Good illustration to understand the math a little better

1,707 Views | 7 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by fig96
AG81xx
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AG
https://apple.news/AWTPfZ4rMQwmOos2PRsrVRw
fig96
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More web friendly link, this is actually a really fascinating illustration of how things can spread:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
flakrat
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NASAg03
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"If the number of cases were to continue to double every three days, there would be about a hundred million cases in the United States by May."

Why the hell are they talking quarantine for just a few weeks!?!?

If those are the numbers, we'll have to shut down the world economy for months!!! That's not possible.

Way more people will die from that than delaying this spread.
fig96
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If my understanding is correct, the few weeks of social distancing (which I think may end up being a bit more than that) will help control and delay the spread enough that we don't have to shut things down for months.

But how that all works remains to be seen, right now it seems like a whole lot of people are just going about their daily lives.
Vernada
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Exactly. The whole flatten the curve thing.
NASAg03
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I get it. But spending two months to flatten the curve to four months isn't feasible. That's what i'm saying.

Why do you think this will last only 2 weeks, when without measures in place this takes us into May? That means measures have to be maintained during the duration of the spread to keep it low.
AggieFrog
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NASAg03 said:

I get it. But spending two months to flatten the curve to four months isn't feasible. That's what i'm saying.

Why do you think this will last only 2 weeks, when without measures in place this takes us into May? That means measures have to be maintained during the duration of the spread to keep it low.

Correct. We're looking at June, optimistically, before we're starting to get back to normal. We'll be social distancing for quite a while.
fig96
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NASAg03 said:

I get it. But spending two months to flatten the curve to four months isn't feasible. That's what i'm saying.

Why do you think this will last only 2 weeks, when without measures in place this takes us into May? That means measures have to be maintained during the duration of the spread to keep it low.
I mean, I literally said I think it will be longer

But there's a ton of factors that affect this, I don't think anyone has an exact answer at this point. As we limit the spread, people are recovering so there's less cases out there to infect other people. And that all depends how well people actually adhere to trying to social distance early on.

Will it affect the economy? Absolutely, but I think we're also seeing a whole lot of businesses realizing that people can work remotely and still do their jobs which is a welcome change.
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