Up to 195K deaths in USA over next 4-8 weeks???

6,517 Views | 36 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by CapCityAg89
Houston Lee
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:58a, 4/1/20
AG
Fauci, Birx and Trump were telling us yesterday that we could see up to 200,000 deaths in the USA from COVID-19.

The total deaths in the USA right now is around 4,000.

If the curves they showed yesterday dissipate around June, then that means we may see up to 195,000+ people die over this period of time.

Incredible and scary.
Reply Quote
2
GE
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
4:32a, 4/1/20
AG
That's the worst case number assuming current measures of mitigation without perfect adherence. Also due to the long tail of the curve it would be over a longer period of time. But scary indeed.
Reply Quote
1
Palovic
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
5:33a, 4/1/20
This 100,000-200,000 number would be a large jump for pneumonia only related deaths versus the past 5 years. The interesting data point here is that CDC data reflects an all cause mortality rate of 55,000-60,000/week on average during this time of year for the past five years (this does not include non-disease related deaths). 2017-2018 season had a 2 month period where we averaged over 60,000/week.

The 2019-2020 data shows that this flu season was the least deadly in the past five years for pneumonia related mortality but CV-19 will impact the numbers.

The reason for my post is to provide perspective; that the mortality rate overall is nowhere near unprecedented and the real challenge would be to determine how much of an impact CV-19 had to increase the overall averages of the past 5 years.

Another issue is the presentation of the data. People's initial reaction is to focus on the headline of 200,000 and become fearful because that number does sound high (or low) depending on your perspective or knowledge of mortality rates but if you break it down to something relational to everyone; he just stated that they estimate anywhere from 500-1000 people per state and per week on average could die due to complications related to CV-19.

In 2017 per CDC data, In Texas ALONE mortality rates for people with heart disease, cancer, chronic lower respiratory disease, and diabetes averaged 1,971 PER WEEK which more than likely went up in 2018 (data not available).

It is hard to determine how many people with these comorbidities would be part of the 500-1000 estimated to be affected by CV-19 in the coming weeks, but they will more than likely make up a significant portion if statistics from all other countries apply to our numbers.
Reply Quote
27
AustinAg2K
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
7:43a, 4/1/20
They are throwing out the worst case scenario numbers to scare people into action, but I think there's a good chance it backfires. If there are only 5,000 deaths per day instead of 10,000, you'll have people claiming the whole thing was a fraud because we didn't hit those numbers.
Reply Quote
5
tysker
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
7:51a, 4/1/20
AG
Deaths are a lagging indicator. Also, timeframe is important. 200k deaths over the next 4 weeks is very much different than 200k deaths by year end.
Reply Quote
Drip99
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to AustinAg2K • 8:01a, 4/1/20
AG
AustinAg2K said:
They are throwing out the worst case scenario numbers to scare people into action, but I think there's a good chance it backfires. If there are only 5,000 deaths per day instead of 10,000, you'll have people claiming the whole thing was a fraud because we didn't hit those numbers.


Only an uneducated moron would claim it's a fraud because we bent the curve and saved lives. If people cant see how dangerous this is at overwhelming the system based on what happened in Italy and now NYC then they are beyond help.
Reply Quote
34
cone
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Houston Lee • 8:09a, 4/1/20
AG
Quote:
Fauci, Birx and Trump were telling us yesterday that we could see up to 200,000 deaths in the USA from COVID-19.
over what time frame?

i took that as meaning for the year

100k-200k for the year, the next two months as the mortality peak for the year
Reply Quote
wargograw
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:10a, 4/1/20
Don't we have this exact thread already?
Reply Quote
4
Houston Lee
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to cone • 8:31a, 4/1/20
AG
cone said:
Quote:
Fauci, Birx and Trump were telling us yesterday that we could see up to 200,000 deaths in the USA from COVID-19.
over what time frame?

i took that as meaning for the year

100k-200k for the year, the next two months as the mortality peak for the year
Here is your time frame per the White House Slides. This is thru July 1. So, yeah. We are talking about 100-240K deaths in that time frame.

Reply Quote
4
PFG
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to AustinAg2K • 8:33a, 4/1/20
AG
Quote:
If there are only 5,000 deaths per day instead of 10,000, you'll have people claiming the whole social
distance and lock down thing a success.


