We may catch italy by end of day and more than half of that is just New York


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Keep the raw numbers in perspective: Doc Reveille

Johnny2Fan said:

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Doesn't mean it's spreading, just more have been tested for it.

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At best it was spreading until very recently when we started getting serious stay at home orders. Those cases wont turn positive for symptoms for a week or so with serious complications following.


We need this to be seasonal, like the flu and bring on the heat wave

Did you mean Spain?

jt16 said:

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Did you mean Spain?

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jamey said:

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Johnny2Fan said:

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Doesn't mean it's spreading, just more have been tested for it.

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At best it was spreading until very recently when we started getting serious stay at home orders. Those cases wont turn positive for symptoms for a week or so with serious complications following.


We need this to be seasonal, like the flu and bring on the heat wave

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Can you elaborate on that timeline? Are you saying it could take a full week until you start feeling really bad?

I'm worried I might have it and it's been about 5 days. Very fatigued, some shortness of breath and chest pain, headaches, no fever, no cough. I'm just wondering when I'm out of the woods or over the hump on this.

jt16 said:

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Did you mean Spain?

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No, I mean Italy. We will have more new cases than them on a daily basis soon

Like possibly today

Pumpkinhead said:

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jamey said:

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Johnny2Fan said:

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Doesn't mean it's spreading, just more have been tested for it.

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At best it was spreading until very recently when we started getting serious stay at home orders. Those cases wont turn positive for symptoms for a week or so with serious complications following.


We need this to be seasonal, like the flu and bring on the heat wave

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Live in Panama (tropics) and this thing is spreading easily down here. Went from 137 to 200 cases just yesterday (we are about 10 days since first reported case).

Experts have always said warm weather helping is just guessing, as of now based on what I am seeing in a tropical climate, I am very skeptical seasonal changes are going to
Matter much.

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What tempuatures are you seeing?

Scientific article I read said SRS coronavirus tapered off at 38c..which is like 100


Humidity helps too

But correct, I'm just hoping Covid is similar. Nobody knows for sure yet

JB99 said:

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jamey said:

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Johnny2Fan said:

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Doesn't mean it's spreading, just more have been tested for it.

---

At best it was spreading until very recently when we started getting serious stay at home orders. Those cases wont turn positive for symptoms for a week or so with serious complications following.


We need this to be seasonal, like the flu and bring on the heat wave

---

Can you elaborate on that timeline? Are you saying it could take a full week until you start feeling really bad?

I'm worried I might have it and it's been about 5 days. Very fatigued, some shortness of breath and chest pain, headaches, no fever, no cough. I'm just wondering when I'm out of the woods or over the hump on this.

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Former CDC director: There's a long war ahead and our Covid-19 response must adapt

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-response-must-adapt-frieden-analysis/index.html

Today's severe cases are in people infected 10 to 14 days ago who got sick five to six days ago and have steadily progressed to severe illness. That means cases will continue to skyrocket for weeks after spread stops

proudaggie02 said:

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jamey said:

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jt16 said:

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Did you mean Spain?

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No, I mean Italy. We will have more new cases than them on a daily basis soon

Like possibly today

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Your thoughts, considering America's population is roughly 5.45x greater than that of Italy, when also considering timelines and testing numbers?

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That's the big question. We **** the bed like a 3 year old as far as being prepared and early testing to quarantine known cases.

That said it's looking more and more like the spread is passed heavily by those with no symptoms at all.

So the South Korea method was the way to go. Set up drive thru testing for the masses.


Which makes our method a big unknown. We dont know how bad it is, how many are infected but I dont think it's a stretch to assume our numbers greatly underestimate the number of infected.

I took my daughter out of daycare on March 12th and quarantined my household Monday but I also have a wife and a toddler who are potentially high risk. I've since become far less concerned about the toddler but my wife is higher risk.


So nobody comes into or out of our house. We made a food run yesterday at 8am in anticipation of the chaos that I figure will come about again as states lockdown and new cease numbers sore

If NY was a country, it would have the 8th most cases.

jamey said:

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jt16 said:

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Did you mean Spain?

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No, I mean Italy. We will have more new cases than them on a daily basis soon

Like possibly today

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Gotcha. I thought you meant total cases, not new cases.

Bruce Almighty said:

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If NY was a country, it would have the 8th most cases.

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New York is comparable in size to a European country.

jt16 said:

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jamey said:

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jt16 said:

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Did you mean Spain?

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No, I mean Italy. We will have more new cases than them on a daily basis soon

Like possibly today

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Gotcha. I thought you meant total cases, not new cases.

