Judge Beccera announced it. 11PM tomorrow night. Said he doesn't have a choice.

Only 9 cases.

In b4 conspiracy theorists

Where are you seeing this? I can't find this anywhere?

Same here. Latest stories from 7pm tonight say opposite.

Spoke with Kyle's mayor. Said Becerra contacted all the mayor's

Just passing along so don't shoot the messenger. Travis and Williamson did it. We knew Hays would follow suit. It's in the metro area

Does anyone know if Loving County has been ordered for shelter in place yet? Thanks in advance. Need to run to the gas station if so

JP_Losman said:

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Does anyone know if Loving County has been ordered for shelter in place yet? Thanks in advance. Need to run to the gas station if so

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Dude I got a flat tire in Orla two weeks ago and that was awful. No spare in the rental, no legit tire shops or really anyone that had the same size. Cost my company $700 for someone to drive me to Midland to get a new rental.

The Fall Guy said:

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Spoke with Kyle's mayor. Said Becerra contacted all the mayor's

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Fenrir said:

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DifferenceMaker Ag said:

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Thomas Ford 91 said:

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9 cases in a county with less than 250,000 is a big problem. How many ICU beds do you have in county? Divide that number by .14. That's how many cases your county can have before somebody is forced to decide who lives and who dies.

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Actually, multiply that number by .014.

But you're on a roll.

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So you're saying that a county with 200 ICU beds only needs 3 cases to be overrun?

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I'm not saying that at all, I was simply correcting 91's math error.

Worst case scenario based on a preliminarily high mortality rate in the US of 1.4% at the moment, a county with approximately 250K people would have 3500 severe cases/possible fatalities. I suppose I would say that it's a good idea to follow the guidelines of the surrounding counties because "shelter in place" only works with widespread participation within a given geographic region. Otherwise, everything taking place in the greater Austin area could be rendered useless.

Draw your own conclusions.

Fenrir said:

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DifferenceMaker Ag said:

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Thomas Ford 91 said:

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9 cases in a county with less than 250,000 is a big problem. How many ICU beds do you have in county? Divide that number by .14. That's how many cases your county can have before somebody is forced to decide who lives and who dies.

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Actually, multiply that number by .014.

But you're on a roll.

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So you're saying that a county with 200 ICU beds only needs 3 cases to be overrun?

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Where are you getting 200 from?

I'm not sure how accurate this number is, but going by hospital stats found here, Buda has 15. Kyle has 36, San Marcos has 10. 61 for the entire county, unless I'm missing a hospital. Presumably those hospitals have been doing whatever they can to increase those numbers and clear up space.

Also, we have way more than 9 cases in Hays. Even if they were testing people (which we know they aren't), doctors on other threads here are reporting 7 day turnaround on test results.

What is stupid is he has shut down all daycares. Only county in Texas to do so. So many medical families (including ours) who rely on childcare in order to go to work. I have spoken with him and he doesn't seem to care either way. I cannot figure out what his agenda is on the daycare issue. If anyone has some leverage with him please message me. I have several different community groups pleading with him to allow daycares to open back up for the essential employee families.

I was pointing out the math error in his post (or perhaps his misreading of the post he responded to).

What he was responding to says divide # of ICU beds by 0.14 to find total number of cases before ICU is presumably overrun. Multiplying the same # of ICU beds by 0.014 would result in an extremely low number of cases required to overrun ICU beds.

If 61 ICU beds are in the county, then by his math 0.8 people need to be infected before ICU beds are overrun.

Edit: I have no idea if his math is correct either, not sure how he got to his 0.14 factor.

He was just on KXAN at 10 saying that we do not need a shelter in place at the moment. That changed quickly....

New Braunfels is right there with them. Announced the equivalent of indefinite shelter in place and NBISD officially extended school closure through April 23rd. Even if Trump does announce an all clear in a week or so plenty of people will still have childcare issues on their hands in addition to whatever local restrictions are in place.

