I don't get the doomsday math.

China has 3200 deaths in MUCH worse conditions with less restrictions/precautions. And no warning signs. Let's round up to 4000. And they have a billion people.

So 4000 deaths would be 1 in 250,000 dead in China. Correct? So I don't get the doomsday math on the huge number of potential deaths in U.S. We're going to HUGE multiples of the deaths they had in China?

What am I missing?

1. China lies, so who knows the real numbers.
2. Did you see what they did there when it was at the heat of the increase? They were killing pets, tackling women and children to throw them in quarantine, bleaching and spraying disinfectant with no regard to anything, it was nuts.
3. China lies..... a lot.


There was a mass die off of animals in Wuhan. Many people were concerned that it was due to the virus. Then they found out that it was due to the massive amounts of disinfectant and bleach and who knows what that they were spraying the streets and buildings with.

1.4 billion people in china, 3200 deaths. 50 million in South Korea, 81 deaths.

aginlakeway said:

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swc93 said:

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Death isn't the only damaging outcome from the virus.

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Agree. Economic damage will be much worse.

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Yep

Yukon Cornelius said:

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aginlakeway said:

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I don't get the doomsday math.

China has 3200 deaths in MUCH worse conditions with less restrictions/precautions. And no warning signs. Let's round up to 4000. And they have a billion people.

So 4000 deaths would be 1 in 250,000 dead in China. Correct? So I don't get the doomsday math on the huge number of potential deaths in U.S. We're going to HUGE multiples of the deaths they had in China?

What am I missing?

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They killed many people and didnt add them to the numbers. They also said most people during that time period died of pneumonia not the virus. Go figure.

You can NOT trust ANYTHING from China. They are our enemy. They want to destroy us. The sooner the rest of America wakes up and figures that out the better.

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So. How about South Korea?

They are much more reliable and are sharing information.

China went through their hospitals and started deleting their data on this thing.

BowSowy said:

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South Korea is the encouraging one for me. I trust their numbers a lot more than China and their daily new cases spiked and tailed off in 30 days.

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Agree.

50 million in South Korea, 81 deaths.

That's 1 in 617,000.

BowSowy said:

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South Korea is the encouraging one for me. I trust their numbers a lot more than China and their daily new cases spiked and tailed off in 30 days.

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Agree.

50 million in South Korea, 81 deaths.

That's 1 in 617,000.

BowSowy said:

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South Korea is the encouraging one for me. I trust their numbers a lot more than China and their daily new cases spiked and tailed off in 30 days.

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Agree.

50 million in South Korea, 81 deaths.

That's 1 in 617,000.

Our neighbors son is recently back from Beijing. He is fresh out of college and was teaching English. He said you could not leave the apartment even for groceries and it was mandatory that you do not leave your house or apartment.

wyoag93 said:

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I pray that we can distance ourselves from China after all of this is over. Bring back more manufacturing and stop relying on those commies to rule the global supply chain. Hindsight is 20/20, but it was really stupid for the Western world to trust China and allow them to be as powerful as they have become.

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Agreed.

You know you can only get it from someone that has it. It isn't floating around in the air. So unless someone with the virus coughs directly onto you or on a door handle and you don't wash your hands after touching things, you are not going to get this virus. Since the first of March we have a total of 9 confirmed cases of Coronavirus in Ft. Bend County and the original 6 were all on the same Nile river cruise. Harris County that just completely shut down all businesses has 9 cases and everyone of them are travel related as well. No runs on hospitals. No lack of bed space. LOL 5.4 million people in these 2 counties and a total of 18 cases and all patients in Ft Bend have been sent home even a 70 yr old man. every bit of this is from overseas travel. The ban on travel from china was a game changer. So if the people from the Nile River cruise did not infect a bunch of people, then we are not going to have a pandemic here in these two counties. Is it really necessary to bankrupt a nation for what may be 40k total cases in the US. Practice safe and clean hygiene. Sick people stay home as you should. Wash your hands and dont get around sick people. Also the drug chloroquine has been shown to combat the Sars virus which is also a corona virus and shorten length of sickness. Why isn't it being given to suspected patients? It is used for malaria, RA, HIV and other diseases. It has been in trials in Asia since this outbreak with great results. It is generic and widely used with few to no side effects. The issues with NY, WA and CA are people coming back from overseas.

It won't be only 40k total cases in the US. I can promise you that

You can't point to China and SK as examples for why the virus isn't a big deal without accepting that China and South Korea saw the exponential growth of the virus flattened once they began aggressive quarantining, which is what the US is starting to do now. Their numbers are low BECAUSE they did something about it. It seems like a bizarre argument to use China as an example for why it's not a bigger deal, considering they went much farther with social distancing and isolation than you seem to think the US should be doing, at a huge cost to their own economy.

I wouldn't trust China at all with those numbers. Look more to Italy on how things are being reported.

People need to stop looking at the numbers of China and South Korea without looking at the actions they took. Both South Korea and China locked their countries down. If you want a better idea of what can happen without action, look at Italy. I for one do believe we are over reacting, but that's not to say that this isn't a serious issue. If we just go on as normal, we're looking at hundreds of thousands dead in the US. We don't need to be closing everything, though. People should be able to socially distance themselves and still be able to go out.

You should study epidemiology, because this isn't accurate. Infected people don't have to cough directly on someone or directly on some surface that will eventually be touched by hands and transmitted. This virus lasts a long time after being shed, so it's not just typical surfaces like door handles. Shoes and clothing are a huge transmitter of respiratory viruses...as the virus settles to the ground or to surfaces that come into contact with clothing...and if we walk on ground that has the virus, we can carry it to other places and infect people...especially children...who can be asymptomatic carriers of the virus. This is much more serious than how you describe it.

Ag Defense Rules said:

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Serious question: how did China "weld" people into their homes? Are their entire homes doors made of steel with no windows?

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They welded bars across the door frames. There are a few vids on youtube showing it.

Also, there were like 3 citizen reporters in Wuhan who were reporting the real conditions in hospitals, etc, that have disappeared. One was 'under mandatory quarantine' as determined by the government, but neither his family or friends have heard from him.

EDIT: Others beat me to it, but here is one of the vids:

Mao starved between 30 and 40M Chinese to death in the 1950s during forced farm collectivization and the world didn't even realize it until decades later.

The ability of the communist party to control what information comes out of China has only increased since then......

chico said:

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Our neighbors son is recently back from Beijing. He is fresh out of college and was teaching English. He said you could not leave the apartment even for groceries and it was mandatory that you do not leave your house or apartment.

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How did he get back into the country?

Ag Defense Rules said:

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Serious question: how did China "weld" people into their homes? Are their entire homes doors made of steel with no windows?

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The vast majority of apartments in Asian countries are 1) skyscrapers. 2) Have an outer gated metal door.