Is that when we think this may start to diminish?

BDub3 said:

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That is roughly the end of the incubation period and if you have it, symptoms will start to show by then. The hope is that by then the sick people will know they are sick and stay home and curb the spread.

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Unfortunately data is coming out that it is asymptomatic people that are driving the spread

cisgenderedAggie said:

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thelaw4 said:

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BDub3 said:

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That is roughly the end of the incubation period and if you have it, symptoms will start to show by then. The hope is that by then the sick people will know they are sick and stay home and curb the spread.

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Unfortunately data is coming out that it is asymptomatic people that are driving the spread

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If you stay your ass at home for 15 days and aren't symptomatic, you probably won't be spreading it asymptomatically

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If you live with people and have asymptomatic covid you can spread it to each member of your family and at the end of 15 days those family members will go out into the world and spread it around.

AggieFrog said:

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Longest people could likely handle up front without seeing the issue yet play out here. If projections prove correct, it will become obvious in 2 weeks that it would need to be continued.

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....and even if the projections are not correct, what government official will have the balls to call this off. I'm being over the top of course, but I am a retired developer who has worked with various state and city government bureaucrats for a long time. It is very easy for them to put restrictions in place....but taking them away usually is much more difficult once they are in place.

IMO, that aspect will become the biggest issue as to 'when' this thing is 'deemed over' and by 'who'.

thelaw4 said:

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cisgenderedAggie said:

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thelaw4 said:

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BDub3 said:

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That is roughly the end of the incubation period and if you have it, symptoms will start to show by then. The hope is that by then the sick people will know they are sick and stay home and curb the spread.

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Unfortunately data is coming out that it is asymptomatic people that are driving the spread

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If you stay your ass at home for 15 days and aren't symptomatic, you probably won't be spreading it asymptomatically

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If you live with people and have asymptomatic covid you can spread it to each member of your family and at the end of 15 days those family members will go out into the world and spread it around.

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Also why it's likely to be extended.

If you're at home with someone who gets sick over the next 15 days, don't go out into the world as if everything is normal again.

Get tested and be careful.

Your point being, some one in your house is now symptomatic. So you know you should stay your ass at home longer.

cisgenderedAggie said:

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Your point being, some one in your house is now symptomatic. So you know you should stay your ass at home longer.

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No, im not talking about someone with symptoms, im talking about asymptomatic covid....

Fauci tried to refute it, probably because telling people they are essentially quarantined until July or August will cause even more panic, but Trump was telling the truth.

thelaw4 said:

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cisgenderedAggie said:

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Your point being, some one in your house is now symptomatic. So you know you should stay your ass at home longer.

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No, im not talking about someone with symptoms, im talking about asymptomatic covid....

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I'm really not seeing what's difficult about this, so my apologies if this seems dismissive. Just trying to break this down:

- you and your family stay home for 15 days, but someone is inflected but not showing symptoms.
- somewhere around day 10-12, someone has cough, fever, shortness of breath. (Assume this person eventually tests positive).
- on day 14, no one else in your family is showing symptoms.

Why do you think 15 days is an all clear for you and your asymptomatic family?

Play the same scenario with no sick people on Day15. Why do you think there is an asymptomatic carrier?

This is about flushing it out of hiding.

Captain Pablo said:

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Fenrir said:

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Fauci tried to refute it, probably because telling people they are essentially quarantined until July or August will cause even more panic, but Trump was telling the truth.

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People are not going to be quarantined in their houses until August

People will be coming out, whether they are Given permission or not.

By then, they will be desperate

I really, honestly, do not think these morons in government understand what a Powderkeg they are creating

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Then you'll probably see the National Guard called out to help maintain civil order. Hopefully it doesn't get that ugly, and let's hope things are not going to get as bad as it seems to have gotten in Europe. France just locked down their entire country today, whereby you are not supposed to be moving around outside your home except for essential travel.

I think he's meaning to say a family spreads the virus around itself without any one of them showing symptoms after 15 days.

That might be unlikely, despite the raw number of asymptomatic people there could be in the world.

But also a great argument for more testing.

cisgenderedAggie said:

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thelaw4 said:

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cisgenderedAggie said:

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Your point being, some one in your house is now symptomatic. So you know you should stay your ass at home longer.