FIFY
Reply Quote
3
cone
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Houston Lee • 8:38a, 4/1/20
AG
i just don't understand how it infects 5-12+ million people with the current lockdown

especially if the more highly vulnerable are actively hiding from the outside world and other human contact

if you take their mortality out of the mix, you'd expect the IFR to be even lower - requiring 15-35 million to contract

and by that point, we're inching closer to a herd immunity given non-severe social distancing

so i don't really understand these projections given the current climate of fear
Reply Quote
PFG
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Drip99 • 8:40a, 4/1/20
AG
There are a lot of folks beyond help. I understand the general lack of trusting the govt, but here we have a pandemic that has shown us how it can devastate in other countries, and yet we still battle the "oh but car accidents" and "oh but pneumonia" and "oh but bad flu season" folks.

Incredibly obtuse.
Reply Quote
26
Palovic
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Houston Lee • 8:44a, 4/1/20
TurkeyBaconLeg said:
cone said:
Quote:
Fauci, Birx and Trump were telling us yesterday that we could see up to 200,000 deaths in the USA from COVID-19.
over what time frame?

i took that as meaning for the year

100k-200k for the year, the next two months as the mortality peak for the year
Here is your time frame per the White House Slides. This is thru July 1. So, yeah. We are talking about 100-240K deaths in that time frame.

Per this chart, the peak will designate on AVERAGE less than 50 people who test positive for CV-19 will die PER STATE and PER DAY. I know that the actual distribution will be heavy towards the large cities and the states where those city are located. These cities/states will definitely need support to combat which is a major concern for everyone.

Alarm is not required by these numbers. Just be aware and do what you can to keep the surge as low as possible for the next few weeks to help out our medical professionals.
Reply Quote
1
1 edit
tysker
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Houston Lee • 8:47a, 4/1/20
AG
So they expect less than 50 deaths/day by early June and around zero by early July? Nationally? Something about that doesnt feel correct. Going to be hard to continue with stay-at-home standards through May when you have less than 10 deaths per day per state.


edit to add: if this chart is accurate, we've done a great job containing this thing, imo, even with all the mistakes and mishaps
Reply Quote
2
1 edit
Houston Lee
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:50a, 4/1/20
AG
Of course, this could be a case setting the expectations to be one thing and then when you come with better numbers (less deaths) then you look like the hero.

Reply Quote
1
cone
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Houston Lee • 8:55a, 4/1/20
AG
i just don't understand the inputs

unless we're pricing in that the vast majority of vulnerable populations to be infected have already been infected and will die shortly

OR that the IFR for younger working age populations in America will be much higher than what we saw in Italy (which is plausible - our working age population is fatter, more diabetic)
Reply Quote
1
Yukon Cornelius
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:17a, 4/1/20
AG
This is also based on NY and NJ. Which we all know are the worst places in the country for a virus like this and they were late to mitigate it.
Reply Quote
2
HumpitPuryear
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:32a, 4/1/20
AG
Spain and Italy would have to triple their current death tally to hit the equivalent of the 200K number adjusted for population. That with them supposedly being a couple weeks ahead of us on infection, later in restricting travel from China, and later in implementing social distancing. Note that they are also reporting cautious optimism that infections have plateaued. I don't see how we hit 200K by July unless there's some factor in the US that is playing out differently.
Reply Quote
1
HotardAg07
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:33a, 4/1/20
AG
Shaun Shaikh '07
Reply Quote
HumpitPuryear
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:36a, 4/1/20
AG
Spain and Italy would have to triple their current death tally to hit the equivalent of the 200K number adjusted for population. That with them supposedly being a couple weeks ahead of us on infection, later in restricting travel from China, and later in implementing social distancing. Note that they are also reporting cautious optimism that infections have plateaued. I don't see how we hit 200K by July unless there's some factor in the US that is playing out differently.
Reply Quote
7
PFG
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to HumpitPuryear • 10:15a, 4/1/20
AG
Quote:
unless there's some factor in the US that is playing out differently.


There is. It's called American ego and our population, at large, ignoring social distancing, not staying home, not giving two Fs. Mostly they still think this is a "bad flu" and thinking it's all some govt exercise in taking away rights.
Reply Quote
10
HumpitPuryear
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to PFG • 10:42a, 4/1/20
AG
So you really thing Italians are social distancing better than we are? Plus I don't believe that they are even able to effectively model social distancing as a factor.