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Total cases may take some time but we will pass them there too I would think. Probably sooner than we'd like to think

Bruce Almighty said:

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If NY was a country, it would have the 8th most cases.

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NY is going to be a nightmare. They have so many things going against them that most of the rest of the country doesn't have, and even with that their local leadership was slow to respond.

Yes. So much population density.

True, but no European country of comparable size has the same number of cases.

Safe at Home said:

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DTP02 said:

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Bruce Almighty said:

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If NY was a country, it would have the 8th most cases.

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NY is going to be a nightmare. They have so many things going against them that most of the rest of the country doesn't have, and even with that their local leadership was slow to respond.

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Jennifer Rubin said that more Republicans than Democrats would die of CV because Fox News wasn't causing sufficient panic. I wish I could bet her my life savings on that.

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That's a funny way of looking it at.


I've long thought our mainstream media industry was doing a disservice to the purpose of a 4th estate in a democracy.


That goes for FoxNews, CNN, MSNBC...etc.

jamey said:

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Johnny2Fan said:

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Doesn't mean it's spreading, just more have been tested for it.

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At best it was spreading until very recently when we started getting serious stay at home orders. Those cases wont turn positive for symptoms for a week or so with serious complications following.


We need this to be seasonal, like the flu and bring on the heat wave

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We won't know how much social distancing is helping until about April 5th-15th.

These infections numbers were already baked in before the changes.

Grapesoda2525 said:

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jamey said:

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Johnny2Fan said:

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Doesn't mean it's spreading, just more have been tested for it.

---

At best it was spreading until very recently when we started getting serious stay at home orders. Those cases wont turn positive for symptoms for a week or so with serious complications following.


We need this to be seasonal, like the flu and bring on the heat wave

---

We won't know how much social distancing is helping until about April 5th-15th.

These infections numbers were already baked in before the changes.

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Not quite that long. We're essentially 8 days in now from when restrictions started to come down (although they've obviously gotten stronger over that time). Time table is 2-3 weeks for disease to fully run it's course depending on how sick you are. If we don't start seeing a leveling off in the period of March 27th - April 5th we'll be in trouble.

I'm betting that we will though, and mitigation effects will start to show up, despite the idiots out partying.

Bruce Almighty said:

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True, but no European country of comparable size has the same number of cases.

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Spain has roughly the same population as New York and has twice as many cases. Italy has 50% more people but over 4 times the number of cases.

Of course it could change in the next few weeks but right now Italy and Spain have it much worse than New York.

Gumby said:

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Bruce Almighty said:

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True, but no European country of comparable size has the same number of cases.

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Spain has roughly the same population as New York and has twice as many cases. Italy has 50% more people but over 4 times the number of cases.

Of course it could change in the next few weeks but right now Italy and Spain have it much worse than New York.

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Huh? Spain has a population of 48 million, NY has a population of 19 million.

Quote:

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Spain has roughly the same population as New York and has twice as many cases. Italy has 50% more people but over 4 times the number of cases.

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Mordred said:

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Grapesoda2525 said:

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jamey said:

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Johnny2Fan said:

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Doesn't mean it's spreading, just more have been tested for it.

---

At best it was spreading until very recently when we started getting serious stay at home orders. Those cases wont turn positive for symptoms for a week or so with serious complications following.


We need this to be seasonal, like the flu and bring on the heat wave

---

We won't know how much social distancing is helping until about April 5th-15th.

These infections numbers were already baked in before the changes.

---

Not quite that long. We're essentially 8 days in now from when restrictions started to come down (although they've obviously gotten stronger over that time). Time table is 2-3 weeks for disease to fully run it's course depending on how sick you are. If we don't start seeing a leveling off in the period of March 27th - April 5th we'll be in trouble.

I'm betting that we will though, and mitigation effects will start to show up, despite the idiots out partying.

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Sounds good but only groups that tested early and often and isolated or went into strict general population quarantines saw the numbers taper off

I think we're behind the curve on testing and everything associated with knowing who is positive and we just started more strict quarantine behaviors. And the testing is still crippled

Bruce Almighty said:

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Gumby said:

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Bruce Almighty said:

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True, but no European country of comparable size has the same number of cases.

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Spain has roughly the same population as New York and has twice as many cases. Italy has 50% more people but over 4 times the number of cases.

Of course it could change in the next few weeks but right now Italy and Spain have it much worse than New York.

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Huh? Spain has a population of 48 million, NY has a population of 19 million.

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You are right. I got New York and California mixed up. Looks like the situation in NYC is already approaching dangerous territory.