3-0, 3-1 counts...

1,277 Views | 8 Replies | Last: 10 mo ago by ThenamesAg
GymBroFisher
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I'm pretty sure Schloss was huge on analytics, he called takes on 3-0 and 3-1 counts 90% of the time it felt like. I'm pretty sure the % of getting on is higher by taking in those counts, also runs up pitch count over time.
Unless you know through scouting the pitcher is going to pipe them down the middle most of the time even then if the pitcher is struggling then it's better to take. Also, unless the bases are loaded, a lot of pitchers will refuse to throw a for sure strike.

We've killed multiple innings with guys on base this season by swinging in these counts at bad pitches.
ThenamesAg
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AG
We have the same analytics staff as last year, so if there is a difference, it's a messaging thing.
1stGenAg01
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AG
It's all situational when it comes to green lights in these counts and there are multiple factors to consider.
themissinglink
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AG
I agree generally. I was frustrated against TSU to see Kent swinging 3-0 with bases loaded and a struggle pitcher.

On the other hand, With the struggles in the batters box this season, I don't mind letting them swing away a bit more to give them some confidence on what is probably the most hittable pitch they will see all game.
matt.maggio3
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AG
Using MLB odds (would love is someone had this at college level), you have an 72% chance of reaching base at 3-0. If you move to 3-1 you drop to a 58% chance. Reaching a 3-2 count puts you at a 45% chance of reaching base.

Based on that, at a 3-0 count I would look for a specific pitch and only swing if it's location type and speed you want. Basically look for a pitch to do damage on. The problem is our team so far when swinging 3-0 is either not being selective enough, not seeing it as good as they thought they did, or misfiring on it and not making the contact they wanted to (a few are just missed from being barreled up).

At 3-1, I'm still selective but looking for something I can make hard contact on and not necessarily the perfect pitch. My opinion you use the 3-0 pitch combined with the situation to inform what you're looking for 3-1.

3-2 you gotta swing at a strike or you're 0% chance of making it on base.
jkag89
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C'mon, everybody knew the Aggies would never swing at the first pitch hence the opposition grooved the that pitch right down the middle so we were rarely if ever in 3-0, 3-1 counts.


Quote:

We've killed multiple innings with guys on base this season by swinging in these counts at bad pitches.
Which innings of which games? While I do recall games where promising innings ended without a run crossing the plate for the Ags, I checked the box scores of a several of these games but the zero put up on the scoreboard in these innings wasn't due to being aggressive on 3-0 or 3-1 counts. My search was by no means comprehensive but I did a quick look at the play-by-play of the Sunday game vs Ca Poly, the Zona game and the Okie State game.

I don't think POS put the take sign on most 3-0 and 3-1 counts. Of course in certain situations and with certain hitters more likely than others to get the take sign but 90% of the time, no. Most coaches preach that hitters be very selective in these counts but also don't want them to automatically pass on pitches in which they can do damage. In other words don't do the pitcher any favors by being overly anxious and expand the zone.
TarponChaser
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themissinglink said:

I agree generally. I was frustrated against TSU to see Kent swinging 3-0 with bases loaded and a struggle pitcher.

On the other hand, With the struggles in the batters box this season, I don't mind letting them swing away a bit more to give them some confidence on what is probably the most hittable pitch they will see all game.

Kent is one of your bell-cows on this roster and a guy who can touch 'em all on any given swing. 3-0 with the bases loaded you probably give him the green light if he likes the pitch.
GymBroFisher
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ThenamesAg said:

We have the same analytics staff as last year, so if there is a difference, it's a messaging thing.
Pretty sure Schloss was making the calls on takes vs green light and running the overall offensive strategy. Just because we have the same data doesn't mean we are making the same decisions.
ThenamesAg
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AG
Hence the messaging?
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