The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 137 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan). Worldometer.com

44% of closed cases in Italy are deaths so far.

FrioAg 00 said:

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That's misleading, because the outbreak has risen so rapidly there that not very many cases are closed. A lot of the open cases haven't been known long enough to close as "recovery"

I'm other words, Death can happen in under 2-4 weeks but "recovery" cannot.

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Using every case in the denominator still yields ~ 7%

Don't disagree. I'm hearing we'll end up at 0.6% when all is said and done

In Italy, the death toll is high because they're triaging. That's how it will be here in 10-14 days.

I think the less than 1% rate is also misleading. That's mostly based off of South Korea, because they have tested nearly everyone in the country, so they've caught almost all the cases... But South Korea also locked down the entire country very quickly. Probably quicker than just about any country. I don't think most Western countries can do what they did. I think it'll end up being around 2%.

Thomas Ford 91 said:

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In Italy, the death toll is high because they're triaging. That's how it will be here in 10-14 days.

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With the measures in place hopefully not. Besides we have up to 3x the per capita critical care capacity

AustinAg2K said:

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I think the less than 1% rate is also misleading. That's mostly based off of South Korea, because they have tested nearly everyone in the country, so they've caught almost all the cases... But South Korea also locked down the entire country very quickly. Probably quicker than just about any country. I don't think most Western countries can do what they did. I think it'll end up being around 2%.

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Based on my facebook friends, I would think it will spread fast here. There are still people today that think it is a joke.

If that happens, we will have doctors having to choose who gets treatment here and have a higher death rate than South Korea. I hope it will not be as bad as Italy.

At the risk of oversimplifying, a single percentage applied to the whole population is somewhat misleading since it doesn't affect the overall population -- the distribution of those affected is skewed far right. Bear in mind that's just among those who test positive and the population of people getting tested is not representative of the number of actual cases right now due to either lack of tests available, time delays in symptoms starting, or younger folks just not being severely affected enough to warrant a test.

To put it in a little more context, there are some estimates out there that 96 million Americans (30%) will contract this eventually, so the below percentages are a subset within that group...which is still a lot.



At this point, no one really knows. Yeah, there's a lot of overblown and sensationalized media being circulated right now, but given the circumstances, I don't think it's too much to ask that people take it seriously and do what's being asked with social distancing. At least until there's better data to make rational decisions with.

aggie-beta said:

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AustinAg2K said:

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I think the less than 1% rate is also misleading. That's mostly based off of South Korea, because they have tested nearly everyone in the country, so they've caught almost all the cases... But South Korea also locked down the entire country very quickly. Probably quicker than just about any country. I don't think most Western countries can do what they did. I think it'll end up being around 2%.

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Based on my facebook friends, I would think it will spread fast here. There are still people today that think it is a joke.

If that happens, we will have doctors having to choose who gets treatment here and have a higher death rate than South Korea. I hope it will not be as bad as Italy.

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You don't need to go to Facebook, just check forum 16 to see how many people think this is fake.

I think parts of the country will be hit very hard, but other parts will be pretty minor. We are a vast country with many different types of areas. Rural and suburban areas will likely do better because there is a natural social distancing. The North East of the country is screwed, though.

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At this point, no one really knows. Yeah, there's a lot of overblown and sensationalized media being circulated right now, but given the circumstances, I don't think it's too much to ask that people take it seriously and do what's being asked with social distancing. At least until there's better data to make rational decisions with.

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The Hubs is a retired firefighter. They drilled for mass casualty events. By Friday afternoon we were both fully expecting that those protocols would be in the news for several locations over the weekend, signalling that the hospitals were filling up.

Fingers crossed that the expected surge doesn't materialize to that point over the next week. Maybe because it's Sunday and people are just exhaling and calming down or maybe it's the calm before the storm. We'll watch and see, I guess.

Pelayo said:

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Don't disagree. I'm hearing we'll end up at 0.6% when all is said and done

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I hope so. It should fall over time as treatment improves.

And that's going to complicate the retrospective, and cause people to think the threat right now and in the short term is/was less than it is/was.

Wartime Effort in UK

Manufacturing industries in the UK have been asked to help produce medical equipment; hotels could be used as hospitals. Those 70 and older could face 4-month quarantine.

TxSquarebody said:

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Wartime Effort in UK

Manufacturing industries in the UK have been asked to help produce medical equipment; hotels could be used as hospitals. Those 70 and older could face 4-month quarantine.

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As a manufacturer in a totally different industry I would be in support of this. Not sure what we could make to help the effort but we have capacity. We don't have any background in medical supplies but certainly there is something we could do.

FrioAg 00 said:

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That's misleading, because the outbreak has risen so rapidly there that not very many cases are closed. A lot of the open cases haven't been known long enough to close as "recovery"

I'm other words, Death can happen in under 2-4 weeks but "recovery" cannot.

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I'm not at all try to insinuate that this is a 40% death rate, just pointing out the degree of trouble that Italy is having. I'm in agreement with many on here, properly managed, I think we are in the low single digits as far as mortality rate.

Heck the US is at 52% right now on closed cases, no doubt it will fall

I sure hope so, but 1% seems a bit optimistic

The over 60 crowd and the crowd that lives with other chronic conditions make up 10-15% of our population and I do fear their outcome is going to settle out to something higher than 5% mortality regardless of what resources they have available or when exactly they get this. Even if the remaining 85-90% of population do ultimately hit an outcome of 0.5%, the aggregate numbers are going to hit 1% or higher.

Such a large part of the panic going on is that people don't really deal in the reality of our natural mortality. They are not emotionally prepared to confront the risk of death which is honestly around us all the time anyway.

Like my retired father said today about CV19 "it sounds like a awful way to die, but honestly which way doesn't sound like an awful way to die? It's going to happen for me sometime anyway and I'll be damned if I'm going to spend my time worried about it while I'm still breathing."