That should be correct.

The one number that matters more than any other is new cases per day. Obviously a ramp up in testing will capture a lot of previously unknown cases quickly, and will skew all the numbers. Over the next couple of weeks it should begin to reflect reality.

Once new cases per day drops below linear expansion consistently (fewer cases each day than the previous day), then we know the measures taken limiting public gatherings are working.

There is a lag time of a week or so from large-scale isolation until the rates will reflect the change since many people who have distanced themselves are already infected but aren't yet showing symptoms.

I would expect deaths vs. positive tests (death rate) to continue to drop as I believe the number of positive tests will grow much faster than deaths. The goal is to slow down that new cases per day rate.