COVID Update from Panama (Tropical Climate)

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Pumpkinhead
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AG
I live in this country. Possibly of interest to some because the hope that maybe warm weather (seasonal changes) will help slow this thing down.

Panama has a population of about 4 million, It reported its first confirmed COVID case on March 8th. The Panama government has appeared to be very proactive and aggressive in following the 'social distancing' playbook the past 2 weeks, closing all schools and universities, cancelling all sports and public events, closing all non-essential businesses, closing all travel in and out of the country, forcing as much work-from-home as possible, latest twist tonight is now you can't be out on the street in your car unless a) alone, b) going to the grocery store, work, hospital, or pharmacy, and c) if a store run then the last digit of your SSN and current time of day has to match your govt approved time slot (e.g., if your last digit of SSN is a '0' then you are only allowed to be out on the street between noon and 1 pm to get groceries. That is your 1 hour daily allowed-out-of-house time slot.)

I'm probably missing a few restrictions. Each night around 6 pm here the Ministry of Health gives their daily update and typically has added a couple of more restrictions on top of the restrictions list. It has felt somewhat like that frog in slowly heated water analogy. Day-by-day a tightening of the noose. Unfortunately, like else where, there apparently is a notable segment of the population who have blown off being socially distant and have been continuing to do house parties, hit the beaches, etc. Thus, as the case counts have continued growing, the government is being forced to get more and more serious about enforcing the rules and getting more cops after them.

Also Unfortunately, thus far it sure seems like this COVID thing is pretty dang contagious, even in a tropical climate. Here are the total confirmed cases updates that have been reported each day:

Total Cumulative Confirmed Cases:
Day 1 (March 8th): 1
Day 2: 8
Day 3: 14
Day 4: 27
Day 5: 36
Day 6: 43
Day 7: 55
Day 8: 69
Day 9: 86
Day 10: 109
Day 11: 137
Day 12: 200
Day 13: 245
Day 14: 313

There have been 3 confirmed deaths thus far down here due to this. 12 of the 310 current cases (313 subtracting the 3 deaths) are in ICU.


GuatemalanAg
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Definitely not affected by the warmer climate as we all hoped for. Maybe it tends to die on clothes, boxes and other surfaces but not human contact. Us latins tends to greet folks via kisses, hugs and elaborate handshakes and that is not good. Down here in Guatemala we are at 18 cases and one fatality so far
Stay safe pumpkinhead!
Exsurge Domine
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That growth is actually very mild, and indicative of spread being somewhat slower by the weather.
Zobel
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AG
28% from day 5 on. Right there with everyone else.
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Exsurge Domine
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k2aggie07 said:

28% from day 5 on. Right there with everyone else.


I had read early on the average daily growth rate was somewhere around 34-37% in Iran, Italy, Spain, etc
Zobel
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AG
Likely more reflecting testing ramp up than disease spread. If you're starting early, you might see the whole trend.
Exsurge Domine
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k2aggie07 said:

Likely more reflecting testing ramp up than disease spread. If you're starting early, you might see the whole trend.


The graphs I have seen typically start at "days since 100th case" or "since 10th death" or so, have you seen the same?
Zobel
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AG
I don't know man, sorry.
Exsurge Domine
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k2aggie07 said:

I don't know man, sorry.


Most don't start on zero, most graphs I've seen say something like "days since x number of y-event" I think, date since 10th death is commonly used.

What I'm trying to say is I think going by the same metric as the other info I've seen it looks like this is spreading more slowly, especially given that 34-37 number I've seen
agsalaska
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Exsurge Domine said:

That growth is actually very mild, and indicative of spread being somewhat slower by the weather.
Really? It looks exactly like every other country. It is doubling roughly every three days.
I don’t say this in a braggedocious way. But it’s true. I’ve been right about everything.