They continue to give us crap for data and the media runs with the highlights and doesn't investigate. It would be nice to see some explanation of the factors that drive this model. It would be nice to see some followup on the cruise ship patients. It would be nice if the US media was giving us what is known about China, Italy, etc. BBC is way better than any US news source and even they are just reporting and not really investigating. Investigative reporting is non-existent anymore.
Reply Quote
6
benchmark
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:41p, 4/1/20
AG
Per Univ of Wash IHME current model ... 32k deaths by April 15 and 68k by May 1. April is going to be a brutal month.
Reply Quote
1 edit
H.E. Pennypacker
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to HumpitPuryear • 1:25p, 4/1/20
AG
HumpitPuryear said:
So you really thing Italians are social distancing better than we are? Plus I don't believe that they are even able to effectively model social distancing as a factor.

They continue to give us crap for data and the media runs with the highlights and doesn't investigate. It would be nice to see some explanation of the factors that drive this model. It would be nice to see some followup on the cruise ship patients. It would be nice if the US media was giving us what is known about China, Italy, etc. BBC is way better than any US news source and even they are just reporting and not really investigating. Investigative reporting is non-existent anymore.


I'm going to save you a rant at "the media." The Chinese government has been lying. Our government has been lying since January, and continues to lie up until the time they are forced to tell the truth by the actual apparent numbers. And if they are not intentionally lying, then they are apparently very incompetent.

Whatever happens from here, you are on notice that you need to think critically for yourself. All of our local city governments, hospitals and state officials are scrambling for themselves now.

It is likely we had over 1 million cases of Covid-19 before the government decided to tell everyone to panic two weeks ago.
Reply Quote
JB99
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
1:55p, 4/1/20
AG
Here's another way to model it.

Assumptions:
1. Italy is the worst case globally in terms of deaths per capita
2. NY State is the worst case for the USA as a whole
3. Italy's deaths per day has peaked and now they are on the downslope of the curve.
4. NY will equal Italy's death's per capita
5. Number of deaths on the downslope of the curve will be equal to or less than the totals leading up to the peak due to social distancing measures.
6. We'll assume the rest of the US follow the same death rates as NY for worst case.
7. We are assuming social distance measures stay in place in US.

There are currently ~13,000 deaths in Italy with a population of 60,000,000. They are at the peak, so we can assume their total deaths will equal x2 so ~26,000.

NY has a population of 20,000,000, so 1/3 the size of Italy. We will assume 1/3 of deaths of Italy so ~9,000 deaths.

Overall population of US is 330,000,000 roughly 16.5 times the size of NY state.

9,000 x 16.5 = 148,500 deaths. This is worst case.

Now NYC is 18,000,000 of NY State's 20,000,000 people.

The population density of NYC is 4 times bigger than Los Angeles and much more dense than any other City in the US. How much that factors in, I don't know.

Will the US relax social distancing measures at some point in the next couple months? Probably yes. How does that factor in? We don't know, I haven't seen any other country relax social distancing yet and what the impact was.

Very hard to predict here, but I would think 100,000 would be on the high end.

Reply Quote
pocketrockets06
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to JB99 • 2:11p, 4/1/20
AG
This is from the FAQ on the models:

Does this show the effect of social distancing and other measures?

The model includes the effects of social distancing measures implemented at the "first administrative level" (in the US this generally means the state level) and assumes continued social distancing until at least the end of May 2020. We classified social distancing measures using the New Zealand Government alert system Level 4 and then assume that locations that have instituted fewer than three of these measures will enact the remaining measures within seven days. We also assume that implementation and adherence to these measures is complete. With each model update, the assumption of full implementation of social distancing measures is reset; any delay will be reflected in the number of deaths and burden on hospital systems that the model estimates.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

Note that some states have not yet enacted the measures and adherence is clearly not "complete". We are likely going to be higher than the mid-range estimate and be over 100,000 easily.
Reply Quote
JB99
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to pocketrockets06 • 2:23p, 4/1/20
AG
pocketrockets06 said:
This is from the FAQ on the models:

Does this show the effect of social distancing and other measures?

