Ags are sitting at 8-10 in conference right now. Mizzou *should* be a sweep, but won't do much to strengthen the argument. There are 4 series left - sips, corndogs, Mizzou, and Dawgs

Don't aim for a passing grade…

I think UF gets in at 13-17 better OOC stats
I think the Ags are on the bubble at 13-17

Win two of those series and don't get swept in the others should be the minimum goal. That gets to a minimum 14 wins and will certainly get in.

But I'm fully on the koolaide ready to win all 4 remaining series.

Sq 17 said:

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I think UF gets in at 13-17 better OOC stats
I think the Ags are on the bubble at 13-17

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They're not going to leave 13-17 SEC teams out. Florida probably gets in with 12 wins if their OOC record is good.

billydean05 said:

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Got to be feeling pretty confident at 14-16.

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14 damn near earns a host spot or borderline a top25 team and 2-seed probably. 13 wins will get in easy. 12 wins probably requires a better OOC record but idk. Toughest conference in America, super-conference and 14 wins got you in before SEC added OU & Sips. 12-18 isn't bad for some teams, but for us that'd be finishing 4-8 with bad OOC.

D1Baseball Kendall Roger on TexAgs a few weeks ago is who basically said 12 or 13 wins is needed.

13 will make it. 12 would be skirting it awfully hard. 11 isn't getting ANYBODY in, RPI be damned

I'll feel pretty good getting to 13. 14 or 15 certainly isn't unrealistic

Not sure where else to put this... D1's updated field of 64 now has us as a 2-seed at #16 TCU, paired with the #1 t.u. for Supers.


https://instagr.am/p/DIwn-MMy-mD

Ag1188 said:

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Sq 17 said:

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I think UF gets in at 13-17 better OOC stats
I think the Ags are on the bubble at 13-17

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They're not going to leave 13-17 SEC teams out. Florida probably gets in with 12 wins if their OOC record is good.

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That's my thought as well

13

I don't know but pass me some of what y'all have been drinking. 13-17 in SEC play RPI would probably be in the 35-40 range that is squarely on the bubble

Artorias said:

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Ags are sitting at 8-10 in conference right now. Mizzou *should* be a sweep, but won't do much to strengthen the argument. There are 4 series left - sips, corndogs, Mizzou, and Dawgs

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If season ended now, A&M would in IN.

I think if they get to 13 wins....they are in.

14 wins...guaranteed.

If they beat Texas....and only got to 12 wins...still think they get in.

Hard to not want this team in tourney....draws a lot of viewers as we crapped the bed as #1 and then made a magical comeback. Even if they cool off.

Artorias said:

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Ags are sitting at 8-10 in conference right now. Mizzou *should* be a sweep, but won't do much to strengthen the argument. There are 4 series left - sips, corndogs, Mizzou, and Dawgs

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How many conference tournament wins would be required to lock us into the postseason, based on a 14-16 regular season record?

I think we looked at this a couple of years ago. Historically, if I recall right (and I may not), everyone at 14 -- assuming a full schedule -- got in; most teams at 13 got in and a few at 12 did as well. I think the years that the 12s and 13s struggled to make it were years where there were 3 really good SEC teams, 3-4 really BAD ones, and the rest were floating around between 10-16 or so wins (i.e. the conference wasn't very strong top to bottom). In a year where there are several strong teams at the top and a strong group in the middle who steal a game or two on the road from the top teams, it is encouraging for the sub-500 in conference. At least in the last 4-5 years, the committee doesn't seem to have a problem letting in a LOT of SEC teams, unlike a decade or so ago.

billydean05 said:

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I don't know but pass me some of what y'all have been drinking. 13-17 in SEC play RPI would probably be in the 35-40 range that is squarely on the bubble

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Florida at 6-12 is No. 23 in RPI with Arkansas, Bama, Texas, and SC to play. It's hard to imagine their RPI dropping out of the 20s if they win at a much better rate (6-6) against those teams to finish 12-18. I think they'd get in at 11-19.

https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2025/rpi-live

We should be a lock at 13 wins

one game at a time it will take care of itself if keep playing with that mindset.

phatty26 said:

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one game at a time it will take care of itself if keep playing with that mindset.

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This. I think we can at least upgrade to series at a time.

Here we go. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2025-ncaa-baseball-tournament-bracket-projected-field-of-64-april-23/

Florida projected last one in at 6-12 in the SEC, which is a 10-20 win rate. I don't know if they'd be in at 10, but 11 is a pretty safe bet.

Eligible At-Large SEC teams to reach NCAA Tournament (Since 1999)

Wins:
16+ Wins 121 of 121 Teams = 100%
15 Wins 21 of 27 Teams = 78%
14 Wins 16 of 23 Teams = 70%
13 Wins 10 of 26 Teams = 38%
12 Wins 3 of 17 Teams = 18%
0-11 Wins 0 of 18 Teams = 0%


https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-much-does-a-winning-conference-record-mean-in-the-ncaa-tournament-debate/

Surprising that 15 wins wasn't a lock but BDF, PAC and ACC were better in that era.

The minimum conference win totals should go below 12 now that we added two more top 20 teams into the league bringing 54 more mathematical losses between them and their 18 opponents.

Florida loses to Arkansas (1-1 on the weekend) to drop to 7-13 and move up to 19 in RPI. Maybe 10 wins would get them in, but I'm still hoping for 11 so the precedent is set.

https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2025/rpi-live