I'm interested to se if Abbot would override cities/counties and force the issue of a return to standard activities if they conflict with federal recommendations.

isnt the .14 an estimate for how many would require hospitalization (i.e. ICU care, ventilator, etc) to survive, not the mortality rate? If so, the math is tight and would make more sense and showing a significant gap in availability

OKG2000 said:

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isnt the .14 an estimate for how many would require hospitalization (i.e. ICU care, ventilator, etc) to survive, not the mortality rate? If so, the math is tight and would make more sense and showing a significant gap in availability

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Current mortality rate in the US is 1.41 percent according to the latest update. I think everyone agrees that his number will go down as more testing is done, but that's the number for now.

so what are the current statistics on how many require hospitalization? ive seen anywhere from 15-30%

Yes. It's flown over his head and there appears to be no sign of recognition.

OKG2000 said:

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so what are the current statistics on how many require hospitalization? ive seen anywhere from 15-30%

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NYPresby chief or surgery is reporting number of cases requiring hospitalization at 20%, and 80% of those needing a vent... but I don't know if that's # of cases showing up at the hospital needing help, or just all cases getting a test.

Reads pretty clearly as admissions to me.

thank you...so still in that range...going to be a rough few weeks

OKG2000 said:

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so what are the current statistics on how many require hospitalization? ive seen anywhere from 15-30%

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That number is hard to quantify across all age groups, but suffice to say that if everyone contracted the virus over a short period of time, or medical system would shut down for all intents and purposes. Keep in mind that the numbers being thrown around assume 100% (worst case scenario) rate of infection. Again, this is simply not going to happen. However, it's obvious, even with current measures being taken, that our medical capacity is being stretched to its limit, particularly in highly impacted regions.

Bottom line, real numbers regarding rate of infection and rate of hospitalization are virtually unknowable at this point, so 15-30% is just as good a guess as any other, particularly in dense population centers that are currently suffering well above average impact. Just my opinion.

Fenrir said:

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Reads pretty clearly as admissions to me.

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What's the difference between an admission vs. hospitalization?

Mordred said:

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Fenrir said:

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Reads pretty clearly as admissions to me.

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What's the difference between an admission vs. hospitalization?

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Sitting in a chair for a few hours, and laying in a bed for a few days. You could be admitted for examination and then released to go home.

Fenrir said:

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I was pointing out the math error in his post (or perhaps his misreading of the post he responded to).

What he was responding to says divide # of ICU beds by 0.14 to find total number of cases before ICU is presumably overrun. Multiplying the same # of ICU beds by 0.014 would result in an extremely low number of cases required to overrun ICU beds.

If 61 ICU beds are in the county, then by his math 0.8 people need to be infected before ICU beds are overrun.

Edit: I have no idea if his math is correct either, not sure how he got to his 0.14 factor.

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If there are 61 ICU beds in county, you run out of beds at 435 infected (61/.14). Assume 14% of infected require an ICU bed. And, they need that bed for 14-21 days. Except for the 4% of infected that will die within 10-12 days.

Keep in mind the known number of infected will be very far below the actual number of infected. For every death, you can assume 800 infected.

Also, keep in mind the most common cause of death for Covid 19 is a heart attack. The second most common is is pneumonia. If your county has seen an increase in heart attacks in the last 30 days, assume you already have infections.

If you have 9 known cases today, you had 9 cases 2 weeks ago. That means you have substantially more than 9 cases today.

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/hays/hays-county-to-implement-stay-at-home-order-wednesday/

And there it is.

shallyaggie said:

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What is stupid is he has shut down all daycares. Only county in Texas to do so. So many medical families (including ours) who rely on childcare in order to go to work. I have spoken with him and he doesn't seem to care either way. I cannot figure out what his agenda is on the daycare issue. If anyone has some leverage with him please message me. I have several different community groups pleading with him to allow daycares to open back up for the essential employee families.

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is there anyone at all that you know that is currently unemployed that you trust? Maybe you could do a quid pro quo type thing where you pay them to watch your kiddos?? I was thinking about that too as an essential employee with kids (my husband has the same job) and that we are lucky to have family members to help us.

No family even close. Our old nanny's husband has a medical condition so we will not risk her. We are on waitlist for a Travis daycare. Just waiting....

No friends that are in the service industry?