"Dr. Anthony Fauci says US could see more than 100,000 coronavirus-related deaths" https://twitter.com/i/events/1244316140559458305

He hedges the statement quiet a bit.

He said, "Looking at what we are seeing now, one or two hundred thousand [American deaths]." He also said, "we'll have millions of cases."

https://www.oann.com/dr-anthony-fauci-backtracks-on-deadliness-of-virus/

This was dated Friday so either he's all over the place are we got fake with oann

Misread thread

Among epidemiologists 200,000 predicted deaths may be too low. "The expert consensus is that COVID-19 will cause 246,000 deaths in 2020,"

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-say-the-coronavirus-outlook-has-worsened-but-the-trajectory-is-still-unclear/

Isnt the number of deaths only relevant when compared or related to a timeframe?
100k deaths over the next 12-16 months is a lot different in how this is perceived and responded than 100k over the next 3 months.

Sadly, I think his number is about right.

In recent years we saw up to 70,000 cases of flu deaths. The death rate is 4-10x higher with this one (so far).

I hope it can be lower, but we started to get serious about this pretty late and we still don't have adequate supplies. Plus the flu has a vaccine.

200,000 /380,000,000 = .0005 or .05%

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/wuhan-residents-dismiss-official-coronavirus-death-toll-the-incinerators-have-been-working-around-the-clock/

Looks like even Trump is singing a different tune than he was about the deaths being up to 200k

200k seems like a legit prediction based on what I see in my hometown.

A person can be smart but people are stupid. We have so many people that are not following the guidelines.

The economy isn't going to be doing well with 200+k dying with the hospitals overwhelmed. Opening up the economy isn't possible. Countries would stop travel here, mass exodus of people would be walking out of their jobs. It would look terrible and would be terrible. The economy is screwed regardless.

TxAG#2011 said:

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Italy has reported over 10k deaths from an area/pop about the size of Massachusetts and Connecticut combined. 100k - 200k for the entire USA doesn't sound unreasonable at all

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Italy's deaths are also underreported. The only deaths that get reported as CV deaths are cases that have had a positive test result for CV, which limits it to those who died while being treated in hospital.

Apparently a much larger number of Italians have died in their homes and in nursing homes, maybe as many as 4x the number reported.

100k deaths here in the US is entirely possible.

https://apple.news/AelwxD616RpOKYuXyrFzzAg

100k deaths here in the US isn't just entirely possible, it's likely.

5k confirmed CV deaths ramping up from 500 deaths the day before yesterday to 900 deaths yesterday. The hockey stick has just started. Wait till we get to 2k deaths a day. And then 4k deaths a day. Reality is going to smack some people in the face,....and heart.

goodAg80 said:

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Sadly, I think his number is about right.

In recent years we saw up to 70,000 cases of flu deaths. The death rate is 4-10x higher with this one (so far).

I hope it can be lower, but we started to get serious about this pretty late and we still don't have adequate supplies. Plus the flu has a vaccine.

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People have also taken a more laissez faire attitude about the flu over the years due to vaccines and natural immunity. This? Not so much. While we could do even more to isolate, we are certainly well above and beyond normal flu precautions.

I posted this comment on another thread, but I felt it important to place it here as well.

This 100,000-200,000 number would be a large jump for pneumonia only related deaths versus the past 5 years. The interesting data point here is that CDC data reflects an all cause mortality rate of 55,000-60,000/week on average during this time of year for the past five years (this does not include non-disease related deaths). 2017-2018 season had a 2 month period where we averaged over 60,000/week.

The 2019-2020 data shows that this flu season was the least deadly in the past five years for pneumonia related mortality but CV-19 will impact the numbers.

The reason for my post is to provide perspective; that the mortality rate overall is nowhere near unprecedented and the real challenge would be to determine how much of an impact CV-19 had to increase the overall averages of the past 5 years.

Another issue is the presentation of the data. People's initial reaction is to focus on the headline of 200,000 and become fearful because that number does sound high (or low) depending on your perspective or knowledge of mortality rates but if you break it down to something relational to everyone; he just stated that they estimate anywhere from 500-1000 people per state and per week on average could die due to complications related to CV-19.

In 2017 per CDC data, In Texas ALONE mortality rates for people with heart disease, cancer, chronic lower respiratory disease, and diabetes averaged 1,971 PER WEEK which more than likely went up in 2018 (data not available).

It is hard to determine how many people with these comorbidities would be part of the 500-1000 estimated to be affected by CV-19 in the coming weeks, but they will more than likely make up a significant portion if statistics from all other countries apply to our numbers

Since we are making poor comparisons, why not compare the average DAILY number of deaths in the U.S. in April with the DAILY death toll of CV.