The model includes the effects of social distancing measures implemented at the "first administrative level" (in the US this generally means the state level) and assumes continued social distancing until at least the end of May 2020. We classified social distancing measures using the New Zealand Government alert system Level 4 and then assume that locations that have instituted fewer than three of these measures will enact the remaining measures within seven days. We also assume that implementation and adherence to these measures is complete. With each model update, the assumption of full implementation of social distancing measures is reset; any delay will be reflected in the number of deaths and burden on hospital systems that the model estimates.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

Note that some states have not yet enacted the measures and adherence is clearly not "complete". We are likely going to be higher than the mid-range estimate and be over 100,000 easily.
Could be. My guess is population density has a major impact. The rest of the US is going to be orders of magnitude less deaths/capita than NY. For example, where I live, social distancing is by default the norm for most of the population. Outside of schools and Church you are rarely in close quarters with others outside your social circle. That's true for the majority of the US outside NYC and major metro areas. Also, public transportation is heavily used in NYC. There's many more Metro areas that don't use alot of public transportation. I think these models are built off trends they are seeing in NYC and Italy and don't factor in these variables. Also, it's really hard to quantify the impact of complete vs. incomplete social distancing.
Reply Quote
1
1 edit
AgLiving06
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Houston Lee • 2:32p, 4/1/20
TurkeyBaconLeg said:
Fauci, Birx and Trump were telling us yesterday that we could see up to 200,000 deaths in the USA from COVID-19.

The total deaths in the USA right now is around 4,000.

If the curves they showed yesterday dissipate around June, then that means we may see up to 195,000+ people die over this period of time.

Incredible and scary.

You forgot the most important piece of it.

As Fauci said, the models are only as good as the assumptions and underlying data.

A lot of the assumptions are based off of how NY is going on the assumption that it's the norm, not the exception whereas someplace like Washington State is the exception.

If the other states trend closer to Washington State, the model will come down pretty drastically.

We of course could have had much better data, but the Chinese are hiding the truth from us....So once again. F China.
Reply Quote
1
Proposition Joe
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to H.E. Pennypacker • 2:34p, 4/1/20
Yeah, if one read between the lines along the way even ignoring what went on in Italy/China, you could see decisions made by certain sectors that didn't quite align with the "everything's under control" talk we got from the White House.

On March 13th the Pentagon told members of the armed forces and DOD not to fly domestically anymore.

That day we still had the NYSE floors open.
Reply Quote
Dddfff
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to benchmark • 2:53p, 4/1/20
AG
benchmark said:
Per Univ of Wash IHME current model ... 32k deaths by April 15 and 68k by May 1. April is going to be a brutal month.

I'm thinking more Americans died in April 2019 than will in April 2020.
Reply Quote
PFG
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Dddfff • 2:56p, 4/1/20
AG
Quote:
I'm thinking more Americans died in April 2019 than will in April 2020

Will bump at end of April.

This won't age well for you, sir.
Reply Quote
2
TheAngelFlight
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to PFG • 3:24p, 4/1/20
PFG said:
Quote:
I'm thinking more Americans died in April 2019 than will in April 2020
Will bump at end of April.

This won't age well for you, sir.
Maybe, maybe not. Hopefully we're preventing traffic deaths, flu deaths, and some other deaths, too.


But either way, knowing this person's posting history, I'm going to preemptively say lower death numbers wouldn't mean we made bad policy decisions re: shelter in place, etc.
Reply Quote
D206
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to PFG • 3:26p, 4/1/20
AG
I'm sure some people just don't give a F as you said but a lot of people don't have the option to stop going to work and stay in the house other than 1 trip to the grocery store per week. There are food deserts in Houston where people have issues acquiring food under normal circumstances. You cannot get mad at strangers for not doing what you have decided they should do. A lot of them have anxieties about going out but not a lot of choice in the matter. Keep yourself and your family as safe as you can and let it go because at the end of the day you can't change other people. Most people are trying to do the best they can.
Reply Quote
Dddfff
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to PFG • 12:50p, 4/11/20
AG
PFG said:
Quote:
I'm thinking more Americans died in April 2019 than will in April 2020

Will bump at end of April.

This won't age well for you, sir.

Looking forward to the bump and you showing me how this didn't age well!
Reply Quote
2
Philip J Fry
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
1:04p, 4/11/20
AG
It's April 11th now. We hit 2K deaths yesterday. I'd say that model is looking pretty realistic at the moment.
Reply Quote
Page 1 of 2 ▼
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.