and New York all the way through DC, Raleigh, and Atlanta.
2. Big XII adds Clemson and FSU, instantly legitimizing it’s football prowess again, and I don’t think they stop there. This might be a stretch, but with the demise of the ACC, I can see bids for Notre Dame and BYU to follow, allowing those schools to retain their current TV rights while giving them a BCS conference to play in (it will be vital to belong to one of the four BCS conferences as we move toward a playoff system). Though hard to swallow, if this happened, the Big 12 would become the ultimate football conference with the two most renown programs plus OU, FSU, BYU, and Clemson. What recruit would turn down an opportunity to play those teams?
3. SEC adds NC State and Va Tech, expanding their dominance to all the southern states and the valuable DC market. UNC and UVA would be the preferred choice, but I think they won’t be persuaded once the Big Ten moves south. The SEC would, therefore, retain the position of being the most homogeneous, stable conference, with the potential to add Pitt and Cincinatti for additional media coverage.
4. The remaining ACC schools merge with Big East and lose automatic BCS eligibility.
The wildcards here are UNC and Duke—whether they split or stick together. Naturally, I would love for the SEC to gain UNC over NC State, but I can’t see them passing on the opportunity to join the most prestigious academic conference in the country along with their neighbors to the north and south, not to mention the potential landslide of cash when the Big Ten Network expands to the south. (Btw, the dark horse here is the PAC12. You know Scott won't idly sit by while all this happens…)
In conclusion: The landscape of college football has changed, and the Big Ten and Big 12 are in prime positions, along with the SEC, to pillage what’s left of the poor ACC. When the dust settles, four super-conferences will emerge with their own Networks, and the days of regional rivalries and decades of tradition will be a thing of the past. Obviously, the big winner here would be the Big Ten. They would get the best of the ACC in terms of academics and TV markets. With coverage from Minneapolis to Atlanta, the B1G would become the most powerful and wealthy conference ever. The Big 12 would get the second biggest boost, adding Florida and South Carolina markets and instant brand recognition. If they somehow added ND, the Big 12 would become the most recognized football conference in America. The SEC still comes out ahead by adding NC and DC markets, but add the least in terms of athletic prestige and market value.
[This message has been edited by Wede01 (edited 1/1/2013 6:10p).]