Average DAILY deaths in April: ~7700

Yesterday's CV deaths: 912

The number of CV deaths doubles every ~4 days or so. That means our average daily death rate for April will probably double in the next two weeks, with over 15,000 deaths a day and half of them being attributed to CV.

Gordo14 said:

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98% of what you said is entirely irrelevant. What's relevant is something like 100k- a quarter million people will die from this. And if we did nothing a few million would die from this. How many people die from other things is irrelevant. At this point, this virus is the 3rd leading killer in America today. And by the end of the week it'll likely be the #1 killer in America. And then the number of deaths per day will continue growing 20% d/d for at least another week.

Honestly, I'm sick of the "this isn't that bad because people die other ways" crowd. It's irrelevant whataboutism. "9/11 wasn't bad, only 3,000 people died" the fact that we are talking about numbers ~2 orders of magnitude larger, and it still isn't alarming some people is shocking.

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99% of Italy's deaths of those who were tested positive for CV-19 had at least 1 underlying health condition of those whom were infected (48-50% had three or more) and was a major factor why I shared the mortality numbers I did. I do not recall (nor see) ever stating anywhere that CV-19 is not concerning in my post. I only put the numbers into perspective versus what happens in a typical week for US Mortality rates (and Texas) related to disease.

We can all assume the what if we did or didn't numbers related to mortality from CV-19 but I was speaking only to the numbers that were presented from the government. I did not state they were just or unjust....they were just put into perspective.

If you want people to feel the way you do and be alarmed; you are welcome to post your data if you feel it important.

Carolin_Gallego said:

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Since we are making poor comparisons, why not compare the average DAILY number of deaths in the U.S. in April with the DAILY death toll of CV.

Average DAILY deaths in April: ~7700

Yesterday's CV deaths: 912

The number of CV deaths doubles every ~4 days or so. That means our average daily death rate for April will probably double in the next two weeks, with over 15,000 deaths a day and half of them being attributed to CV.

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That is a great example and please also note that the government did not give any time indicator to their number they stated of 200,000 total deaths. It could be greater or less but at this moment in time, lets look at March as that is the only somewhat valid data we have. If 4000 died in the US due to CV-19 and on average 100,000-120,000 die due to all diseases combined, did CV-19 increase the average overall or would these same 4000 have died due to their comorbidities. No one on this board can answer and neither can I.

Lets jump to the speculation of April, you state that deaths double every four days or so......that data is based on confirmed cases starting around March 10 probably....first, this is erroneous data as we don't know how many died from this disease before that because we were not testing for it as they were being deemed to have died from other conditions that they were diagnosed with. The jump is solely due to ability to now test so that exponential jump you refer to every four days is based on incomplete data and also only based on the ability to test.

The truth is we don't know how much CV-19 will impact historical trends yet related to US Mortality rates related to diseases but we do need to be aware and proactive in controlling any spread.

What percentage of America has at least 1 underlying health condition?

Again, just because people with underlying health conditions are more likely to die, doesn't make the deaths less relevant.

Gordo14 said:

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What percentage of America has at least 1 underlying health condition?

Again, just because people with underlying health conditions are more likely to die, doesn't make the deaths less relevant

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A great question and I have yet to find that study/data published, but there is a reason that every warning related to CV-19 has an emphasis on those with pre-existing conditions and the risks/threats it poses to them.

The deaths are no less relevant but I do not recall anyone banging the table in April of last year saying that we are averaging 7700 deaths per day in the US and this is an absolute shock and everyone should be concerned.

Palovic said:

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Gordo14 said:

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What percentage of America has at least 1 underlying health condition?

Again, just because people with underlying health conditions are more likely to die, doesn't make the deaths less relevant

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A great question and I have yet to find that study/data published, but there is a reason that every warning related to CV-19 has an emphasis on those with pre-existing conditions and the risks/threats it poses to them.

The deaths are no less relevant but I do not recall anyone banging the table in April of last year saying that we are averaging 7700 deaths per day in the US and this is an absolute shock and everyone should be concerned.

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After a 5 second google search, your answer to how many Americans have an underlying chronic health condition, 78% Of people over 55.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/health_policy/adult_chronic_conditions.htm

This isn't hard

And I'm 53, with an A1C of 6.8, paroxysmal a fib that has put me in the hospital 3 times since I was 32, and had tuberculosis as a kid (treated and "cured"). And I hike a lot and am very active outdoors and am other wise healthy and fit.

But it's good to know that since I'm not a cross fitter my potential death is not a big deal.