On the death toll and the confirmed, we are up to 4,000 deaths now and five thousand more confirmed than the day before.
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Just when i thought we were slowing down
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Last: 5 yr ago by ttuhscaggie
When have we slowed down? The deaths will keep coming for weeks. The number of cases will still rise also but at lower numbers. 
We were staying around 20k or less. Unless I read it wrong. In Virginia we are under the stay at home order but you wouldn't know it. People all over the place
Testing is ramped up every week. The rise in cases is not a strong leading indicator of spread of virus as it is more an indication that more testing is occurring which is actually a positive.
Thanks not trying to be negative. Was just hoping it would be better by now.
Yeah, not slowing down for awhile...testing while finally ramping up lately was lagging and we are still in the peaking phase. Not to mention all this data lags from "reality". Long ways to go.
Palovic said:
Testing is ramped up every week. The rise in cases is not a strong leading indicator of spread of virus as it is more an indication that more testing is occurring which is actually a positive.
No, it also indicates that the virus is spreading. If it wasn't spreading all the tests would be coming back negative.
Dr.HeadCase said:Palovic said:
Testing is ramped up every week. The rise in cases is not a strong leading indicator of spread of virus as it is more an indication that more testing is occurring which is actually a positive.
No, it also indicates that the virus is spreading. If it wasn't spreading all the tests would be coming back negative.
We already knew the virus was spreading, the tests are simply the proof and they will help everyone to understand the extent of the spread. I wish there were enough tests that people who felt they already had it and recovered could be tested in order to return to work & a more normal life. Maybe over the next month we can get there.
My comments state that confirmed cases from testing it is not a strong leading indicator of spread. There are many asymptomatic that are not tested and even symptomatic with mild symptoms that are not tested which would impact the numbers greatly.Dr.HeadCase said:Palovic said:
Testing is ramped up every week. The rise in cases is not a strong leading indicator of spread of virus as it is more an indication that more testing is occurring which is actually a positive.
No, it also indicates that the virus is spreading. If it wasn't spreading all the tests would be coming back negative.
I think we can all agree the virus has been spreading in the US potentially as early as December last year.
Johnny-I know it is easy to get sucked into the numbers and see negative. It happens to me from time to time as well. This is a moment in time where days feel like weeks and weeks feel like months. Testing is an absolute critical component of combating this and every disease known to man and it is extremely positive to see that more are getting tested. If we can knock turnaround times to hours (minutes even better) on testing so we can detect early in the infection process....we will have this controlled with the anti-virals being used now to treat.
Sure, but we KNEW this was going to happen. I still don't understand this sentiment. We were NEVER stopping this thing.Dr.HeadCase said:Palovic said:
Testing is ramped up every week. The rise in cases is not a strong leading indicator of spread of virus as it is more an indication that more testing is occurring which is actually a positive.
No, it also indicates that the virus is spreading. If it wasn't spreading all the tests would be coming back negative.
We were 400-600 deaths per day for a while.
Yesterday we jumped to 912 deaths on Tuesday. We will break 1,000 deaths per day soon.
It wasn't long ago I was horrified to hear Italy was at 300 deaths per day.
Yesterday we jumped to 912 deaths on Tuesday. We will break 1,000 deaths per day soon.
It wasn't long ago I was horrified to hear Italy was at 300 deaths per day.
beerad12man said:Sure, but we KNEW this was going to happen. I still don't understand this sentiment. We were NEVER stopping this thing.Dr.HeadCase said:Palovic said:
Testing is ramped up every week. The rise in cases is not a strong leading indicator of spread of virus as it is more an indication that more testing is occurring which is actually a positive.
No, it also indicates that the virus is spreading. If it wasn't spreading all the tests would be coming back negative.
Yep. Every hour delayed in shutting down means the curve gets flattened at a higher point, and more people get sick and die. This has been obvious for ~4 weeks, but our leaders refused to acknowledge basic math. Math always matters, and ignoring it doesn't change it.
As of yesterday, it was estimated that California has 57K tests in backlog that are pending processing. As a state, they are processing around 2000 tests per day and have been stuck at that rate for several days. At their current rate it will take a month to process the tests they have already taken. If you started feeling sick and got tested right away in California, you could be died before your results come back.
As a nation, we haven't increased our rate of testing for the past 6 days.
But again, correct me if I'm wrong, we are getting the results back from about a week out, so wouldn't these numbers be a week old when testing did start to increase at a high rate?
Most tests come back negative. Depending on the area, the average is between 7% and 10% positive results.Dr.HeadCase said:Palovic said:
Testing is ramped up every week. The rise in cases is not a strong leading indicator of spread of virus as it is more an indication that more testing is occurring which is actually a positive.
