I wonder if the equities analyst at Jeffries that did that controlled for when reported infections were discovered in the respective countries.

Not a virus cheerleader, but that article isn't exactly descriptive of much.

Certainly can hope that the weather will provide some assistance. The original topics suggesting increased temp and humidity have an impact on transmission ascribed it due to aerosolized cough / sneeze droplets not traveling as far in "thicker" air.

Bear in mind, though, there's not enough data to support it just yet. The chart could just be showing the very early ramp up in southern countries.

Fingers crossed, though.

Quote:

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Not a virus cheerleader, but that article isn't exactly descriptive of much.

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I was going to post another article on this . . .Medical research is starting to surface on the subject.

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Coronavirus Could Very Well Slow by the Summer

Evidence is emerging that warmer temperatures and higher humidity can indeed affect the disease's spread.

Evidence is starting to emerge that temperature and humidity do make a difference in the ability of the virus to infect large numbers. That should give health services hope for some respite as summer spreads across northern temperate regions, aiding the ability to plan for renewed outbreaks once winter rolls around.

A study uploaded to medical pre-print server MedRxiv Monday plots recorded cases against climate conditions to suggest that there is indeed a significant correlation between outbreaks and the weather. In extreme cold and very hot and wet conditions the virus is "largely absent," the researchers from Spain, Portugal and Finland wrote, meaning that people in tropical and polar climates are unlikely to see local transmission of cases.

Another pre-print study by four Beijing-based researchers uploaded to the arXiv server last week comes to a similar conclusion after analyzing the infection rates in 100 Chinese cities. That rate, known as the R0, is a key determinant of an infection's propensity to spread. For Covid-19 it's currently estimated to be around 2.2, but moving it below 1 should, if sustained, be enough to turn the current out-of-control epidemic into an outbreak that goes extinct on its own.
Increasing the temperature by one degree centigrade reduces the R0 by 0.0383 and increasing humidity by 1% pushes it down by 0.0224, the researchers found. That should be particularly significant in places with hot, wet summers, they wrote: In the event the Tokyo Olympics goes ahead, the R0 in the city would likely be at extinction levels below 1, given normal summer conditions.

The results shouldn't be too surprising. The mechanism that causes influenza and colds to spread faster in the winter isn't perfectly understood. It appears to relate to the way virus particles can stay active on surfaces such as elevator buttons and door handles for longer in mild weather; the way people show greater susceptibility to throat infections when breathing cold, dry air; and to our tendency to congregate in warm, close conditions where diseases spread easily during winter weather. Still, it would be remarkable if Covid-19 really behaved in a manner different from every other coronavirus, or indeed almost every other common respiratory virus.

Don't start planning any summer holidays on the expectation this disease will vanish with the sun. For one thing, both studies are still just computer models, and neither has been through peer review. On top of that, even a reduced rate of infection will only slow, rather than halt the spread of this pandemic. In most places, it won't even be sufficient to push the R0 below 1, in the absence of other measures such as social distancing.
Still, one worst-case scenario for this disease where it rampages through lower-income regions of Africa and Southeast Asia, and there's no seasonal break for health services to catch a breath before the next wave is looking less likely than it did a few weeks ago. That still leaves a range of very grim scenarios, but right now we should take what comfort we can get.

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Here are the confirmed cases in Panama thus far (tropical climate) and the government's actions:

Day 1 (Monday - March 9th) : 1 case
Day 2: 8 cases (Panama closed all schools nationwide and prohibited events w/ 50 or more, all sports cancelled)
Day 3: 14 cases (Panama passed some laws giving tax breaks to employers to encourage work-at-home)
Day 4: 27 cases (Panama passed restrictions at all supermarkets nationwide limiting purchases per person of certain items)
Day 5: 36 cases
Day 6: 43 cases (No flights allowed into country from Asia or Europe, ports closed to any cruise ships)
Day 7: 55 cases (All bars, casinos, gyms now closed. Restaurants not allowed dining on-site, only take-out orders and food deliveries allowed)
Day 8 (Today): 69 cases, 7 of them hospitalized. And 4 of the 69 cases are doctors (3 having to now stay at home and 1 doctor hospitalized) (Only Panama citizens or residents allowed to enter the country. Lines at supermarkets are super long because only 50 people are allowed in a grocery store at any given time, so waiting lines outside the supermarkets can be 2-3 hours just to get in, basically a grocery store trip now looks like will be about a half-day task)

pray for a tropical storm?

