I wonder if you Divide everything by 6 and you have your numbers ?......

Seasonal flu or cold for most probably ...

Let's see what the Doctors say about this?

I'm pretty sure I've had some form of corona before.. one year I had a dry cough for 2-3 months that I just couldn't get rid of

If this study proves true, that 2.3% mortality figure sudden can look a lot like 0.3% which is the mortality rate for the common damn Flu

The math is worrisome.

The level of hospitalization required for this virus and suddenness of the need is the problem. Asymptomatic or mild cases causing spread is the concern, hence the social distancing. While completely asymptomatic people are likely spreading the virus at a lower rate than symptomatic people on a individual level, the asymptomatic herd is still shedding virus like crazy.


Hypothetical if this article is true:
If, in a town of 100,000 people the party goes on and people get up in each other's business as usual, let's say (hypothetically) 35% of people contract it over the course of a month. If 6/7 people are asymptomatic, 5,000 people would have symptoms.

Around 16% of those symptomatic people would require hospitalization. That's around 800 people.

So at some point you'll have a need to care for 800 hospitalized patients in a town of 100,000 and these people (on average) are staying in the hospital for 8-10 days at a time (a conservative estimate as some are reporting longer stays). Let's say your town of 100,000 people only has around 450 hospital beds and is already about 90% full this time of year with other things (chest pain, heart attacks, strokes, pneumonia, regular flu, etc.) and you only have about 40 ICU beds. Then your doctors and nurses get sick. Welcome to Italy.

This is why we've banned public gatherings and are telling people to stay home. Asymptomatic cases may be more dangerous to the health system than symptomatic cases. It's true that the herd immunity will increase dramatically with the known cases, but we need to slow down the rate of spread.

FrioAg 00 said:

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If this study proves true, that 2.3% mortality figure sudden can look a lot like 0.3% which is the mortality rate for the common damn Flu

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The 2.3% has always been laughable to anyone who understands second grade math.

NASAg03 said:

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Seasonal flu is only 16% asymptomatic / unaware carriers

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I have never had a flu shot...

I have never had the flu...

I have always wondered if I have been an asymptotic carrier at times.... family all gets their flu shots, and all of them to a person have each and the flu in the last 5 years... I even care for them when they're sick, and still, I get nothing...

fullback44 said:

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I see how this works... we still need social distancing so that you don't have an explosion of cases and that 3-5% (or what ever it ends up) in the hospital could override the system...

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Correct! That's what "flattening the curve" is all about. A slow ramp up, similar to a flu season, would be much more manageable.

And for others, this isn't just about the people with COVID. Remember, 90% of people in the hospital before the outbreak were dealing with serious illness. If the system gets overwhelmed, more people will die from time-sensitive conditions like heart attacks and strokes. Other infections like bacterial pneumonia and staph will still be widespread and won't be managed as effectively. Taking it a step further, nurses taking extra patients while their colleagues are out sick is going to lead to more bedsores, patient falls, and rushed care leading to otherwise preventable mistakes. ICU patients are at high risk from hospital-acquired infections, almost all of which can be prevented by quality nursing care. Doctors taking extra patients and dealing with more severe cases at once than they are used to and working longer hours will lead to medical errors.and delays.

In one of the major outbreak zones of Italy, there is a fancy new 950 bed hospital that is as high-tech as they come. A few weeks ago EMS was able to physically get to patients complaining of chest pain and to the hospital within 15 minutes. Their average cut time on emergency surgeries was 30 minutes.

Now? They are overwhelmed to the point where patients are dying of heart attacks in the field because EMS is taking over an hour to even answer the phone due to inundations of phone calls for COVID. We don't want that here.