I found this graph really interesting today. It's one that I've posted before, but this time the author marked the dates when countries went to lockdown. This graph attempts to peg everybody starting at 10 deaths and see how they grow.
Since a lot of people ask, the graph is on the logarithmic scale because the typical initial growth of a virus is exponential, since the number of new infecteds every day depends on how many people are infected. On a logarithmic curve, you will see exponential functions graph as a straight line, so when they break that linearity is when you can see the exponential growth weakening. Another advantage is that it's easier to view the data because exponential functions make the high end of the scale so high the small end of the scale becomes very compressed.
Interesting observations:
1. China quarantined when they had 30 deaths. You can see that the growth of deaths remains the same exponential rate for a good 10 days after the quarantine, before the curve starts flattening. That would make sense, because of what we know about the incubation time for symptoms and then the delay from onset of symptoms to dying from severe cases.
2. It can be easier to understand why Italy waiting until 800 people had died would make their situation more dire than China, and why they have already passed them in total deaths. They kept that same 33% per day increase pace until then. It does seem that their rate has slowed, even though the numbers are growing, probably due to the social distancing they were already doing before total lockdown.
3. I've seen a lot of people hand wave the dramatic rise in US confirmed cases as simply a result of testing more, but it is worth noting that our deaths are increasing exponentially and for some reason seemed to have accelerated based on the initial pace. I'm hopeful that we'll see a flattening soon, similar to the way Italy flattened out before a full lockdown, but I wonder if NYC is the factor that is being missed. They were pretty late to lock down, despite being a hot bed. Mayor DeBlasio was going to workout at the YMCA less than a week ago. Given their density and reliance on public transportation, I could see US's stats looking quite bad for the next couple weeks, primarily due to NYC. If they haven't done it already, I believe they're close to half the cases in the US.
4. Spain, France, have not seen any slow down in the exponential growth of deaths, since they are still in that 10-day waiting period before the results would begin to show.
Since a lot of people ask, the graph is on the logarithmic scale because the typical initial growth of a virus is exponential, since the number of new infecteds every day depends on how many people are infected. On a logarithmic curve, you will see exponential functions graph as a straight line, so when they break that linearity is when you can see the exponential growth weakening. Another advantage is that it's easier to view the data because exponential functions make the high end of the scale so high the small end of the scale becomes very compressed.
Interesting observations:
1. China quarantined when they had 30 deaths. You can see that the growth of deaths remains the same exponential rate for a good 10 days after the quarantine, before the curve starts flattening. That would make sense, because of what we know about the incubation time for symptoms and then the delay from onset of symptoms to dying from severe cases.
2. It can be easier to understand why Italy waiting until 800 people had died would make their situation more dire than China, and why they have already passed them in total deaths. They kept that same 33% per day increase pace until then. It does seem that their rate has slowed, even though the numbers are growing, probably due to the social distancing they were already doing before total lockdown.
3. I've seen a lot of people hand wave the dramatic rise in US confirmed cases as simply a result of testing more, but it is worth noting that our deaths are increasing exponentially and for some reason seemed to have accelerated based on the initial pace. I'm hopeful that we'll see a flattening soon, similar to the way Italy flattened out before a full lockdown, but I wonder if NYC is the factor that is being missed. They were pretty late to lock down, despite being a hot bed. Mayor DeBlasio was going to workout at the YMCA less than a week ago. Given their density and reliance on public transportation, I could see US's stats looking quite bad for the next couple weeks, primarily due to NYC. If they haven't done it already, I believe they're close to half the cases in the US.
4. Spain, France, have not seen any slow down in the exponential growth of deaths, since they are still in that 10-day waiting period before the results would begin to show.