I am just searching for good news where I can find it here...but if COVID-19 were only as deadly as the flu but just wildly more contagious...how and when would that begin to show up in the numbers?
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I know COVID isn't the "same as the Flu"....but....
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Last: 5 yr ago by Leggo My Elko
good question. At some point soon it would max out in terms of the rate of infection. New cases would start to decline and then deaths.
Also, the only way to confirm that theory in the short term is via widespread surveillance testing for antibodies in the general population.
Shows up in the numbers once we can actually test everyone. There are big differences in how the data is being presented - case numbers vs % of population can tell wildly different stories. More testing = better representation.
Regardless of how it ends up comparing to flu, it's probably still worth the caution.
Regardless of how it ends up comparing to flu, it's probably still worth the caution.
How is the flu death rate computed? A lot of people have the flu each year that either aren't tested or have a false negative. Do they estimate the total number of flu cases or use only positive test results? (Honest question that I don't know the answer to.)
Inca said:
How is the flu death rate computed? A lot of people have the flu each year that either aren't tested or have a false negative. Do they estimate the total number of flu cases or use only positive test results? (Honest question that I don't know the answer to.)
I believe it is estimated...but they have a lot more known data points to work with.
One silver lining in all this, in a few years when a lot of research has been done, there are going to be some great books breaking all this down.
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