What are they doing to get that curve action?

So how far behind them are we?

PJYoung said:

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They learned from SARS and were ready.

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It's like they have North Korea and China right out their front door......

PJYoung said:

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They learned from SARS and were ready.

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Also, a population that is accustomed to everyone wearing masking PDs in public (SARS experience?)



I wonder what we could have learned from Asia experience with SARS. Always better to learn from other people's mistakes. On the other hand, our circumstances (laws, culture, expectations, geographic spread) are different and we will always have our own unique issues that are going to result in unique problems.

Also, what we should have learned from H1N1.

Govt bureaucracy doesn't seem very good at planning for an inexperienced crisis, but usually focuses on the last one. The DOD seems to do a lot of war planning just in case. Maybe CDC needs to have a group that game plans pandemics, or maybe they should tap the guys at H-E-B to help out.

I realize there will always be some conspiracy people, but is it really a "huge segment"? What's the definition of huge in this case. Even the few extreme people I know who would typically believe in any kind of conspiracy possible no longer think that.

Asian countries are in general a lot more authoritarian than we are, even the ones that are considered pretty democratic. We have to fashion our own response based on actual data.

PFG said:

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this is an over blown, media driven case of the flu

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PJYoung said:

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Johnny2Fan said:

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So how far behind them are we?

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Our response has nothing to do with theirs.

Our response is more like Italys although we dont have a strict nationwide shutdown yet so you cant even say that.

We expect to hit our peak towards the end of April but the United State is so huge our peak might last a while.

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Why peak end of April?

Would that not mean most people are a week or two away from running out and getting it in the first place?

That seems counter-intuitive based on the restrictions in place. I have not been out admittedly but from what I am seeing it seems like a lot of people are following the social distrancing / work from home guidelines.

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It IS being exploited in an effort to grab more federal control,

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False

iirc SK had a large outbreak in a reclusive religous community that had travel exposure to Wuhan. The # of initial cases were relatively confined and most of the graphs are based off of either 10 th or 100th case because the community was isolated the outbreak was not widely dispersed in the greater community

Are you saying proactive measures to avoid a crisis are unwarranted? We should only take action after things have gotten out of control?

Your argument is compelling but I don't agree with it. If action would have been taken in an effort to preempt the spread of cv 6 weeks ago we might be in a better place.

True, though both positions could have truth and not necessarily be mutually exclusive. Like, it could simultaneously be fact that this is both indeed a serious public health issue and it is also being further 'propagandized' and exploited by certain interests that do actually want to manipulate behavior and restrict/encroach on certain liberties. Our government has a prosperous track record of not letting disasters go to waste in that regard, and even engineering them if a legit one can't be found.

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and even engineering them if a legit one can't be found.

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Please give examples. I'm hoping for 9/11 truther.

One-Eyed Fat Man said:

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I believe we prefer to react rather than prepare. Call me cynical but as long as Ebola stayed in Africa no one really gave a **** as long as it didn't come here. When it did, look at the resources devoted to finding a vaccine/cure. Getting politicians to spend money on something that might or might not be an issue in their lifetimes as opposed to pork barrel politics is a low priority.

Maybe that will change now but I doubt it.

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The Ebola vaccine is a great story but also a disgraceful one. I'm guessing we would have had a vaccine for corona already if SARS or MERS had escaped from yellow people containment. Maybe pharma can be incentivized to start giving a crap.

planoaggie123 said:

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PJYoung said:

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Johnny2Fan said:

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So how far behind them are we?

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Our response has nothing to do with theirs.

Our response is more like Italys although we dont have a strict nationwide shutdown yet so you cant even say that.

We expect to hit our peak towards the end of April but the United State is so huge our peak might last a while.

---

Why peak end of April?

Would that not mean most people are a week or two away from running out and getting it in the first place?

That seems counter-intuitive based on the restrictions in place. I have not been out admittedly but from what I am seeing it seems like a lot of people are following the social distrancing / work from home guidelines.

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Depends on which peak. Peak new cases, peak positive cases, peak hospitalizations, peak deaths. They have have separate delays from when we start to limit spread.

What I find interesting is all these predictions are based on when we went into lockdown. The lockdowns just mandated the recommendations that were already in place. Yes, a lot of people ignored the recommendations, but a lot of people followed them. And limiting contact of even part of the population has an effect on the rate of spread.

Tbs2003 said:

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BiochemAg97 said:

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PJYoung said:

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They learned from SARS and were ready.

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Also, a population that is accustomed to everyone wearing masking PDs in public (SARS experience?)



I wonder what we could have learned from Asia experience with SARS. Always better to learn from other people's mistakes. On the other hand, our circumstances (laws, culture, expectations, geographic spread) are different and we will always have our own unique issues that are going to result in unique problems.

Also, what we should have learned from H1N1.

Govt bureaucracy doesn't seem very good at planning for an inexperienced crisis, but usually focuses on the last one. The DOD seems to do a lot of war planning just in case. Maybe CDC needs to have a group that game plans pandemics, or maybe they should tap the guys at H-E-B to help out.

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Not to get too political here, but it sounds like we had one:

https://khn.org/morning-breakout/nscs-pandemic-handbook-listed-out-step-by-step-instructions-for-the-white-house-to-follow-it-was-ignored/

We've grown into a country that finds facts and science too inconvenient, so here we are.

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I found this part buried in an article about the Pres not following a specific playbook interesting

A health department spokesperson also said that the NSC playbook was not part of the current coronavirus strategy. "The HHS COVID-19 response was informed by more recent plans such as the foundation of the National Biodefense Strategy (2018), Biological Incident Annex (2017),and panCAP (2018) among other key plans provided by the CDC, White House Task Force, FEMA, and other key federal departments and agencies," the spokesperson said.

At the very least, someone needed to update the playbook in light of the newer strategy documents. May have been just a review and republish with a newer date.

PFG said:

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Quote:

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It IS being exploited in an effort to grab more federal control,

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False

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I provided an example, please elaborate.

TXCityAggie said:

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Cutting off flights from China was the smart thing to do. We then went on to waste the extra time that gave us to prepare. Now we are reacting instead of being proactive. There was and is no plan. When this is all over, I hope our government learns from this mistake and puts a plan together because this will happen again. We might be back in this same boat with round 2 of this virus later this year.

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It will not learn. The bigger any organization is, the more reactive, instead of proactive, it becomes. This especially true when the organization is not allowed to suffer the consequences for it's lack of foresight

Our way of life is not conducive using learned behaviors.
We have an experience. We figure out the problem. We fix it. By the time a new experience arises the leadership of the last experience has changed.

Therefore we start from scratch each time.

I don't know where I read this or heard this but at some point I had read or heard that South Korea had actually created traffic check points where they allowed citizens to test at the stop or not. (Not the same thing as drive through testing). These were actual check points on main roads people had to go through . Now taking the test as I understood it was not mandatory but most people did. Not sure how true all this is. But if it is, then it explains things a bit.