Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

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Tailgate88
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3:57p, 3/13/20
AG
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

This is a great article. I posted it on the politics thread but it belongs here.. If you are not taking the Coronavirus seriously, you should. We WILL get through this, but the next weeks and months will be a challenge.

Wash your hands OFTEN - every time you enter a building it should be the first thing you do. Don't touch your face. Stay home if you can. Help your neighbors. Use Clorox wipes on everything.

Take this seriously.

Quote:
With everything that's happening about the Coronavirus, it might be very hard to make a decision of what to do today. Should you wait for more information? Do something today? What?
Here's what I'm going to cover in this article, with lots of charts, data and models with plenty of sources:

  • How many cases of coronavirus will there be in your area?
  • What will happen when these cases materialize?
  • What should you do?
  • When?
When you're done reading the article, this is what you'll take away:

  • The coronavirus is coming to you.
  • It's coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
  • It's a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
  • When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
  • Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways.
  • Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
  • They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.
  • The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today.
  • That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now.

As a politician, community leader or business leader, you have the power and the responsibility to prevent this.

You might have fears today: What if I overreact? Will people laugh at me? Will they be angry at me? Will I look stupid? Won't it be better to wait for others to take steps first? Will I hurt the economy too much?

But in 24 weeks, when the entire world is in lockdown, when the few precious days of social distancing you will have enabled will have saved lives, people won't criticize you anymore: They will thank you for making the right decision.

Ok, let's do this.
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nortex97
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4:01p, 3/13/20
AG
My stash of toilet paper laughs at people pondering social distancing.
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gocobra
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4:06p, 3/13/20
AG
I should be ok....

unless the power goes out then I'm having a BIG BBQ....

no guests invited... just me and Momma and the dogs.
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SquirrellyDan
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4:11p, 3/13/20
AG
Please heed gov Abbott's advice about not stockpiling food, tp, etc. this isn't a hurricane. Food will be restocked. If the virus is so bad we can't make a trip to the grocery store then extra toilet paper isn't going to help you.
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Tailgate88
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In reply to gocobra • 4:22p, 3/13/20
AG
gocobra said:
I should be ok....

unless the power goes out then I'm having a BIG BBQ....

no guests invited... just me and Momma and the dogs.
If the power goes out, we are having one hell of a venison feast and I'll need the whole neighborhood to come help eat it.
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tamuags08
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4:35p, 3/13/20
AG
I think some folks buying food (like myself) think of it as less frequent trips to the store in the future. To further social distance/isolate/etc.
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BTHOthatguy
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In reply to gocobra • 7:25p, 3/13/20
AG
You're gonna eat your dog? That's how this whole thing started.
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rab79
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In reply to gocobra • 9:22p, 3/13/20
AG
gocobra said:
I should be ok....

unless the power goes out then I'm having a BIG BBQ....

no guests invited... just me and Momma and the dogs.
Well that is where the emergency generator comes in, propane of course.
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cowenlaw
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9:59p, 3/13/20
AG
Trying to do my part.

Bought a bunch of laptops today. Starting next week almost all of our employees will work from home.

I banned travel on commercial airlines, and asked employees to limit travel if at all possible. (We are a law firm, and as of this morning there were still a few judges that were insisting on appearances at in-person hearings; hopefully that will change next week). We are doing all depositions and meetings by videoconference. Using DocuSign to get documents executed rather than having people come to the office and sign.

Still need someone to receive mail and scan it in, as well as to print things and send them out. But by going for 35 people in the office to 2-3 people in the office we are limiting the opportunity for the virus to spread.
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OverSeas AG
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In reply to cowenlaw • 1:06p, 3/14/20
AG
Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess
I despise Marxists... the most repugnant people alive.
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jagvocate
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In reply to OverSeas AG • 1:14p, 3/14/20
AG
Search "online notary" ... not all states allow though

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cowenlaw
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In reply to OverSeas AG • 2:20p, 3/14/20
AG
OverSeas AG said:
Don't mean to derail thread but maybe you can help... I have some estate documents I really need to get signed (wills, poa, etc). Would you have an idea how to get that done without having to go in person somewhere. I saw you mentioned docusign... and a light bulb went off. TIA
What state are you in? Texas has online notaries that would allow you to do this online.
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OverSeas AG
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In reply to cowenlaw • 2:38p, 3/14/20
AG
Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess
I despise Marxists... the most repugnant people alive.
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cowenlaw
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In reply to OverSeas AG • 2:47p, 3/14/20
AG
OverSeas AG said:
Texas. Had no idea. Thx!
I had no idea either until last week, when I started looking for ways to keep my law practice going with everyone working from home.
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Chuck Gay
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3:02p, 3/14/20
AG
6 months of social distancing and shutdowns needed to "flatten the curve".

