I still think we are a full week to two weeks out. Thousands and thousands of kids seemed to have enjoyed spring break with one another at the beach
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Virus Spike here in the US
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Last: 6 yr ago by Thomas Ford 91
Or mass testing has come on line. One of those things.
Is this news and information or an opinion?
Aggie1205 said:
Is this news and information or an opinion?
Both
Right keep blaming the spring breakers. Maybe what we're doing isn't really working and is just delaying the inevitable. But considering the number of factors and 2 to 3 week delay in seeing results, expect the goal-posts to continually be moved.
Oh wait, here's a group of scientists saying we need to enact intermittent measures for the remainder of the year.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51977802
Oh wait, here's a group of scientists saying we need to enact intermittent measures for the remainder of the year.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51977802
Mike Shaw - Class of '03
Drive thru testing finally opening up in Houston now, might see a spike in our area in a couple days time
It's likely today's numbers are the numbers from 1.5-2 weeks ago.
For instance, In Wuhan, China, there was about a 2 week delay until correct numbers were reported.
This means that when they closed down their city, at a perceived 300 new cases a day, it was actually around 3,000. When their reported "spike" came two weeks after shut down, the real numbers were actually already declining.
I think its a safe bet to view the "current numbers" as if they're the numbers from 1.5-2 weeks ago. It's likely the distancing and closures are already helping drastically - you'll just have to wait another week to see it be reported as such.
If this is correct, you should see a taper in the number of new cases a day here in about 4-7 days.
For instance, In Wuhan, China, there was about a 2 week delay until correct numbers were reported.
This means that when they closed down their city, at a perceived 300 new cases a day, it was actually around 3,000. When their reported "spike" came two weeks after shut down, the real numbers were actually already declining.
I think its a safe bet to view the "current numbers" as if they're the numbers from 1.5-2 weeks ago. It's likely the distancing and closures are already helping drastically - you'll just have to wait another week to see it be reported as such.
If this is correct, you should see a taper in the number of new cases a day here in about 4-7 days.
And they are coming to a community near you as their colleges aren't taking them back. That's the galling thing, where the heck were their parents in the midst of this.78669AG said:
I still think we are a full week to two weeks out. Thousands and thousands of kids seemed to have enjoyed spring break with one another at the beach
Where are the US numbers? New infections? New ICU admissions? New deaths?
The numbers are going to go up due to increased testing. No sense freaking out about that
That's not going to stop the increased panic we'll see from the initial numbers within the coming week. We'll see just "New reported cases" and "Deaths", and some will freak. Hopefully, Abbott doesn't do the same and shut the state down.Mountain_Ag said:
It's likely today's numbers are the numbers from 1.5-2 weeks ago.
For instance, In Wuhan, China, there was about a 2 week delay until correct numbers were reported.
This means that when they closed down their city, at a perceived 300 new cases a day, it was actually around 3,000. When their reported "spike" came two weeks after shut down, the real numbers were actually already declining.
I think its a safe bet to view the "current numbers" as if they're the numbers from 1.5-2 weeks ago. It's likely the distancing and closures are already helping drastically - you'll just have to wait another week to see it be reported as such.
If this is correct, you should see a taper in the number of new cases a day here in about 4-7 days.
I wish they could also report how many people got the regular flu and died during the same time period, for perspective.
A lot of parents don't have any control or don't care to have any control over their college-aged children.bay fan said:And they are coming to a community near you as their colleges aren't taking them back. That's the galling thing, where the heck were their parents in the midst of this.78669AG said:
I still think we are a full week to two weeks out. Thousands and thousands of kids seemed to have enjoyed spring break with one another at the beach
I agree the panic will be the root of the worst outcomes from this but I think that's a dangerous correlation. Someone I'm really close to just found something suspicious on a routine check-up scan, likely cancer. He's unable to receive the care and "next steps" he needs to attack this quickly because of the pending boom on the hospitals.Aust Ag said:That's not going to stop the increased panic we'll see from the initial numbers within the coming week. We'll see just "New reported cases" and "Deaths", and some will freak. Hopefully, Abbott doesn't do the same and shut the state down.Mountain_Ag said:
It's likely today's numbers are the numbers from 1.5-2 weeks ago.
For instance, In Wuhan, China, there was about a 2 week delay until correct numbers were reported.
This means that when they closed down their city, at a perceived 300 new cases a day, it was actually around 3,000. When their reported "spike" came two weeks after shut down, the real numbers were actually already declining.
I think its a safe bet to view the "current numbers" as if they're the numbers from 1.5-2 weeks ago. It's likely the distancing and closures are already helping drastically - you'll just have to wait another week to see it be reported as such.
If this is correct, you should see a taper in the number of new cases a day here in about 4-7 days.
I wish they could also report how many people got the regular flu and died during the same time period, for perspective.
We're equipped to handle the flu. Were not for COVID19. It's not always just the virus - its the strain the virus causes on our healthcare system that's the real danger.
They are technically adults, even if they do not act like it.
"Why don't you make 10 one louder?...This one goes to 11"
$ = control. (my dad called this the golden rule, he or she with the gold rules) A lot of parents are unwilling to exercise it. College kids aren't usually financially independent. Those beaches were Petri dishes on the sand. (My perspective is likely colored as I am sheltered in place to do my part since Monday).aggierogue said:A lot of parents don't have any control or don't care to have any control over their college-aged children.bay fan said:And they are coming to a community near you as their colleges aren't taking them back. That's the galling thing, where the heck were their parents in the midst of this.78669AG said:
I still think we are a full week to two weeks out. Thousands and thousands of kids seemed to have enjoyed spring break with one another at the beach
Just because I love my kids I would have forced them to come home and deal with life's little disappointments!
