The number of cases in New York over-doubled since yesterday.

10K yesterday
22.7K now

They also have 10X as many cases as Washington which is at 1.8K which was leading just a few days ago.

I assume NYC will be the hardest hit due to a large heavy populated city and popular mass transit, compared to places like Houston, Dallas or Atlanta where more people drive themselves to work and don't live packed on top of each other.

Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


New York 22,717
Washington 1,793
California 1,550
New Jersey 1,327

#10 Texas 567

They're also testing rapidly which means more results.

What screwed over New York compared to Washington is how the outbreak started.

Washington started with 1 person, guy from Wuhan who flew in on January 15th. It is thought he only infected 1-2 people so the virus spread very slowly. It wasn't until the nursing home that they realized what was going on.

In New York it probably started the same way (genetic analysis said it likely came from Iran), but they got hit by a super spreader, that ******* lawyer who kept going all over the place even while showing symptoms. It was estimated he exposed 4-5 thousand people. So just like with Italy, it started appearing all over the place rather from a single point like in Washington and having to work its way out.

I am sure you are right about that as well.

Yesterday, Houston was only checking those over 65 and now they said they will test any age, but you have to call in to get pre-screened and you must have an underlying medical condition along with shortness of breath, fever, etc.

So they are only going to test people who might die. So normally healthy people who probably are sick can't get tested.

Keegan99 said:

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I imagine it was more than just the lawyer. They likely got carpet bombed by cases from Europe.

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Oh I'm sure there were others, but he is the one known super spreader.

Isn't the the main issue how many people require admittance to a hospital not how many test positive and recover at home? No need to fixate on a gross number.

Additionally - NY is clearly a hot spot for reasons detailed above. Hopefully the rest of the country does not have to employ the same mitigation tactics required in NYC for the same period of time.

The number that require admission is proportional to the gross number.

So if the gross number skyrockets it's only a matter of time before the hospitals see a tsunami.

I feel so fortunate. We spent 5 nights in NYC - staying in Time Square about 4 weeks ago.

No symptoms yet so I'm not too worried that we contracted it there. But to think how close we could have been had our trip been 2 weeks later.

I think you could be looking for the foreseeable future NYC looking like Tokyo, with everyone walking around in mask...all the time.

I was in NYC just 2 weeks ago (my 14 days is up tomorrow) and so far no symptoms. I consider myself very blessed at this point.

Keegan99 said:

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NYC is still running mass transit.

Manhattan has a density of 70k per square mile. Houston has 3.5k.

They're going to struggle.

My fear now is people fleeing NYC and super-seeding the rest of the country.

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The country has been seeded for a while now. We just don't see it because of the lack of testing.

NY is the only state testing at high levels and (surprise!) they have 10s of thousands of cases now.

No, Washington has been testing at scale. See above.

UW Virology has run tens of thousands of tests and seen consistently under 8% positive results.

Manhattan is also right in the optimal climate conditions. Mild average temps between 40 and 50F, low/average humidity.

I wouldnt be surprised to see after all this that the areas worst hit are those with high population density, world hub for travel/commerce, and the optimal climate conditions.

Northern Italy fits this category with a lot of travel from China.

Keegan99 said:

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No, Washington has been testing at scale. See above.

UW Virology has run tens of thousands of tests and seen consistently under 8% positive results.

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Ah that's great news. I knew they were testing but I thought that had dropped off in recent days.

Considering that NYC is still focusing their tests on those who need hospital intervention, it's pretty eye opening to think of how many people truly have coronavirus in NYC. Probably 100,000 to 200,000 would be my guess. It's just hard to know how many people get it without being symptomatic.

The more I think about death rate, the more I think the actual number is more of a function of what the age demographics of who is getting sick versus how deadly the disease is (until hospitals can't keep up with the treatments, in the case of Italy). If the infecteds are younger, healthier, death rate will seem miniscule. If the virus hits a couple nursing homes, the death rate will sky rocket. However it seems that across the world the death rate by age and comorbidity is pretty consistent.

HotardAg07 said:

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Considering that NYC is still focusing their tests on those who need hospital intervention, it's pretty eye opening to think of how many people truly have coronavirus in NYC. Probably 100,000 to 200,000 would be my guess. It's just hard to know how many people get it without being symptomatic.

The more I think about death rate, the more I think the actual number is more of a function of what the age demographics of who is getting sick versus how deadly the disease is (until hospitals can't keep up with the treatments, in the case of Italy). If the infecteds are younger, healthier, death rate will seem miniscule. If the virus hits a couple nursing homes, the death rate will sky rocket. However it seems that across the world the death rate by age and comorbidity is pretty consistent.

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We are doing the exact same thing in Texas.

Have you compared the numbers?

What people thought was rumors and ver reaction to the arenas used to house patients in China is coming to NYC. Dr Gottleib this morning said they better be preparing the NYC Convention Center to house patients. That would be 10K plus. Scary.

Diggity said:

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Have you compared the numbers?

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Yes.

Two days ago my father came down with what his doctor said was almost certainly Coronavirus. He has the exact same symptoms that BallerStaf003 has, even down to the strange pain in his eyes. He had direct contact with a man 6 days before that died yesterday morning of CoronaVirus. He cannot get tested because he is currently not requiring hospitalization.

I know another guy that has the exact same story minus the dead guy.


We are not testing people that are not in need of hospitalization. At least not in Williamson, Bell, Travis, or Burnet counties.

Shutdown the place and aerial spray disinfectant on the hot spots
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/three-ways-china-is-using-drones-to-fight-coronavirus/

Not what I meant.

Was talking more about confirmed cases

Diggity said:

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Not what I meant.

Was talking more about confirmed cases

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Oh OK. I was talking about the fact that they are testing the same people we are testing.

Gotcha. Best of luck to your dad.

My dad is basically a poster child for guys that do not need to get this virus. Trying my hardest to get him to take this seriously.

agsalaska said:

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Diggity said:

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Have you compared the numbers?

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Yes.

Two days ago my father came down with what his doctor said was almost certainly Coronavirus. He has the exact same symptoms that BallerStaf003 has, even down to the strange pain in his eyes. He had direct contact with a man 6 days before that died yesterday morning of CoronaVirus. He cannot get tested because he is currently not requiring hospitalization.

I know another guy that has the exact same story minus the dead guy.


We are not testing people that are not in need of hospitalization. At least not in Williamson, Bell, Travis, or Burnet counties.

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My wife did the Baylor S&W online test and they told her to go to a drive through location to get a test. Then the next morning about 15 minutes before her appt they e-mailed her and said not to come in, and just self isolate. She went anyway hoping to get a test, but they denied her and said that she probably just had pneumonia. She's had pneumonia 15 times or so, and is positive it's not that.

Personally, I don't think it's CV, but she did meet the symptoms criteria to get a test at least.