Hoping for 100 degree days very soon. The heat doesn't bother me anyway. Give that over cold days any time.

May only need a few 80+ days in a row. But obviously I'm no expert at anything but giving opinion.

Capitol Ag said:

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Hoping for 100 degree days very soon. The heat doesn't bother me anyway. Give that over cold days any time.

May only need a few 80+ days in a row. But obviously I'm no expert at anything but giving opinion.

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This x million. I'd be anxiously waiting for the 90-100 degree days regardless of whether there are COVID implications or not.

As discussed in doc Reveille's post pinned up-top, the virus prefers cool temps and a dry environment, ideally around 47F.

So it is reasonable to anticipate that the advent of hot, humid weather will diminish the length of time the virus can survive on external surfaces.

If proven correct, that will help slow the spread.

makes sense. All the other types of Corona Virus don't do well in tropical weather either. The humidity makes it harder to stay airborne when you cough. The increase in UV light also kills it. Also, less people tend to congregate indoors due to cold weather.

Panama is an interesting case to follow. I spent a week in Wuhan in December when we were adopting. It has a very Tulsa/Omaha type climate. I then spent a week in Guangzhou - only a few hours away, but tropical climate year round. Low infection numbers in Guangzhou would be an anecdotal good sign.

If tropical weather slows it down... get ready for

Trump ordered the earths gods to bring tropical weather!

94chem said:

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Panama is an interesting case to follow. I spent a week in Wuhan in December when we were adopting. It has a very Tulsa/Omaha type climate. I then spent a week in Guangzhou - only a few hours away, but tropical climate year round. Low infection numbers in Guangzhou would be an anecdotal good sign.

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I'll try to keep ya'll updated on Panama. There is a ministry of health press conference every evening including giving out updated cases stats from previous 24 hours.

Slowing the spread in Panama seems it could be attributed just as easily to their aggressive social distancing.

Isn't it summer in Australia? I'm assuming it's hot there but dry.

So maybe not so much the heat but the humidity is the key factor?

Pumpkinhead said:

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Here are the confirmed cases in Panama thus far (tropical climate) and the government's actions:

Day 1 (Monday - March 9th) : 1 case
Day 2: 8 cases (Panama closed all schools nationwide and prohibited events w/ 50 or more, all sports cancelled)
Day 3: 14 cases (Panama passed some laws giving tax breaks to employers to encourage work-at-home)
Day 4: 27 cases (Panama passed restrictions at all supermarkets nationwide limiting purchases per person of certain items)
Day 5: 36 cases
Day 6: 43 cases (No flights allowed into country from Asia or Europe, ports closed to any cruise ships)
Day 7: 55 cases (All bars, casinos, gyms now closed. Restaurants not allowed dining on-site, only take-out orders and food deliveries allowed)
Day 8 (Today): 69 cases, 7 of them hospitalized. And 4 of the 69 cases are doctors (3 having to now stay at home and 1 doctor hospitalized) (Only Panama citizens or residents allowed to enter the country. Lines at supermarkets are super long because only 50 people are allowed in a grocery store at any given time, so waiting lines outside the supermarkets can be 2-3 hours just to get in, basically a grocery store trip now looks like will be about a half-day task)

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I know it's still in the very early stages for Panama. But that looks like fairly linear growth, not the exponential growth we've seen elsewhere. Have their testing capabilities and possibilities been pretty good? Or are these small rates of growth due to the lack of tests?