Very disturbing.
More people are getting tested. It makes perfect sense.
Of course, but disturbing none the less.
From another thread. This might explain why everyone in leadership is "overreacting" to this thing right now.
It's possible the numbers are due to increased testing. It's also possible its due to increased number of new infections.
At this point, we will never know, but it's best to prepare like its the latter.
At this point, we will never know, but it's best to prepare like its the latter.
78669AG said:
I still think we are a full week to two weeks out. Thousands and thousands of kids seemed to have enjoyed spring break with one another at the beach
Are you talking about coronavirus or the Herpes virus?
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this post reflect the opinions of Texags user bonfarr and are not to be accepted as facts or to be taken at face value.
that video scares the sheeet out of me.
The people who are testing positive today were infected over a week ago, maybe up to 2.5 weeks ago if you consider the delay in test results. It's one of the reasons to help justify the pleas for social distancing. On average they will infect 2.3 other people. So this spike is something we were totally expecting to see.
With the measures in place and people starting to take it more seriously over the last week or so we all hope to see the curve starting to turn a bit to the right instead of straight up.
With the measures in place and people starting to take it more seriously over the last week or so we all hope to see the curve starting to turn a bit to the right instead of straight up.
Powerful video whether or not you believe it.
Mountain_Ag said:
It's likely today's numbers are the numbers from 1.5-2 weeks ago.
For instance, In Wuhan, China, there was about a 2 week delay until correct numbers were reported.
This means that when they closed down their city, at a perceived 300 new cases a day, it was actually around 3,000. When their reported "spike" came two weeks after shut down, the real numbers were actually already declining.
I think its a safe bet to view the "current numbers" as if they're the numbers from 1.5-2 weeks ago. It's likely the distancing and closures are already helping drastically - you'll just have to wait another week to see it be reported as such.
If this is correct, you should see a taper in the number of new cases a day here in about 4-7 days.
I don't think there is any chance that we see a taper in #s in 4-7 days. I think it's much more likely, to the point of almost being impossible not to be, that we will see the exact opposite.
We haven't been doing much in the way of a lockdown for very long at all. We are just ramping up testing so the #s from that alone will continue to increase dramatically for a good while.
Add in the incubation period and the delay to onset of symptoms and the delay to first get tested (typically not until after symptom onset ) and then the delay to get the test results back, and I think we are at a minimum 2-3 weeks from seeing anything close to a peak in cases.
The spikes we're about to see are inevitable; this virus infection multiplies exponentially. We've seen it in every country. Add the increase in testing and we're about to see massive numbers. Key will be hospital admissions since it doesn't matter how many people are infected, it's how many require hospitalization that is our danger area.
What we need to look for is a taper in a few weeks if social distancing actually worked. If the numbers just rise and rise and rise then the panics are justified. If they taper off the social distancing is working.
What we need to look for is a taper in a few weeks if social distancing actually worked. If the numbers just rise and rise and rise then the panics are justified. If they taper off the social distancing is working.
Bob_Ag said:
It's possible the numbers are due to increased testing. It's also possible its due to increased number of new infections.
At this point, we will never know, but it's best to prepare like its the latter.
It's almost certainly both at this point. There is zero reason to believe that we are starting to experience a decrease in the number of infections at this point. It's much too early for that.
bay fan said:$ = control. (my dad called this the golden rule, he or she with the gold rules) A lot of parents are unwilling to exercise it. College kids aren't usually financially independent. Those beaches were Petri dishes on the sand. (My perspective is likely colored as I am sheltered in place to do my part since Monday).aggierogue said:A lot of parents don't have any control or don't care to have any control over their college-aged children.bay fan said:And they are coming to a community near you as their colleges aren't taking them back. That's the galling thing, where the heck were their parents in the midst of this.78669AG said:
I still think we are a full week to two weeks out. Thousands and thousands of kids seemed to have enjoyed spring break with one another at the beach
Just because I love my kids I would have forced them to come home and deal with life's little disappointments!
Yeah, We're probably both viewing this through our own personal lens. I put myself through school with no help. I have several friends who did as well. We were essentially young adults making our own decisions. Even many parents who are financially supporting their children's education don't care to play the "control" card.
I'll add that I was a complete moron during those years from a maturity standpoint. I really enjoyed partying and felt bulletproof. Even still, I wasn't a complete idiot when it came to risk-taking.I hope I would have been smarter than some of these kids we see completely throwing caution to the wind.
Yeah, we were at Disneyworld 8 days ago. Every day that I wake up not feeling sick is a another giant deep breath taken.Moxley said:
The people who are testing positive today were infected over a week ago, maybe up to 2.5 weeks ago if you consider the delay in test results. It's one of the reasons to help justify the pleas for social distancing. On average they will infect 2.3 other people. So this spike is something we were totally expecting to see.
With the measures in place and people starting to take it more seriously over the last week or so we all hope to see the curve starting to turn a bit to the right instead of straight up.
Mountain_Ag said:
It's likely today's numbers are the numbers from 1.5-2 weeks ago.
For instance, In Wuhan, China, there was about a 2 week delay until correct numbers were reported.
This means that when they closed down their city, at a perceived 300 new cases a day, it was actually around 3,000. When their reported "spike" came two weeks after shut down, the real numbers were actually already declining.
I think its a safe bet to view the "current numbers" as if they're the numbers from 1.5-2 weeks ago. It's likely the distancing and closures are already helping drastically - you'll just have to wait another week to see it be reported as such.
If this is correct, you should see a taper in the number of new cases a day here in about 4-7 days.
Way too optimistic.
The former head of the FDA says late April for our peak.
We didn't get to 300 deaths today. To me, that's a very encouraging sign.
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