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No, im not talking about someone with symptoms, im talking about asymptomatic covid....

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I'm really not seeing what's difficult about this, so my apologies if this seems dismissive. Just trying to break this down:

- you and your family stay home for 15 days, but someone is inflected but not showing symptoms.
- somewhere around day 10-12, someone has cough, fever, shortness of breath. (Assume this person eventually tests positive).
- on day 14, no one else in your family is showing symptoms.

Why do you think 15 days is an all clear for you and your asymptomatic family?

Play the same scenario with no sick people on Day15. Why do you think there is an asymptomatic carrier?

This is about flushing it out of hiding.

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Here is some information that you should read
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html

Read this full thread coming from Italian Virology Director

You are making an incorrect assumption that covid is only spread by people with symptoms- when that is not the case at all

Captain Pablo said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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Fenrir said:

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Fauci tried to refute it, probably because telling people they are essentially quarantined until July or August will cause even more panic, but Trump was telling the truth.

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People are not going to be quarantined in their houses until August

People will be coming out, whether they are Given permission or not.

By then, they will be desperate

I really, honestly, do not think these morons in government understand what a Powderkeg they are creating

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Then you'll probably see the National Guard called out to help maintain civil order. Hopefully it doesn't get that ugly, and let's hope things are not going to get as bad as it seems to have gotten in Europe. France just locked down their entire country today, whereby you are not supposed to be moving around outside your home except for essential travel.

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I'm sure you will see the National Guard

What I'm telling you is at some point, the cost benefit side of this, it is going to become clear that these excessive measures are going to be every bit as harmful as this stupid virus

I really don't think you ate living in reality to think that a government can just confine its entire citizenry to its housesFor three or four months

I really don't think you have a firm grasp on how ugly it's going to get, and how destructive it's going to be to our country

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I honestly don't know what to think. This is unprecedented. Nobody has been through anything like this before. And we are all in the same boat right now. The entire world is dealing with this damn thing.

Perhaps they'll boil that frog slowly. Add two weeks here, two weeks there...before you know it we are in July.

Everything keeps snowballing. No idea why anyone would think the trend would suddenly change directions.

BDub3 said:

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That is roughly the end of the incubation period and if you have it, symptoms will start to show by then. The hope is that by then the sick people will know they are sick and stay home and curb the spread.

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My last sentence was not directed towards you personally.

That post wasn't for you

I bet it comes to that. We seem to be a very selfish group of people. We might need local law enforcement and the National Guard to stop grocery store runs. It's ridiculous that many people can't get food. I went to get a few steaks at HEB yesterday and all the steaks were gone.

Here's a good idea for people who did grocery runs and cleaned shop...check with your local churches and see what volunteer operations are needed. A lot of them will be food. See what you can give back to people who actually need it.

No, I'm making the assumption that presentation of symptoms is an eventual observable biomarker of infection. Also making the risk-based estimation that the likelihood of someone in your family carrying the infection is asymptomatic at the time of 15-day isolation, it is highly unlikely that the person will still be spreading asymptomatically at the end of 15-days, to which the rest of your family should assume having been infected and remain isolated (even if presently asymptomatic).

Obviously, complete isolation is in feasible as there will need to be some avenue for supply. And of course this action will not eradicate CoV. But if (huge if) people can and will comply with recommendations and advisory, 15-day could cripple the rate of spread. This relieves pressure on hospitals, allows more time to see if summer reduces spread, which allows time to complete some of the antiviral trials and ramps up production of effective treatment, and ultimately shortens the amount of time economic destruction is rampant.

But that's one world order kind of talk...

Larry Lajitas said:

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I bet it comes to that. We seem to be a very selfish group of people. We might need local law enforcement and the National Guard to stop grocery store runs. It's ridiculous that many people can't get food. I went to get a few steaks at HEB yesterday and all the steaks were gone.

Here's a good idea for people who did grocery runs and cleaned shop...check with your local churches and see what volunteer operations are needed. A lot of them will be food. See what you can give back to people who actually need it.

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Unfortunately, there probably won't be enough National Guard if it comes to that.

Pretty sure it was a shot in the dark. Buckle up, it's not going to be 15 days but several months if we are lucky.