Sarduakar said:

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well the spring in Houston will stop it in its tracks.

YEAH global warming

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fify

BowSowy said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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Here are the confirmed cases in Panama thus far (tropical climate) and the government's actions:

Day 1 (Monday - March 9th) : 1 case
Day 2: 8 cases (Panama closed all schools nationwide and prohibited events w/ 50 or more, all sports cancelled)
Day 3: 14 cases (Panama passed some laws giving tax breaks to employers to encourage work-at-home)
Day 4: 27 cases (Panama passed restrictions at all supermarkets nationwide limiting purchases per person of certain items)
Day 5: 36 cases
Day 6: 43 cases (No flights allowed into country from Asia or Europe, ports closed to any cruise ships)
Day 7: 55 cases (All bars, casinos, gyms now closed. Restaurants not allowed dining on-site, only take-out orders and food deliveries allowed)
Day 8 (Today): 69 cases, 7 of them hospitalized. And 4 of the 69 cases are doctors (3 having to now stay at home and 1 doctor hospitalized) (Only Panama citizens or residents allowed to enter the country. Lines at supermarkets are super long because only 50 people are allowed in a grocery store at any given time, so waiting lines outside the supermarkets can be 2-3 hours just to get in, basically a grocery store trip now looks like will be about a half-day task)

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I know it's still in the very early stages for Panama. But that looks like fairly linear growth, not the exponential growth we've seen elsewhere. Have their testing capabilities and possibilities been pretty good? Or are these small rates of growth due to the lack of tests?

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They seem to be testing pretty extensively, announced last night that they had at that time 6,000 test kits in stock.

Also just a note that Panama has a population of about 4 million people, so is a really small country with a very linear top-down government (i.e., obviously not the labyrinth of federal, state, and local administrations that you have in the States).

The private health care system and infrastructure here is pretty good, with many of the doctors having done education or internships in the U.S. or Europe. Not 'first world' country but not '3rd world' either, I guess '2nd world' is how I describe it, several U.S. retirees down here. I think they only have about 100 ICU setups available though across all their hospitals, so they presumably are very worried about any case spike and thus are definitely as you can see on the 'flatten the curve' bandwagon.

Well then I take the linear growth as a somewhat positive sign regarding this virus in warmer, humid climates. Still very early, though

The Houston weekend forecast:

DSAg44 said:

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pray for a tropical storm?

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Do you want to think of what COVID-19 combined with a category 4 would be like?

Pray for no hurricanes or tropical storms this year.

I noticed #s in Malaysia shooting up the past few days so I checked their weather:

88 deg F at memorial park in Htown just a while ago... hot SOB

PJYoung said:

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I noticed #s in Malaysia shooting up the past few days so I checked their weather:

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That's linear homie

There is zero indication that warm weather will halt the spread of the virus...will it make it more unstable on surfaces? Absolutely. But there are other factors to be considered that outweigh the stability..for instance areas with high population density will always be at a greater risk for spreading no matter the temperature. Miami will so no reprieve and a lot of Florida cases are currently in that area. Additionally, as this is a global pandemic, areas of South America will not be spared as their temperatures turn cooler, only to be a new source of spreading globally as our summer will turn to fall.

Ranger222 said:

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There is zero indication that warm weather will halt the spread of the virus...will it make it more unstable on surfaces? Absolutely. But there are other factors to be considered that outweigh the stability..for instance areas with high population density will always be at a greater risk for spreading no matter the temperature. Miami will so no reprieve and a lot of Florida cases are currently in that area. Additionally, as this is a global pandemic, areas of South America will not be spared as their temperatures turn cooler, only to be a new source of spreading globally as our summer will turn to fall.

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Absolutely no question that it will halt the spread, some indication it may slow the spread. Which is a benefit.