No, it also indicates that the virus is spreading. If it wasn't spreading all the tests would be coming back negative.
Places like NYC are probably skewing the overall percentage.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Deaths are likely to rise for the next couple of weeks. We'll hit a thousand deaths per day today or tomorrow and won't go under that for around a month.
They expect the numbers to rise rather dramatically through mid April and then begin to decrease slowly.
lets hope that we can even out the distribution. Currently 4-5 states make 80% of that death total and those major cities will be the ones at risk to be overwhelmed.Bruce Almighty said:
Deaths are likely to rise for the next couple of weeks. We'll hit a thousand deaths per day today or tomorrow and won't go under that for around a month.
Also that the same spike doesnt happen in all the major cities, which is apparently the scenario that the 100k to 200k deaths is based onPalovic said:lets hope that we can even out the distribution. Currently 4-5 states make 80% of that death total and those major cities will be the ones at risk to be overwhelmed.Bruce Almighty said:
Deaths are likely to rise for the next couple of weeks. We'll hit a thousand deaths per day today or tomorrow and won't go under that for around a month.
Why anyone would think we are slowing down blows my mind. Good grief.
The test themselves doesn't take 7 days or 10 days. That's just how long it takes these labs to run through their backlog to get to the test and then send the result. With backlogs growing, that's a sign that the daily test capacity is not keeping up with the people needing testing. California is averaging 2,000 test results per day over the last week, but their current backlog is 57,000. That's not a sign that the amount of people needing tests is flat, that's a sign that their testing labs are not keeping up with the testing volume required.beerad12man said:Some are a week delay, right? Testing from 7 days ago seems to be pretty significant increase from testing of 14 days ago.HotardAg07 said:
Testing is not ramping up as much as you think.
Shaun Shaikh '07
Not sure why you were thinking we were slowing down. It's going to be weeks before we will hit the peak of the curve.
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AG
I think 2nd or 3rd week of May.AG 2000' said:
Not sure why you were thinking we were slowing down. It's going to be weeks before we will hit the peak of the curve.
Our growth rates have slowed dramatically.
Cases
1 day growth rate:
Current (3/31) - 15.3%
Peak (3/19) - 53.3%
3 day growth rate:
Current (3/31) - 15.0%
Peak (3/20) - 45.6%
7 day growth rate:
Current (3/31) - 18.3%
Peak (3/22) - 40.1%
Deaths
7 day rate:
Current (3/31) - 20.9%
Peak (3/24) - 32.0%
7 day CFR
Current (3/31) - 4.76%
Peak (pre 3/15) - 10.37%
Cases
1 day growth rate:
Current (3/31) - 15.3%
Peak (3/19) - 53.3%
3 day growth rate:
Current (3/31) - 15.0%
Peak (3/20) - 45.6%
7 day growth rate:
Current (3/31) - 18.3%
Peak (3/22) - 40.1%
Deaths
7 day rate:
Current (3/31) - 20.9%
Peak (3/24) - 32.0%
7 day CFR
Current (3/31) - 4.76%
Peak (pre 3/15) - 10.37%
Personally I think that would be a terrible idea. Some people who had not had it and felt pressure to go back to work would likely try to get it in order to go back to work and they would endanger everyone they were around and we would end up right back where we started. Additionally, those most vulnerable and likely to feel that pressure are likely now uninsured.bmart97 said:Dr.HeadCase said:Palovic said:
Testing is ramped up every week. The rise in cases is not a strong leading indicator of spread of virus as it is more an indication that more testing is occurring which is actually a positive.
No, it also indicates that the virus is spreading. If it wasn't spreading all the tests would be coming back negative.
We already knew the virus was spreading, the tests are simply the proof and they will help everyone to understand the extent of the spread. I wish there were enough tests that people who felt they already had it and recovered could be tested in order to return to work & a more normal life. Maybe over the next month we can get there.
I don't think trickle in economics is anymore a thing then trickle down was.
bmart97 said:Dr.HeadCase said:Palovic said:
Testing is ramped up every week. The rise in cases is not a strong leading indicator of spread of virus as it is more an indication that more testing is occurring which is actually a positive.
No, it also indicates that the virus is spreading. If it wasn't spreading all the tests would be coming back negative.
We already knew the virus was spreading, the tests are simply the proof and they will help everyone to understand the extent of the spread. I wish there were enough tests that people who felt they already had it and recovered could be tested in order to return to work & a more normal life. Maybe over the next month we can get there.
Absolutely the answer. Get recovered people back to work. Test pass work!
This is where it's at. Cases are accelerating less quickly. Not just confirmed cases but mortality as well. Proof that social distancing/stay at home is working.
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