Do you all understand the trade off we are making? You still get the virus. We just all don't get it over 2 months. We get it over 12-18 months. That is the theory in play.

Do you understand the impact on our economy, your wealth, your opportunities, our nations wealth?

How many lives will be saved as a result? 80,000 died in our flu season just 2 years ago in the US.

Do we do all of this, endure the coming drastic pain, just to lose the most vulnerable we are saving next flu season?

Has anyone put all of this together will real costs and outcomes? Or do we just say that the schools that cancelled and local mayors that started this know better than us.
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adairtexas
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5:37p, 3/14/20
Sorry but had there not been a group from ft bend county that did a Nile river cruise with flights through Italy we wouldnt have a case at all. Nowhere near 80k people will die from this. As always if you feel you are sick, stay home. A little common sense goes a long way.
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VaultingChemist
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In reply to Chuck Gay • 6:14p, 3/14/20
AG
Chuck Gay said:
6 months of social distancing and shutdowns needed to "flatten the curve".

Do you all understand the trade off we are making? You still get the virus. We just all don't get it over 2 months. We get it over 12-18 months. That is the theory in play.

Do you understand the impact on our economy, your wealth, your opportunities, our nations wealth?

How many lives will be saved as a result? 80,000 died in our flu season just 2 years ago in the US.

Do we do all of this, endure the coming drastic pain, just to lose the most vulnerable we are saving next flu season?

Has anyone put all of this together will real costs and outcomes? Or do we just say that the schools that cancelled and local mayors that started this know better than us.
We are trying to buy time. Time to develop vaccines, time to manufacture PPE for doctors and nurses, time to develop drug treatments, time to implement NPIs.

Rather than 0.5% of people dying from this, it could rise above 5% if our healthcare systems collapse from the avalanche of infections. Tens of thousands of lives can be saved.

If your parents can live another ten years rather than dying this spring, will it be worth the economic sacrifices?
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to Chuck Gay • 6:35p, 3/14/20
AG
Chuck Gay said:
6 months of social distancing and shutdowns needed to "flatten the curve".

Do you all understand the trade off we are making? You still get the virus. We just all don't get it over 2 months. We get it over 12-18 months. That is the theory in play.

Do you understand the impact on our economy, your wealth, your opportunities, our nations wealth?

How many lives will be saved as a result? 80,000 died in our flu season just 2 years ago in the US.

Do we do all of this, endure the coming drastic pain, just to lose the most vulnerable we are saving next flu season?

Has anyone put all of this together will real costs and outcomes? Or do we just say that the schools that cancelled and local mayors that started this know better than us.


Read the link document again in the OP. If action is not taken, the deaths may be like 30X the typical flu season. 30X.
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eric76
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In reply to gocobra • 6:39p, 3/14/20
AG
gocobra said:
I should be ok....

unless the power goes out then I'm having a BIG BBQ....

no guests invited... just me and Momma and the dogs.
Our internet and telephones went out last night. Coronavirus must have cut the fiber.
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eric76
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In reply to cowenlaw • 6:44p, 3/14/20
AG
cowenlaw said:
Trying to do my part.

Bought a bunch of laptops today. Starting next week almost all of our employees will work from home.

I banned travel on commercial airlines, and asked employees to limit travel if at all possible. (We are a law firm, and as of this morning there were still a few judges that were insisting on appearances at in-person hearings; hopefully that will change next week). We are doing all depositions and meetings by videoconference. Using DocuSign to get documents executed rather than having people come to the office and sign.

Still need someone to receive mail and scan it in, as well as to print things and send them out. But by going for 35 people in the office to 2-3 people in the office we are limiting the opportunity for the virus to spread.
The accountant that does taxes for some members of my family is not accepting any meetings with customers at all. He tells customers that they can drop off their papers or find another accountant, but no meetings of any kind.