-Donald J Trump
-9/22/2025



Pumpkinhead
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GuatemalanAg said:

Definitely not affected by the warmer climate as we all hoped for. Maybe it tends to die on clothes, boxes and other surfaces but not human contact. Us latins tends to greet folks via kisses, hugs and elaborate handshakes and that is not good. Down here in Guatemala we are at 18 cases and one fatality so far
Stay safe pumpkinhead!


Thanks.

My non-expert opinion watching these Panama case counts thus far is, sure, maybe on surfaces outside in hot sunny humid climate, okay maybe this type of thing typically decays a little faster.

But if left on surfaces in climate controlled buildings (like elevator buttons in apartment buildings or shopping cart handles) or if people are up close in each other's personal spaces sharing air, the weather conditions ain't going to matter. You'll still need to be doing all the hygiene rules and social distancing things if you want to slow the spread of this thing down. Whether North Pole or tropics.
McInnis
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AG
Something I've wondered about - why does any virus care about ambient temperature/humidity when they thrive inside warm, moist human bodies?
DeWrecking Crew
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Exactly...telling everyone to stay inside in the temperature range that the virus lives the longest seems counterintuitive. If infected shouldn't we be sitting outside by a fire pit, 6 feet away from each other, drinking 70% moonshine?
GuatemalanAg
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Pumpkinhead said:

GuatemalanAg said:

Definitely not affected by the warmer climate as we all hoped for. Maybe it tends to die on clothes, boxes and other surfaces but not human contact. Us latins tends to greet folks via kisses, hugs and elaborate handshakes and that is not good. Down here in Guatemala we are at 18 cases and one fatality so far
Stay safe pumpkinhead!


Thanks.

My non-expert opinion watching these Panama case counts thus far is, sure, maybe on surfaces outside in hot sunny humid climate, okay maybe this type of thing typically decays a little faster.

But if left on surfaces in climate controlled buildings (like elevator buttons in apartment buildings or shopping cart handles) or if people are up close in each other's personal spaces sharing air, the weather conditions ain't going to matter. You'll still need to be doing all the hygiene rules and social distancing things if you want to slow the spread of this thing down. Whether North Pole or tropics.
That makes perfect sense
Bruce Almighty
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AG
Viruses decrease in the summer because we aren't spending so much time huddled up together. There's a reason the flu drops around Spring Break. The sun is a natural sanitizer and a lot of viruses don't like high heat / high humidity. If people in Panama are staying indoors, then the weather doesn't matter.
Gizzards
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Exsurge Domine said:

That growth is actually very mild, and indicative of spread being somewhat slower by the weather.

Except that it is not. Doubling every 2-3 days and worsening.
Pumpkinhead
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AG
Just another quick Panama update, 2 more deaths this morning from COVID so Panama has now had 5.

One was a 92 year old (understandable), but the other death reported today was a 13-year old. No information given if there were other underlying conditions.
Beat40
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Here's the questions I have because I'm not familiar with Panama:

What are the living conditions like? Are they more like most European / Asian countries where people in cities are stacked on top of each other or is like a lot of US where cities (NYC exception) are more spread out?

What is the general cleanliness of the Panama?

What are the general hygiene practices in Panama?

I'm just trying to learn about the country a little bit because I feel most people would think Panama is similar like one of its Central American sisters like Costa Rica, Nicaragua, or Columbia.
Exsurge Domine
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Gizzards said:

Exsurge Domine said:

That growth is actually very mild, and indicative of spread being somewhat slower by the weather.

Except that it is not. Doubling every 2-3 days and worsening.


Very sorry if I mislead anyone, was not my intention. I had been working off of the assumption that under 33% daily increase or so was under the line
The Shank Ag
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My mom cruised through the Canal the second week of this month but did not stop in Panama. Also been home for 12 days with no symptoms. Should be in the clear
SRBS
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Pumpkinhead said:

I live in this country. Possibly of interest to some because the hope that maybe warm weather (seasonal changes) will help slow this thing down.

