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From what I understand the key difference is that H1N1 was like a typical flu and very rarely required hospitalization.

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Yeah, 60 million and 10K deaths implies 0.01% mortality rate while we are hoping for less than 1% in this case. 60 million * 1% = 600,000 deaths. Different math.

Windy City Ag said:

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From what I understand the key difference is that H1N1 was like a typical flu and very rarely required hospitalization.

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Yeah, 60 million and 10K deaths implies 0.01% mortality rate while we are hoping for less than 1% in this case. 60 million * 1% = 600,000 deaths. Different math.

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Is the mortality rate confirmed at 1%? What is it in South Korea?

This is a long read but really good summary of the H1N1 outbreak.

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/cdcresponse.htm

There were some community-led school closures and social distancing campaigns. But there were also effective vaccines developed by October 2009 (first patient was diagnosed in April).

Also from that report:

Early results of an antibody study conducted by CDC indicated that children had no existing cross-reactive antibody to the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus, while about one-third of adults older than 60 years of age had cross-reactive antibody against the 2009 H1N1 flu virus. One possible explanation for this pre-existing antibody in older adults was that they may have had previous exposure, either through infection or vaccination, to an influenza A H1N1 virus that was more closely related to the 2009 H1N1 flu virus than contemporary seasonal influenza A (H1N1) viruses are.

You must have been talking with my Dad? He was saying the same thing the other day. I think its very difficult to compare these types of events. Honestly, I'm not completely sure we are doing the right thing as a country. Medical professionals are by and large in agreement with the measures that are being taken. That's what I will go with because that isn't my area.

What concerns me is that you can spread it for several days before showing symptoms. Some people never show symptoms, but have the virus and are spreading it.

H1N1 is a type of flu and we've known a lot about it for decades. Covid 19 is a new coronavirus, which we know very little.

The first H1N1 of 2009 case was in April 2009 and there was a vaccine by October, before the following year's flue season. There is obviously no vaccine or near term timetable for a vaccine for Covid 19.

RCR06 said:

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You must have been talking with my Dad? He was saying the same thing the other day. I think its very difficult to compare these types of events. Honestly, I'm not completely sure we are doing the right thing as a country. Medical professionals are by and large in agreement with the measures that are being taken. That's what I will go with because that isn't my area.

What concerns me is that you can spread it for several days before showing symptoms. Some people never show symptoms, but have the virus and are spreading it.

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This might explain the need for shelter in place orders

It sure does.....

MyNameIsKyle said:

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Yelnick McWawa said:

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BmtAg96 said:

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I am 46 years old but I do not have much memory of the H1N1 pandemic of 2009-2010. I pulled up some data that confirmed 60M Americans were infected and 12k died.

There was no social distancing requirement, cancellation of schools or shut down of "non essential" businesses. Our health system was not overwhelmed from what I have read.

Why are we wrecking our economy to control this virus when this was not done with H1N1? I understand flattening the curve but I question at what cost?

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Because a Democrat was in office then and a Republican is in office now. That's your answer.

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Victim mentality b.s.

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LOFL.
If you'd like to continue this on the appropriate board I'm game.

BmtAg96 said:

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I am 46 years old but I do not have much memory of the H1N1 pandemic of 2009-2010. I pulled up some data that confirmed 60M Americans were infected and 12k died.

There was no social distancing requirement, cancellation of schools or shut down of "non essential" businesses. Our health system was not overwhelmed from what I have read.

Why are we wrecking our economy to control this virus when this was not done with H1N1? I understand flattening the curve but I question at what cost?

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There was some degree of cross immunity to H1N1 and the mortality was about 0.02%. That being said, I've heard from the docs that lived through it is was an incredibly big strain on the healthcare system.

There appears to be essentially no human cross immunity to this strain of coronavirus and the mortality is about 25x higher minimum. So is unchecked nearly everyone would get it and between 1-2 million would die.

Sid Farkas said:

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RCR06 said:

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You must have been talking with my Dad? He was saying the same thing the other day. I think its very difficult to compare these types of events. Honestly, I'm not completely sure we are doing the right thing as a country. Medical professionals are by and large in agreement with the measures that are being taken. That's what I will go with because that isn't my area.

What concerns me is that you can spread it for several days before showing symptoms. Some people never show symptoms, but have the virus and are spreading it.

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This might explain the need for shelter in place orders

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Yep. But everyday on here we see people say something the effect of "why should we shelter in place - our death count is nowhere near the hotspots".

Others have mostly hit on it and i did a write up on another thread, but basically H1N1 is a good case study in infection rates if a novel, highly contagious virus, is left mostly unchecked. Estimates of total infections is 700MM-1.4B globally and 60MM in the US. The saving grace for h1n1 was it was no more deadly than seasonal flu. So while it was hard on the system as essentially we had a double in flu cases, it was nothing devastating. If we let this one spread the same way, with the current estimates for severity numbers, that would be 7-14MM dead in the world, 600k of those in the US alone, (using 1% CFR, which we have reason to believe it's higher: S. Korea sitting at 1.25% as of this morning) but with the estimates of 13-20% requiring hospitalization that would be 8-12 MM in the USA alone requiring hospitalization. looking at our current total case growth rate of 10x every 8 days, unchecked, we would hit 60 MM cases in the US on 4/17/2020 or 4/18/2020. So you are talking millions needing hospitalization simultaneously, which means zero chance our CFR stays in the low 1% range. Whether or not you agree with the conclusions, this is what is driving the severe response to this vs H1N1