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The coronavirus pandemic is exacting a heavy toll on Italy, with hospitals overwhelmed and a nationwide lockdown imposed. But experts are also concerned about a seemingly high death rate, with the number of fatalities outstripping the total reported in China.

Of the 63,927 people confirmed coronavirus patients in Italy, 6,077 so far have died. By contrast China has many more cases, 81,496, but 3,274 fatalities.

In very crude terms, this means that around nine per cent of confirmed coronavirus patients have died in Italy, compared to four per cent in China. By this measure Germany, which has so far identified 28,865 cases and 118 deaths, has a fatality rate of just 0.4 per cent.

So why the disparity?

According to Prof Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy's minister of health, the country's mortality rate is far higher due to demographics - the nation has the second oldest population worldwide - and the manner in which hospitals record deaths.

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy

KidDoc said:

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And because you cannot trust the China numbers. The WHO did at first and that delayed everything.

9% is really really bad for an infection that will end up afflicting at least 50% of a given population.

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Do you think the US mortality rate will be north of 1% when the dust settles?

Fox just released this article estimating over 40k deaths in Wuhan alone.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/wuhan-residents-say-coronavirus-figures-released-by-china-dont-add-up

The population age thing makes sense, but then one has to ask why Germany has had so few deaths. Their median age is higher than Italy's.

I would bet 2-3% with some areas being under 1% and the hotspots being 5% due to logistics.

The_Fox said:

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KidDoc said:

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And because you cannot trust the China numbers. The WHO did at first and that delayed everything.

9% is really really bad for an infection that will end up afflicting at least 50% of a given population.

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Do you think the US mortality rate will be north of 1% when the dust settles?

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It will be lower for sure. Something like 0.1%

KidDoc said:

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And because you cannot trust the China numbers. The WHO did at first and that delayed everything.

9% is really really bad for an infection that will end up afflicting at least 50% of a given population.

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You're being naive if you believe WHO trusts anything from China. They're part of the Chinese Cabal and just amplify the lies.

AustinAg2K said:

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The population age thing makes sense, but then one has to ask why Germany has had so few deaths. Their median age is higher than Italy's.

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Germany is not reporting all of the deaths as corona deaths. If you have an underlying condition and die they are listening the underlying condition as the cause of death.

There was an article posted on the reddit covid-19 site by researchers estimating that 10% of Italy and 15% of Spain have the virus currently or have already had the virus.
So 12,000 deaths out of 6 million cases in Italy.

Sorry not sure how to post links.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

Drifter. said:

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AustinAg2K said:

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The population age thing makes sense, but then one has to ask why Germany has had so few deaths. Their median age is higher than Italy's.

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Germany is not reporting all of the deaths as corona deaths. If you have an underlying condition and die they are listening the underlying condition as the cause of death.

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That makes sense as far as why the numbers are so different.

I know of someone that was on hospice and then got it and died and it was counted as a CV death. It seems like if you are on hospice before you get CV it really shouldn't be counted as a CV death. I think if you were expected be alive on Jan 1, 2022 it should count as a CV death.

The article pointed out hoy much of the folks in Italy that have contracted it and died, are over 70 years old. Could some of it also be due to the amount of cigarette smokers they have over there?

I would be interested to see how many of the under 30yo patients that have died, were smokers, or vapers, or had some form of lung complication pre-existing. We were discussing this the other day, and it got me thinking about it.

DadHammer said:

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The_Fox said:

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KidDoc said:

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And because you cannot trust the China numbers. The WHO did at first and that delayed everything.

9% is really really bad for an infection that will end up afflicting at least 50% of a given population.

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Do you think the US mortality rate will be north of 1% when the dust settles?

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It will be lower for sure. Something like 0.1%

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That's wishful thinking, and no experts are predicting anything that low.

This is just plain wrong. Your average flu or H1N1 has a CFR of 0.2%. This leads to about 40K deaths PER YEAR. We have already had 3K deaths from COVID since March and this is doubling every 2-3 days. As testing has ramped up we dropped to a CFR of about 1.2. Now that this virus has had time to start affecting patients deaths are catching up to the testing and we are around 1.8% CFR. This will only increase due to the collateral damage inflicted to our healthcare logistics.

Drifter. said:

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AustinAg2K said:

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The population age thing makes sense, but then one has to ask why Germany has had so few deaths. Their median age is higher than Italy's.

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Germany is not reporting all of the deaths as corona deaths. If you have an underlying condition and die they are listening the underlying condition as the cause of death.

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This is not true. Germany is reporting the same as everybody else.

They just tested extremely early and often, and did a good job of isolating infected patients, similar to SK, but later so they had a better handle on things.

Aggieangler93 said:

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The article pointed out hoy much of the folks in Italy that have contracted it and died, are over 70 years old. Could some of it also be due to the amount of cigarette smokers they have over there?

I would be interested to see how many of the under 30yo patients that have died, were smokers, or vapers, or had some form of lung complication pre-existing. We were discussing this the other day, and it got me thinking about it.

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There is no doubt that the level of smoking plays a role in why the death rates are higher in some areas and not n others. How much will have to be determined once this is all over with.

I'm sure research into the pandemic will last for decades to come.

Where are you getting your data? Is your source reliable and credible? Before you start posting in threads at a time like this you need to make sure your data is accurate. Because it's wildly off reality. Facts matter. Johns Hopkins data today shows 75,795 confirmed cases and 1,550 deaths. Do the math yourself. NY is arguably the best data we have given the massive amount of testing distributed. If you don't believe china's data or Italy's data that's fine. But NY lines up directly with what the initial reports were from ICU physicians in Wuhan and Italy.