The Odds of Hitting Two Grand Slams in the Bottom of the Ninth

5,847 Views | 15 Replies | Last: 9 mo ago by zephyr88
threeanout
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9:45p, 4/12/25
AG
I found this on AI:

The odds of two grand slams in a single inning, especially the bottom of the 9th, are astronomically low. It's a very rare event, and the likelihood is essentially negligible.

The likelihood of a grand slam is roughly 1 in every 1,000 at-bats. Therefore, the odds of two grand slams in the same inning are far less than 1 in 1,000,000,000, making it a highly improbable occurrence.
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The_Truth
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10:10p, 4/12/25
AG
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trouble
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10:25p, 4/12/25
AG

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wasntme
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10:38p, 4/12/25
so 50/50, they will either do it o they wont
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Martin Cash
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In reply to threeanout • 11:15p, 4/12/25
AG
threeanout said:
I found this on AI:

The odds of two grand slams in a single inning, especially the bottom of the 9th, are astronomically low. It's a very rare event, and the likelihood is essentially negligible.

The likelihood of a grand slam is roughly 1 in every 1,000 at-bats. Therefore, the odds of two grand slams in the same inning are far less than 1 in 1,000,000,000, making it a highly improbable occurrence.
I'm thinking that would be the odds of the same hitter hitting two slams in the 9th.
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00
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11:22p, 4/12/25
AG
I believe Fernando tatis is the only known player to hit 2 grand slams in one inning.
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W
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11:49p, 4/12/25
AG
also considering that roughly half of all baseball games -- don't make it to the bottom of the 9th

the home team closes out the win in the top of the 9th
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Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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11:55p, 4/12/25
2 in one inning should be a mucho grande
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flakrat
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1:35a, 4/13/25
AG
These all have to be progressively insane: Home team loads the bases in the bottom of the 9th, clears them with a grand slam, loads them again, clears them again.
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Adam87inSA
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In reply to flakrat • 3:04a, 4/13/25
AG
flakrat said:
These all have to be progressively insane: Home team loads the bases in the bottom of the 9th, clears them with a grand slam, loads them again, clears them again.
AND the home team has to be down enough to NEED two grand slams
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AggieMac06
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9:04a, 4/13/25
AG
This is the first time it has ever happened in college or MLB. Being down five or more and hitting two grand slams in the bottom of the 9th to win? Only once. Yesterday. History made.
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zephyr88
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9:16a, 4/13/25
AG
According to Grok:

April 12, 2025: Texas A&M had two grand slams in the ninth inning, with Jace LaViolette and Caden Sorrell hitting them against Mississippi State, marking the 25th known instance in NCAA history and the third since at least 1990.
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Adam87inSA
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9:42a, 4/13/25
AG
According to SEC Sports article:

Texas A&M is the 25th team in NCAA history to record two grand slams in an inning and the third since at least 1990 to accomplish the feat in the ninth.
The come-from-behind win marked the largest in Olsen Field history, surpassing the previous record of nine runs (2024, 2022, 2012). It also marked the largest in program history since at least 1974.
The 2022 comeback victory also came against South Carolina.

https://www.secsports.com/news/2025/04/ninth-inning-grand-slams-lift-aggies-to-win-over-gamecocks
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cords12
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10:05a, 4/13/25
Those odds are better than what I would have given this team to win the CWS after they got run ruled and shutout in Knoxville!

WOW, what a turnaround since that game! Incredible!
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Blonde Coffee Beans
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In reply to 00 • 10:21a, 4/13/25
00 said:
I believe Fernando tatis is the only known player to hit 2 grand slams in one inning.

As a teenager, I remeber thinking he was going to be our next Juan Gonzalez when he was coming up from the minors
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zephyr88
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11:32a, 4/13/25
AG
According to Grok:

In Major League Baseball (MLB) history, only one player has hit two grand slams in the same inning: Fernando Tats Sr. of the St. Louis Cardinals, on April 23, 1999, against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the third inning, both off pitcher Chan Ho Park.

In NCAA Division I college baseball, at least two players are confirmed to have done so:
1. Jim LaFountain of Louisville, on March 24, 1976, against Western Kentucky in the third inning.
2. Liam McFadden-Ackman of Northern Kentucky, on February 27, 2023, against Western Michigan in the first inning.
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