Panama has a population of about 4 million, It reported its first confirmed COVID case on March 8th. The Panama government has appeared to be very proactive and aggressive in following the 'social distancing' playbook the past 2 weeks, closing all schools and universities, cancelling all sports and public events, closing all non-essential businesses, closing all travel in and out of the country, forcing as much work-from-home as possible, latest twist tonight is now you can't be out on the street in your car unless a) alone, b) going to the grocery store, work, hospital, or pharmacy, and c) if a store run then the last digit of your SSN and current time of day has to match your govt approved time slot (e.g., if your last digit of SSN is a '0' then you are only allowed to be out on the street between noon and 1 pm to get groceries. That is your 1 hour daily allowed-out-of-house time slot.)

I'm probably missing a few restrictions. Each night around 6 pm here the Ministry of Health gives their daily update and typically has added a couple of more restrictions on top of the restrictions list. It has felt somewhat like that frog in slowly heated water analogy. Day-by-day a tightening of the noose. Unfortunately, like else where, there apparently is a notable segment of the population who have blown off being socially distant and have been continuing to do house parties, hit the beaches, etc. Thus, as the case counts have continued growing, the government is being forced to get more and more serious about enforcing the rules and getting more cops after them.

Also Unfortunately, thus far it sure seems like this COVID thing is pretty dang contagious, even in a tropical climate. Here are the total confirmed cases updates that have been reported each day:

Total Cumulative Confirmed Cases:
Day 1 (March 8th): 1
Day 2: 8
Day 3: 14
Day 4: 27
Day 5: 36
Day 6: 43
Day 7: 55
Day 8: 69
Day 9: 86
Day 10: 109
Day 11: 137
Day 12: 200
Day 13: 245
Day 14: 313

There have been 3 confirmed deaths thus far down here due to this. 12 of the 310 current cases (313 subtracting the 3 deaths) are in ICU.


I lived there in the 70's when a kid. Fort Gulick and then Fort Davis
Pumpkinhead
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Beat40 said:

Here's the questions I have because I'm not familiar with Panama:

What are the living conditions like? Are they more like most European / Asian countries where people in cities are stacked on top of each other or is like a lot of US where cities (NYC exception) are more spread out?

What is the general cleanliness of the Panama?

What are the general hygiene practices in Panama?

I'm just trying to learn about the country a little bit because I feel most people would think Panama is similar like one of its Central American sisters like Costa Rica, Nicaragua, or Columbia.


Have lived here 20 years. Panama is pretty nice. Pretty good infrastructure, healthcare is mix of private and socialized, the private healthcare which middle/upper class primarily use is good. currency is the U.S. dollar with stable democratic government, large expat community including retirees from States and Europe. There are some high density areas in Panama City like any big city, with bad areas and good areas. Some of the good areas, if I told you it was a neighborhood in South Florida, you maybe wouldn't tell the difference for awhile. A lot of the country is rain forest, agriculture, etc.

Not a 'first world' country but much better than what the typical American might think of as '3rd World developing'. I guess you could call it like a 'Second World, decently developed' Sort of place.

BigOil
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AG
I was in Costa Rica spring break and it was not hot.

Temps barely into the upper 70s/ lower 80s on the coast.

I'd wait until we hit the 90 F/ 90% humidity to see an impact
GE
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Safe at Home said:

Something I've wondered about - why does any virus care about ambient temperature/humidity when they thrive inside warm, moist human bodies?
Could be something to do with the way the droplets move in the air when people sneeze or cough. WAG but maybe higher humidity and heat limit it more than lower humidity and temperature.
Pumpkinhead
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AG
Most parts of Panama are hotter than Costa Rica. In Panama City, almost always hits high 80's to low 90's during day here, every day of the year. You want temperatures topping out in the 70's, gotta go to the higher altitude areas close to the Costa Rican border.
CapCityAg89
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Bruce Almighty said:

Viruses decrease in the summer because we aren't spending so much time huddled up together. There's a reason the flu drops around Spring Break. The sun is a natural sanitizer and a lot of viruses don't like high heat / high humidity. If people in Panama are staying indoors, then the weather doesn't matter.
Bumping this as it bears repeating and seems to get lost whenever this discussion comes up.