The accountant just recently underwent a cancer treatment and his immunological resistance is really low. Naturally, he wants to limit his exposure to just about everything.
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OverSeas AG
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In reply to eric76 • 7:07p, 3/14/20
AG
Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess
I despise Marxists... the most repugnant people alive.
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Chuck Gay
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 7:44p, 3/14/20
AG
Pumpkinhead said:
Chuck Gay said:
6 months of social distancing and shutdowns needed to "flatten the curve".

Do you all understand the trade off we are making? You still get the virus. We just all don't get it over 2 months. We get it over 12-18 months. That is the theory in play.

Do you understand the impact on our economy, your wealth, your opportunities, our nations wealth?

How many lives will be saved as a result? 80,000 died in our flu season just 2 years ago in the US.

Do we do all of this, endure the coming drastic pain, just to lose the most vulnerable we are saving next flu season?

Has anyone put all of this together will real costs and outcomes? Or do we just say that the schools that cancelled and local mayors that started this know better than us.
Read the link document again in the OP. If action is not taken, the deaths may be like 30X the typical flu season. 30X.
Worldwide we have 5,831 deaths after 2-3 months. The numbers just don't add up and that is with China denying and ignoring the virus as its origin and letting it spread unabated. It either isn't as contagious as stated or it isn't as deadly.

A 4% mortality rated is quoted for Wuhan. It was out of control there but only 80,000 cases in the Hubei province with 58 million people.
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Chuck Gay
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In reply to VaultingChemist • 7:51p, 3/14/20
AG
VaultingChemist said:

If your parents can live another ten years rather than dying this spring, will it be worth the economic sacrifices?
Do you want to quantify what you think the economic sacrifice will be? It would be a good exercise for everyone to understand the benefits and the costs.

And my parents would say hell no it wasn't worth it if their children or grandchildren lose their jobs and many don't have the unlimited opportunities our society was providing.
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to Chuck Gay • 8:11p, 3/14/20
AG
Did you read the document fully? Including the China sections? The Chinese had to implement an extreme lockdown to get control of it. Had they taken no action, the result would have been far far worse for them. If you haven't taken time to read that document, I recommend doing so.

The discussion around Chart 7: Timeline of Events in Hubei might be of particular interest to you regarding your most recent question.

If there is some particular section in it you don't understand but you do want to understand it, maybe ask and somebody can try to help.
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74OA
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In reply to Chuck Gay • 8:14p, 3/14/20
AG
From the staff post pinned up-top: "To be clear: This is not a place to post your opinion as fact or to post information not rooted in clear facts. This is not a place to have political arguments or to detail your opinions about how well or poorly the government is handling the issue. This is not a place to rant about media conspiracies. This is not a place to critique other people for their level of concern or efforts to prepare. There are forums for (some of) those conversations, but they don't belong here."
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Chuck Gay
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In reply to 74OA • 10:10p, 3/14/20
AG
74OA said:
From the staff post pinned up-top: "To be clear: This is not a place to post your opinion as fact or to post information not rooted in clear facts. This is not a place to have political arguments or to detail your opinions about how well or poorly the government is handling the issue. This is not a place to rant about media conspiracies. This is not a place to critique other people for their level of concern or efforts to prepare. There are forums for (some of) those conversations, but they don't belong here."
Hence the conversation about "flattening the curve" and that theory we are implementing as a nation. No politicians or political parties mentioned or even hinted at by me. Discussion with logic is absolutely what I'm advocating. Anything you'd like me to support or expand on?
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74OA
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In reply to Chuck Gay • 10:12p, 3/14/20
AG
Chuck Gay said:
74OA said:
From the staff post pinned up-top: "To be clear: This is not a place to post your opinion as fact or to post information not rooted in clear facts. This is not a place to have political arguments or to detail your opinions about how well or poorly the government is handling the issue. This is not a place to rant about media conspiracies. This is not a place to critique other people for their level of concern or efforts to prepare. There are forums for (some of) those conversations, but they don't belong here."
Hence the conversation about "flattening the curve" and that theory we are implementing as a nation. No politicians or political parties mentioned or even hinted at by me. Discussion with logic is absolutely what I'm advocating. Anything you'd like me to support or expand on?
Read the guidance again. Your comments are argumentative and almost entirely your unsupported opinion. Politics board is available.
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