The actual temp is not the factor, the way the temp impacts behavior is, was and always will be the factor. During "cold", people go to bars, movies, malls - indoors, closer together, recycled air. During "warm", people go camping, to beaches, water skiing, play golf - outdoors, further apart, under UV rays. It has zero to do with temperature.
DeWrecking Crew
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I don't think that is entirely true, studies have shown the hotter a surface is the less time the virus is viable. For example, if the air temperature is 95, and it's sunny, the surface temperature of a metal railing for example will be over 120 if in the sunlight, at that temperature the virus only lives for like 20-30 minutes.
Exsurge Domine
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DeWrecking Crew said:

I don't think that is entirely true, studies have shown the hotter a surface is the less time the virus is viable. For example, if the air temperature is 95, and it's sunny, the surface temperature of a metal railing for example will be over 120 if in the sunlight, at that temperature the virus only lives for like 20-30 minutes.


Not only that but humidity makes it harder for aerosolized virus particles to stay in the air, is what I heard dr manny say on Fox News
Windy City Ag
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https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/new-study-says-high-temperature-and-high-relative-humidity-significantly-reduce-spread-of-covid-19/703418

Quote:

"High temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19." An increase of just one degree Celsius and 1% relative humidity increase substantially lower the virus's transmission, according to the data analyzed by the researchers.

The study is the latest in a limited but growing body of research, not all of which has been peer-reviewed, that examines the effect of weather on the spread of the SARS-Cov-2 virus, which causes the COVID-19 illness.



Ranger222
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What people need to understand is yes, there may be some effect from heat and humidity, but other factors like population density are going to play a much larger role in the spread. Unfortunately Miami won't be spared during this. The virus just doesn't migrate like an animal to cold places. Heat and humidity can help partially reduce transmission, but there are other variables that go into that equation as well.
Pumpkinhead
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AG
An update to the numbers here in Panama. Looks like the spread here is still growing pretty fast, though hopefully all the social distancing measures quickly taken by the Panama government over the past couple of weeks will begin to show pay off over the next several days.

Total Cumulative Confirmed Cases
Day 1 (March 8th): 1
Day 2: 8
Day 3: 14
Day 4: 27
Day 5: 36
Day 6: 43
Day 7: 55
Day 8: 69
Day 9: 86
Day 10: 109
Day 11: 137
Day 12: 200
Day 13: 245
Day 14: 313
Day 15: 345
Day 16: 443

Total Cumulative Confirmed deaths
Day 1 (March 8th): 1
Day 2: 1
Day 3: 1
Day 4: 1
Day 5: 1
Day 6: 1
Day 7: 1
Day 8: 1
Day 9: 1
Day 10: 1
Day 11: 1
Day 12: 1
Day 13: 3
Day 14: 3
Day 15: 6
Day 16: 7

Of the 445 cases as of today (Day 16), 49 had to be hospitalized. And 19 of those 49 people had to go to ICU. And 7 of those people died. Death rate to confirmed cases is 1.58%. One of the 7 deaths thus far was a 13-year old (don't know details of any prior conditions).

The entire country is now in a pretty tight lockdown, with all borders closed.
Exsurge Domine
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I wanted to check back in here...how are things in Panama? Can you give us an update?
aggiesed8r
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AG
I was listening to a virologist on the news recently about how in hot/humid summer like conditions, typical viruses spread less. More UVA/UVB/radiation and humidity (heavier droplets that don't Hang in the air) result in less virus and less virus spread. One can certainly still get the Flu in summer.
Pumpkinhead
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AG
Thanks for asking. I can give ya'll an update in a bit when at my PC of how things have been going in Panama, Including the daily Cases/deaths numbers.
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